INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Oct. 3, 2018, 4:16 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Thursday, October 4, 2018 



7:30 AM ET. September Challenger Job-Cut Report



                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +41.8%)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1703.2K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 872.2K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 657.1K)



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 214K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +12K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 1661000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +16K)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:00 AM ET. August Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)



                       Total Orders, M/M% (expected +2.4%; previous -0.8%)



                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.4%)



                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.2%)



                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -1.7%)



                       Durable Goods, M/M%



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2768B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +46B)

                       

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



Friday, October 5, 2018  



8:30 AM ET. September U.S. Employment Report



                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +185K; previous +201K)



                       Unemployment Rate (expected 3.8%; previous 3.9%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.16)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.10)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.37%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +2.9%)



                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)



                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)



                       Government Payrolls (previous -3K)



                       Private Payroll (previous +204K)



                       Participation Rate (previous 62.7%)



                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg



8:30 AM ET. August U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services



                       Trade Balance (USD) (expected -53.5B; previous -50.08B)



                       Exports (USD) (previous 211.08B)



                       Exports, M/M% (previous -1.0%)



                       Imports (USD) (previous 261.16B)



                       Imports, M/M% (previous +0.9%)



3:00 PM ET. August Consumer Credit



                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +14.8B; previous +16.64B)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The December NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, upside targets will be hard to project with the index trading in uncharted territory. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7515.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 7728.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the reaction crossing at 7420.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7343.25. 



The December S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes this summer's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average low crossing at 2912.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2945.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2912.67. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2880.76.  



The Dow closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this year's rally into record territory. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off April's low psychological resistance crossing at 27,000 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,342.41 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 26,951.81. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 26,609.35. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,342.41.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



December T-bonds closed down 1-28/32's at 138-20.



December T-bonds plunged to a new contract low on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 134-04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 141-01 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 141-04. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 141-01. First support is today's low crossing at 138-03. Second support is weekly support crossing at 134-04.        



December T-notes closed down 210-points at 118-050.



December T-notes closed sharply lower on Wednesday and tested May's low crossing at 118.000. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 117.180 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.313 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.313. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.154. First support is today's low crossing at 118.000. Second support is monthly support crossing at 117.180.        



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



November crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this year's rally. Today's rally was underpinned by reports, which showed declines in Iranian exports due to pending U.S. oil sanctions, and uncertainty surrounding the ability of other major oil producers to make up for the loss, lifted U.S. and global prices back to nearly four-year highs. Today's strong gains came despite data from the U.S. government, which showed the largest weekly rise of the year in domestic crude inventories. The market is struggling to reconcile the supply risk from Iran and questions about how much Saudis will pump and a bearish report.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 76.90. Second resistance isthe 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.22.First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 72.99. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.93.  



November heating oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, the November-2014 high crossing at 254.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 228.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 245.00. Second resistance is the November-2014 high crossing at 254.68. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 232.98. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 228.09.



November unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at 217.77 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 202.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 215.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 217.77. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 207.07. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 202.42.



November Henry natural gas closed higher for the third day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the aforementioned rally, the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.935 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.261. Second resistance is the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.055. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.935.     



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The December Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Friday's low, August's high crossing at 96.45 is the next upside target. Closes below September's low crossing at 93.93 would renew the decline off August's high. First resistance is today's high crossing at 95.46. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. First support is September's low crossing at 93.39. Second support is July's low crossing at 93.04.     



The December Euro closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off Monday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 114.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 117.40 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December resumes the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 119.36 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 118.93. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 119.36. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 115.73. Second support is August's low crossing at 114.09.     



The December British Pound closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 1.2845 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2970 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3350. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. First support is September's low crossing at 1.2845. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.2735.   



The December Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off September's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 1.0132 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0385 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0385. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.0559. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0163. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.0132. 



The December Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 78.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 78.36. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 78.72. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 76.56. Second support is September's low crossing at 75.75. 



The December Japanese Yen closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0895 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0888. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0895. First support is today's low crossing at 0.0878. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876.



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



December gold closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1207.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1220.70 are needed to renew the rally off August's low. If December resumes last-Thursday's decline, August's low crossing at 1167.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1220.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1244.60. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1184.30. Second support is August's low crossing at 1167.10.



December silver closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.781 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.334 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.781. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 15.070. First support is September's low crossing at 13.965. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.        



December copper closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 288.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 273.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 288.85. Second resistance is the July-5th gap crossing at 293.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 273.30. Second support is August's low crossing at 257.45.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed down 3-cents at 3.64 1/2. 



December corn closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above September's high crossing at 3.69 3/4 would confirm that the intermediate trend has turned sideways to higher. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 3.54 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 3.69 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.82 1/2. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 3.54 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.42 1/2. 



December wheat closed down 4-cents at 5.15 1/4. 



December wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.41 1/4 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction crossing at 5.32 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.41 1/4. First support is September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.90.  



December Kansas City Wheat closed down 3 3/4-cents at 5.18 3/4. 



December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.49 is the next upside target. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.35 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.49. First support is September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.93 3/4.



December Minneapolis wheat closed down 1 3/4-cents at 5.89 3/4. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.97 1/2 would open the door for a possible test of the August 31st reaction high crossing at 6.02. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 5.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.97 1/2. Second resistance is the August 31st high crossing at 6.02. First support is Monday's low crossing at 5.72. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed down 4 1/4-cents at 8.61 3/4.



November soybeans closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 907. If November renews this summer's decline, September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 8.70 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.07. First support is September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 8.10 1/2.  



December soybean meal closed down $3.40 at 311.70. 



December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 320.10 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 289.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 320.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 339.40. First support is September's low crossing at 301.60. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 289.50.



December soybean oil closed up 14 pts. at 29.80. 



December soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 30.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 29.88. Second resistance is the the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 30.53. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.42. Second support is September's low crossing at 27.13.  

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed up $1.05 at $67.48. 



October hogs closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August low, the 87% retracement level of the February-August-decline crossing at 68.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 67.55. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-August-decline crossing at 68.41. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 62.93. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.68.    



October cattle closed down $0.78 at 113.20. 



October cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 115.24 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 114.35. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 115.24. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.28. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.68.   

 

October Feeder cattle closed down $1.20 at $157.87. 



October Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 156.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October resumes the rally off August's low, weekly resistance crossing at 160.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 159.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 160.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 156.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152.96.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low but remains above the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.46. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 113.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.           



December cocoa closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 18.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.96 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.   



March sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off September's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, September's high crossing at 12.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.46 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March renews the decline off September's high, the June-2008 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 9.44 is the next downside target. 



December cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 74.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 

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