KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, October 9, 2018
6:00 AM ET. September NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (expected 108.0; previous 108.8)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +3.6%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.9%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.8%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)
10:00 AM ET. October IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 55.7)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 53.3)
Wednesday, October 10, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 352.6)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +0.0%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 240.7)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +0.1%)
Refinance Idx (previous 945.9)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -0.1%)
8:30 AM ET. September PPI
PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous -0.1%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous -0.1%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.0%)
10:00 AM ET. August Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.8%; previous +0.6%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.9M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.7M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.2M)
Thursday, October 11, 2018
8:30 AM ET. September CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +1.9%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +2.4%; previous +2.7%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.3%; previous +2.2%)
8:30 AM ET. September Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 210K; previous 207K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -8K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1650000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -13K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2866B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +98B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 403.964M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +7.975M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 235.221M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.459M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 136.131M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.75M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.4%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.174M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.175M)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
12:00 PM ET. September Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
1:00 PM ET. SEC Open Meeting
2:00 PM ET. September Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, October 12, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1431.1K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1525.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 435.4K)
8:30 AM ET. September Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +0.2%; previous -0.6%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.2%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -3.9%)
10:00 AM ET. October University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 100.0; previous 100.8)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 91.1)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 116.1)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The December NASDAQ 100 closed slightly higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 38% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 7215.52. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7580.15 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 7728.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is today's low crossing at 7286.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 7215.52.
The December S&P 500 closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-week's decline, the 25% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2856.52 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2914.37 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 2945.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 25% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2856.52. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at 2808.13.
The Dow closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of last-week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that short-term top is in or near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,427.12 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow renews the rally off April's low, psychological resistance crossing at 27,000 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 26,951.81. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at 27,000. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,427.12. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,968.81.
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December T-bonds closed down 11/32's at 136-30.
December T-bonds closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 134-04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-07 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 139-09. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-07. First support is today's low crossing at 136-21. Second support is weekly support crossing at 134-04.
December T-notes closed down 5-points at 117-210.
December T-notes closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 114.192 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.215 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 118.118. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.215. First support is today's low crossing at 117.135. Second support is monthly support crossing at 114.192.
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November crude oil closed lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.22 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 76.90. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.22.First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.02. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.97.
November heating oil closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 230.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off August's low, the November-2014 high crossing at 254.68 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 245.00. Second resistance is the November-2014 high crossing at 254.68. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 237.42. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 230.78.
November unleaded gas closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 204.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at 217.77 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 215.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 217.77. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 204.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 197.29.
November Henry natural gas closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the aforementioned rally, the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.991 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.294. Second resistance is the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.112. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.991.
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The December Dollar closed slightly higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 96.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 95.78. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. First support is September's low crossing at 93.39. Second support is July's low crossing at 93.04.
The December Euro closed slightly lower on Monday as it extends the decline off Monday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 114.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.11 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.11 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 118.93. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 119.36. First support is today's low crossing at 115.23. Second support is August's low crossing at 114.09.
The December British Pound closed slightly lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3140 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December renews the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 1.2845 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3350. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. First support is September's low crossing at 1.2845. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.2735.
The December Swiss Franc closed steady to slightly lower on Monday as it extends the decline off September's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, July's low crossing at 1.0082 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0345 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0247. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0345. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.0108. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.0082.
The December Canadian Dollar closed slightly lower on Monday as it extends the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 78.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 78.36. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 78.72. First support is the reaction low crossing at 76.56. Second support is September's low crossing at 75.75.
The December Japanese Yen closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0892 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0892. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0901. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.0877. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
December gold closed sharply lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1184.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 1167.10. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1220.70 are needed to renew the rally off August's low. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1220.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1244.60.First support is the reaction low crossing at 1184.30. Second support is August's low crossing at 1167.10.
December silver closed lower on Monday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 14.950 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.388 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 14.950. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 15.070. First support is September's low crossing at 13.965. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.
December copper closed slightly higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 288.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 288.85. Second resistance is the July-5th gap crossing at 293.10. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.80. Second support is August's low crossing at 257.45.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down 1 3/4-cents at 3.66 1/2.
December corn closed lower on Monday as it extends last-week's trading range below resistance marked by September's high crossing at 3.69 3/4. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 3.82 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 3.54 1/2 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 3.69 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.82 1/2. First support is reaction low crossing at 3.54 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.42 1/2.
December wheat closed down 7 1/2-cents at 5.13 1/2.
December wheat posted a key reversal down on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.39 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction crossing at 5.32 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.39. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 5.05 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 6 3/4-cents at 5.17 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat posted a key reversal down on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.46 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.35 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.46 1/2. First support is October's low crossing at 5.06 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down 2 1/4-cents at 5.89.
December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Monday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 5.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.96 3/4 would open the door for a possible test of the August 31st reaction high crossing at 6.02. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.96 3/4. Second resistance is the August 31st high crossing at 6.02. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 5.72. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4.
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November soybeans closed up 1-cents at 8.70.
November soybeans closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off September's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 907 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.46 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 8.74 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.07. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.46 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4.
December soybean meal closed up $0.10 at 318.60.
December soybean meal closed slightly higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 339.40 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 289.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 322.40. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 339.40. First support is September's low crossing at 301.60. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 289.50.
December soybean oil closed up 20 pts. at 29.61.
December soybean oil closed higher on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 30.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 30.01. Second resistance is the the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 30.53. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.29. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.60.
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December hogs closed unchanged at $57.55.
December hogs closed unchanged on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August low, June's high crossing at 60.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 54.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 59.95. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 60.75. First support is the reaction low crossing at 54.52. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 53.34.
December cattle closed up $0.10 at 118.25.
December cattle closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, weekly resistance crossing at 122.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 119.75. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 122.88. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.28.
October Feeder cattle closed down $0.10 at $157.67.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 157.43 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October resumes the rally off August's low, weekly resistance crossing at 160.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 159.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 160.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 157.43. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 153.24.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee gapped up and closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off September's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 113.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
December cocoa closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.61 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off August's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 18.71 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed higher on Monday as it extended the rally off September's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the June 26th high crossing at 13.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.56 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.
December cotton closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 74.00 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!