KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, October 2, 2018
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -0.7%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +4.0%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.8%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.8%)
9:45 AM ET. September ISM-NY Report on Business
Business Index (previous 76.5)
4:00 PM ET. September Domestic Auto Industry Sales
Auto Sales Annualized (expected 16.7M; previous 16.72M)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.9M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.9M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.9M)
Wednesday, October 3, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 352.5)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +2.9%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 240.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +2.6%)
Refinance Idx (previous 946.8)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +3.2%)
8:15 AM ET. September ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +185000; previous +163000)
9:45 AM ET. September US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.8)
10:00 AM ET. September Online Help Wanted Index
10:00 AM ET. August Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. IMF World Economic Outlook analytical chapters published
10:00 AM ET. September ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business
Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 58.0; previous 58.5)
Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 60.7)
Prices Idx (previous 62.8)
Employment Idx (previous 56.7)
New Orders Idx (previous 60.4)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 395.989M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.852M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 235.68M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.53M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 137.881M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.241M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.4%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.999M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.135M)
11:00 AM ET. September Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 53.5)
Thursday, October 4, 2018
7:30 AM ET. September Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +41.8%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1703.2K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 872.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 657.1K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 214K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +12K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1661000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +16K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. August Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (expected +2.4%; previous -0.8%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.4%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -1.7%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2768B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +46B)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, October 5, 2018
8:30 AM ET. September U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +185K; previous +201K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.8%; previous 3.9%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.16)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.10)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.37%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +2.9%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous -3K)
Private Payroll (previous +204K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.7%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
8:30 AM ET. August U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (expected -53.5B; previous -50.08B)
Exports (USD) (previous 211.08B)
Exports, M/M% (previous -1.0%)
Imports (USD) (previous 261.16B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
3:00 PM ET. August Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +14.8B; previous +16.64B)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of its recent gains.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 7420.50 are needed to confirm that an important top has been posted. If September extends the rally off September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 7728.75. Second resistance isunknown. First support is the reaction low crossing at 7420.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7343.25.
The December S&P 500 was was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 2916.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2945.00. Second resistance is is unknown. First support is the reaction lowcrossing at 2916.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2878.27.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower price are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 138-28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 141-09 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 141-09. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-September-decline crossing at 142-11. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 139-17. Second support is May's low crossing at 138-28.
December T-notes was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.023 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 118.000 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.023. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-September-decline crossing at 119.154. First support is September's low crossing at 118.110. Second support is May's low crossing at 118.000.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: NovemberNymex crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's huge rally.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 75.91. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.23. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 72.48. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.54.
November heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, the November-2014 high crossing at 254.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 227.03 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 241.76. Second resistance is the November-2014 high crossing at 254.68. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 231.04. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 227.03.
November unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at 217.77 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 201.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 213.84. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 217.77. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 205.79. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 201.46.
November Henry natural gas was higher overnight and as it extends the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.894 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November extends the rally off September's low, the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457 is the next upside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.139. Second resistance is the July-2015 high crossing at 3.457. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.017. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.912.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 96.45 is the next upside target. Closes below September's low crossing at 93.39 would renew the decline off August's high. First resistance is September's high crossing at 95.28. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. First support is September's low crossing at 93.39. Second support is July's low crossing at 93.04.
The December Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, August's low crossing at 114.09 is the next downside target. Closes above September's high crossing at 118.93 would renew the rally off August's low. First resistance is July's high crossing at 119.36. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 120.14. First support is September's low crossing at 116.12. Second support is August's low crossing at 114.09.
The December British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3047 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 1.3435 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.3586. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3047. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.2845.
The December Swiss Franc was slightly lower overnight as it extended the decline off September's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 1.0132 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0395 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.0552. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0605. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0217. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.0132.
The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of 2017-2018-decline crossing at 78.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2017-2018-decline crossing at 78.72. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2017-2018-decline crossing at 79.61. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 77.48. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.90.
The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0896 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0890. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0896. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.0881. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.0876.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1203.30 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If October extends last week's decline, August's low crossing at 1162.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1215.70. Second resistance is the July-26th reaction high crossing at 1239.80. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1180.00. Second support is August's low crossing at 1162.70.
December silver was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.796 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.304 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.796. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.070. First support is September's low crossing at 13.965. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.
December copper was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 272.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes this month's rally, the July 25th reaction high crossing at 288.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 25th reaction high crossing at 288.85. Second resistance is the July 10th reaction high crossing at 290.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 272.28. Second support is September's low crossing at 258.00.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.67 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.58 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above September's high crossing at 3.69 3/4 are needed to confirm that the short-term trend has turned sideways to higher. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.67 1/2. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3.69 3/4. First support is September's low crossing at 3.42 1/2. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.40 1/4.
December wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last week's decline, September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.41 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.41 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.49 1/2. First support is September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.90.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 1/4-cent at 5.11 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat closed fractionally higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.49 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.35 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.49 1/2. First support is September's low crossing at 4.98 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.93 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.97 is the next upside target. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.97. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.02. First support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.42 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.62 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off the late-July high, psychological support crossing at 8.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.62 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.07. First support is September's low crossing at 8.12 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 8.00.
December soybean meal was slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 320.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off the late-July high, the June 2017 low crossing at 301.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 320.30. Second resistance is the August-15th reaction high crossing at 339.40. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 303.80. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 301.20.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the June-29 high crossing at 29.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.35 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 29.45. Second resistance is the June-29 high crossing at 29.98. First support is September's low crossing at 27.15. Second support is monthly support crossing at 26.99.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed up $2.58 at $64.75.
October hogs closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August low, the 75% retracement level of the February-August-decline crossing at 65.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 61.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 64.85. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-August-decline crossing at 65.55. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 61.46. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.14.
October cattle closed up $0.23 at 113.68.
October cattle closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 115.24 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 114.35. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 115.24. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.86. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.55.
October Feeder cattle closed up $0.48 at $158.65.
October Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, weekly resistance crossing at 160.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 155.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 159.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 160.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 155.91. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152.82.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
December cocoa closed sharply lower on Monday as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 18.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.21 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October sugar closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off September's high. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.77 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off September's high, the June-2008 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 9.44 is the next downside target.
December cotton closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off June's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December has resumed decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 74.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.16 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.