For weather that effects the natural gas market(Cooling Degree Days in the Summer help gauge residential natural gas use because natural gas is used to generate electricity for air conditioning...........and now, to generate residential heating:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/14678/
Hurricane Michael:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/14717/
From Natural Gas Intelligence:
November Natural Gas Futures Called Sharply Higher on Expected Heating Demand Gains
9:00 AM
Natural gas futures were trading sharply higher Monday morning as forecasts over the weekend added significant heating demand to the outlook; shortly before 9 a.m. ET, the November Nymex contract was trading 10.1 cents higher to $3.244/MMBtu.
Storage is Very Low for this time of year!!
Storage is below the bottom of the previous 5 year range and also almost 700 bcf below last year at this time!
This is why the temperature forecast matters....in the Summer/cooling season and Winter/heating season. We are having some strong late season residential cooling demand right now and will have a spike up of early season residential heating demand later this week.
EIA storage report from last Thursday. +98 bcf, a bit of a bearish surprise.
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (09/28/17) | 5-year average (2013-17) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 09/28/18 | 09/21/18 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 763 | 729 | 34 | 34 | 859 | -11.2 | 848 | -10.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 836 | 800 | 36 | 36 | 985 | -15.1 | 973 | -14.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 177 | 173 | 4 | 4 | 220 | -19.5 | 206 | -14.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 262 | 259 | 3 | 3 | 310 | -15.5 | 335 | -21.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 829 | 807 | 22 | 22 | 1,127 | -26.4 | 1,111 | -25.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 181 | 173 | 8 | 8 | 301 | -39.9 | 288 | -37.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 648 | 634 | 14 | 14 | 827 | -21.6 | 823 | -21.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,866 | 2,768 | 98 | 98 | 3,502 | -18.2 | 3,473 | -17.5 | |||||||||||||||||
These were the temperatures for the 7 day period in that report:
These are the temperatures that will be used for the next report which comes out this Thursday at 9:30am:
Natural Gas price charts
We finally broke out above $3! On Thursday, the EIA number was bearish though and we pulled back on Thu/Fri. The market is higher on Sunday evening, currently on the highs, 3.194 +51.
Week 1 weather is bullish, including some shut ins in the Gulf from Michael and the first significant wave of residential heating demand(from chilly temps) since last Spring. Late week 2 temperatures shift bearish as the recent extremes morph into mild weather across most of the country.
| Natural gas 3 months |
Naturalgas 1 year below
Naturalgas 5 years below
| Naturalgas10years below
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Previous comments:
From Natural Gas Intelligence:
November Natural Gas Futures Called Sharply Higher on Expected Heating Demand Gains
9:00 AM
Natural gas futures were trading sharply higher Monday morning as forecasts over the weekend added significant heating demand to the outlook; shortly before 9 a.m. ET, the November Nymex contract was trading 10.1 cents higher to $3.244/MMBtu.
From Natural Gas Intelligence, closing comments Monday:
Strong Cash, Spiking Demand Send November NatGas Soaring Despite Record Production
5:32 PM
Lower 48 gas production returned to record highs, but continued strength in the cash market and substantial increases in heating demand projected for mid-October lifted the Nymex November natural gas futures contract up a whopping 12.4 cents Monday to settle at $3.267.
Might we see a withdrawal in October?
Not much chance of that unless the pattern greatly amplifies towards the end of the month and is aimed towards the Northeast much more.
The big cold shot coming later this week, into early next week has it greatest anomalies in the Plains.............all the way down to Texas, where alot of people live but highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s wont be using a tremendous amount of ng.
The Upper Midwest, places like Chicago to Detroit will have some decent HDD's for several days.
In the Northeast, temps will be just a bit below normal where they will have some heating needs. Not so much in the heavily populated Midatlantic to Southeast.
I would guess that we will have at least +25 bcf, unless the pattern turns much colder and hits the highest population centers harder.
Larry, what do you think?