Excessive Rain threat

Really goes up later this week into early next week

Current Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Severe Storm Risk.

Some stronger storms possible but heavy rains will be the main threat.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
Current Day 2 Outlook
Current Day 3 Outlook
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

High Temperatures today and Saturday.

The heat waxes and wanes along the boundary!

Remaining very chilly N.Plains........hot in the Southeast.

Highs days 3-7.

 Very chilly to cold air N.Plains/N.Rockies.  Very warm to near record warmth south/east of that.............initially.

However, the cool(but moderated) air finally wins the war.

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 Tale of 2 extremely opposite temperature regimes! Above average eastern 1/2(near records). Well below normal N.Plains/Rockies.....near record cold.

A slight shift in the location of the boundary between these extreme air masses will greatly change the temp forecast for areas close to the boundary.

Cooler air shifts southeast mid/late next week.

Low Temperature Departures:

Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

Front between very warm and cold air during the entire period..................goes back and forth..........initially, it's location will vary with every forecast update. 

Potent storm/wave development possible along the front early in the week that finally kicks it southeast mid/late week. 

Dew points.

 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!  

Higher dew points receded a bit but remaining south of the Ohio River. They are surging back north a bit now.  Extremely dry air N.Plains to Upper Midwest to Northeast.

Current Surface features:

Cold front pushing south and east is making more progress than predicted earlier this week. ........temporarily.

It will be going back north on Friday.

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Latest radar loop.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Satellite picture.

Rains the past 24 hours

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

Soil moisture anomaly:

Too wet in a large area from one of our wettest Septembers in history......but it's getting even wetter here in early October!

The 2nd map gets updated once a week.

Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Note how wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country!

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Friday.  Very sharp contrast in individual members, many with opposite extremes. The average of all of them together looks zonal but the majority don't have zonal...........so the usually dependable average is very low confidence.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Oct 20, 2018 00 UTC

Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.

Today:  Southern edge of cold air in Canada in the northern/central Plains back west! Very warm air to the southeast is moving around.

In 5+ days:

Heat ridge in the Southeast finally giving out. Cold in the N.Plains surges southeast.

In 10+ days: Cold shifts much farther southeast but moderated greatly. Warming up out West.

Day 15:  Extreme anomalies completely gone. Mild for mid-October.

The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.

 Strong upper level ridging Western Canada to Alaska..........possibly shifting east?

Heating degree days(from cold weather) are replacing cooling degree days(from hot weather) in October.

Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

Precip below:

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Updated  this afternoon.

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability