INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Oct. 4, 2018, 4:24 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, October 5, 2018  



8:30 AM ET. September U.S. Employment Report



                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +185K; previous +201K)



                       Unemployment Rate (expected 3.8%; previous 3.9%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.16)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.10)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.37%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +2.9%)



                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)



                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)



                       Government Payrolls (previous -3K)



                       Private Payroll (previous +204K)



                       Participation Rate (previous 62.7%)



                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg



8:30 AM ET. August U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services



                       Trade Balance (USD) (expected -53.5B; previous -50.08B)



                       Exports (USD) (previous 211.08B)



                       Exports, M/M% (previous -1.0%)



                       Imports (USD) (previous 261.16B)



                       Imports, M/M% (previous +0.9%)



3:00 PM ET. August Consumer Credit



                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +14.8B; previous +16.64B)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The December NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Thursday as investors reacted to a recent surge in government bond yields. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7514.85 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's decline, September's low crossing at 7420.50 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off April's low, upside targets will be hard to project with the index trading in uncharted territory. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 7728.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is September's low crossing at 7420.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7343.25. 



The December S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average low crossing at 2913.49 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2881.56 is the next downside target. If December resumes this summer's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is September's high crossing at 2945.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the September 18th reaction low crossing at 2885.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2881.56.  



The Dow closed sharply lower on Thursday, its worst day in more than three months as investors reacted to a recent surge in government bond yields. Today's decline is the worst one-day decline since about May 29. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that short-term top is in or near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,368.92 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow extends the rally off April's low, psychological resistance crossing at 27,000 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 26,951.81. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,368.92. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,928.13.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



December T-bonds closed down 15/32's at 137-01.



December T-bonds extended this week's decline to another new contract low on Thursday. A short covering rally tempered early-session losses and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 134-04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-25 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-25. Second resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 141-04. First support is today's low crossing at 137-08. Second support is weekly support crossing at 134-04.        



December T-notes closed down 70-points at 117-290.



December T-notes closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 117.180 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.276 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.276. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.146. First support is today's low crossing at 117.195. Second support is monthly support crossing at 117.180.        



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



November crude oil closed sharply lower on Thursday posting its largest one-day percentage decline since mid-August in response to the largest weekly increase in U.S. crude stockpiles and talk of production increases among major oil producers. Fundamentals have shifted in favor of the bears this week with a huge build in commercial crude oil stocks and news that Saudi Arabia and Russia made a private agreement weeks ago to increase output to help offset the declining exports from Iran.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.22 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 76.90. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.22.First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 73.41. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.26.  



November heating oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, the November-2014 high crossing at 254.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 229.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 245.00. Second resistance is the November-2014 high crossing at 254.68. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 234.68. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 229.04.



November unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at 217.77 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 203.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 215.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 217.77. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 208.11. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 203.22.



November Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the aforementioned rally, the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.954 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 3.261. Second resistance is the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.079. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.954.     



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The December Dollar closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Friday's low, August's high crossing at 96.45 is the next upside target. Closes below September's low crossing at 93.93 would renew the decline off August's high. First resistance is today's high crossing at 95.78. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. First support is September's low crossing at 93.39. Second support is July's low crossing at 93.04.     



The December Euro closed slightly lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off Monday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 114.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.22 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December resumes the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 119.36 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 118.93. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 119.36. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 115.26. Second support is August's low crossing at 114.09.     



The December British Pound closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3129 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 1.2845 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3350. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. First support is September's low crossing at 1.2845. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.2735.   



The December Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off September's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, July's low crossing at 1.0082 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0370 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0317. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0370. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0129. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.0082. 



The December Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.95 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 78.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 78.36. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 78.72. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 76.56. Second support is September's low crossing at 75.75. 



The December Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0894 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0887. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0894. First support is today's low crossing at 0.0877. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876.



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



December gold closed slightly higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1207.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1220.70 are needed to renew the rally off August's low. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 1184.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 1167.10. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1220.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1244.60. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1184.30. Second support is August's low crossing at 1167.10.



December silver closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.355 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 14.950 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 14.950. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 15.070. First support is September's low crossing at 13.965. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.        



December copper closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 288.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 273.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 288.85. Second resistance is the July-5th gap crossing at 293.10. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 273.00. Second support is August's low crossing at 257.45.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed up 3 1/4-cents at 3.68. 



December corn closed higher on Thursday and is poised to resume the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above September's high crossing at 3.69 3/4 would confirm that the intermediate trend has turned sideways to higher. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 3.54 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 3.69 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.82 1/2. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 3.54 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.42 1/2. 



December wheat closed up 2 1/2-cents at 5.17 3/4. 



December wheat closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.40 1/4 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction crossing at 5.32 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.40 1/4. First support is September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.90.  



December Kansas City Wheat closed up 3 1/2-cents at 5.22 1/4. 



December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.48 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.35 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.48. First support is September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.93 3/4.



December Minneapolis wheat closed unchanged at 5.89 3/4. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed unchanged on Thursday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.97 1/4 would open the door for a possible test of the August 31st reaction high crossing at 6.02. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 5.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.97 1/4. Second resistance is the August 31st high crossing at 6.02. First support is Monday's low crossing at 5.72. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed down 1 1/4-cents at 8.60 1/4.

November soybeans closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 907 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.43 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 8.70 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.07. First support is September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 8.10 1/2.  



December soybean meal closed up $1.40 at 312.60. 



December soybean meal closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 319.70 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 289.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 319.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 339.40. First support is September's low crossing at 301.60. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 289.50.



December soybean oil closed down 24 pts. at 29.60. 



December soybean oil posted a key reversal down on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 30.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 30.01. Second resistance is the the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 30.53. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.07. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.47.  

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed up $0.03 at $67.50. 



October hogs closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August low, the 87% retracement level of the February-August-decline crossing at 68.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 67.95. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-August-decline crossing at 68.41. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 63.55. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.31.    



October cattle closed up $0.43 at 113.63. 



October cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 115.24 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 114.35. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 115.24. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.51. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.73.   

 

October Feeder cattle closed down $0.90 at $156.97. 



October Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 156.87 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October resumes the rally off August's low, weekly resistance crossing at 160.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 159.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 160.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 156.87. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 153.02.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidates above the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.45. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 113.31 is the next upside target.           



December cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 18.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.82 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.   



March sugar closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off September's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, September's high crossing at 12.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.52 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. 



December cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 74.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 

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