It's September 29th. Do something special for somebody to remember today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!
The latest rain forecasts for the next week are below. Rains increase again next week over some of the wet places.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Excessive Rain threat
Increasing early next week.
Current Day 1 Forecast
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Day 3 forecast below
Severe Storm Risk.
Pretty quiet.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Current Day 1 Outlook | |
Current Day 2 Outlook | |
Current Day 3 Outlook | |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
High Temperatures today and Sunday.
The tale of 2 temperature regimes!
Very chilly North, especially N.Plains/Upper Midwest ......Very warm south!
Warmth headed north, starting Sunday.
Highs days 3-7.
Very chilly to cold air in the North. Warmth battles back over the southern 2/3rds initially but might lose some ground in the Plains/Midwest late.
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
Above average Southern 2/3rds. Well below normal N.Plains.....record cold highs.
A slight shift in the location of the boundary between these extreme air masses will greatly change the temp forecast for areas close to the boundary.
Low Temperature Departures:
Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:
Front between very warm and cold air across the Midwest for several days goes back and forth..........finally gets kicked south later in this period by a strong system and trailing cold front.
Dew points.
70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!
Higher dew points are along the Gulf Coast to the far southeast.
Much, MUCH drier air than last week in the northern 1/2.
Current Surface features:
Cool Canadian High pressure Great Lakes
https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather
Satellite picture.
Rains the past 24 hours
Not much.
You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Soil moisture anomaly:
Too wet in a large area from one of our wettest Septembers in history!
The 2nd map gets updated once a week.
Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
Note how wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country!
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average
End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Saturday. Huge change from previous runs in the Southeast. The long lived heat ridge has shifted 1,000+ miles east from the previous days location. That's huge on an ensemble. As a result, the Plains trough also shifts much farther east. More zonal west to east flow and cold is cut off, so temperature extremes greatly lessened(warming up the cold and cooling off the heat).
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Oct 14, 2018 00 UTC
Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in white.
Today: Southern edge of cold air in Canada in the northern US! Still warm far Southeast. 
In 5+ days:
Heat ridge builds back in from the southeast for a few days. Cold recedes temporarily to the northwest.
In 10+ days:
Still "looks like" the same battle between warm Southeast and cold farther northwest.......but note less magnitude to the anomalies. A new pattern may be emerging just after this, that features more zonal flow.
Day 15: Extreme anomalies gone. Pacific flow has ushered the cold eastward. Warm for much of the country but not the extreme warmth in the Southeast, as the long lived heat ridge in the Southeast has weakened. 
The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.
Extreme Upper level ridging Alaska to West Coast that had been a constant theme for the past 10 days has weakened substantially and shifted west. More zonal, west to east flow along the Canadian side of the border keeping the cold to the north in Canada and allowing mild Pacific air masses to engulf much of the US to the south. With the long lived heat ridge in the Southeast possibly gone, the pattern may allow for drying in the Plains/Midwest.
Precip is drier again today.
Heating degree days(from cold weather) are replacing cooling degree days(from hot weather) as being the most important as we get into October.
Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:
Precip below:
