KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, September 25, 2018
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -0.8%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.4%)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter State Quarterly Personal Income
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.9%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.4%)
9:00 AM ET. July S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.3%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.2%)
9:00 AM ET. July U.S. Monthly House Price Index
10:00 AM ET. September Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (previous 133.4)
Expectation Idx (previous 107.6)
Present Situation Idx (previous 172.2)
10:00 AM ET. September Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 24)
Shipments Idx (previous 23)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.2M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.5M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.5M)
N/A U.N. General Debate opens
N/A EU and U.S. trade representatives meet in New York
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
Wednesday, September 26, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 342.7)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +1.6%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 234.2)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +0.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 917.1)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +3.7%)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter U.S. International Investment Position
10:00 AM ET. August New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 627K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous -1.7%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.9)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 394.137M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.057M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 234.15M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.719M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 140.122M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.839M)
Refinery Usage (previous 95.4%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.134M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.564M)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve economic projections
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2018 (previous 2.4%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2019 (previous 3.1%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2020 (previous 3.4%)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision, followed by Jerome Powell press briefing
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 2.00)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 1.75)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 8)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 2.50)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0.00)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
Thursday, September 27, 2018
8:30 AM ET. August Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous -1.7%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -1.0%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 201K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -3K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1645000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -55K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1393.4K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 997.6K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 468.4K)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Revised Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter 3rd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +4.2%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.0%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous +3.7%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.9%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.3%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +5.3%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Ex Food/Energy, Q/Q% (previous +2.0%
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +3.8%)
8:30 AM ET. August Advance Economic Indicators Report
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. August Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 106.2)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -0.7%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -2.3%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2722B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +86B)
11:00 AM ET. Sept. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 10)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 44)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 14)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 29)
3:00 PM ET. September Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -3.8%)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, September 28, 2018
8:30 AM ET. August Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.3%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.0%)
9:45 AM ET. September ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (previous 63.6)
10:00 AM ET. September University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 96.2)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 87.1)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.6%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 110.3)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 7420.50 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is August's high crossing at 7723.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the reaction low crossing at 7420.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7343.25.
The December S&P 500 was higher overnight.If December extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 2879.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 2945.00. Second resistance is is unknown. First support is the reaction lowcrossing at 2879.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2867.72.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower price are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 138-28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 142-04 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 140-30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 142-04. First support is the overnight low crossing at 139-17. Second support is May's low crossing at 138-28.
December T-notes was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 118.000 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.125 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 118.281. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.125. First support is the overnight low crossing at 118.110. Second support is May's low crossing at 118.000.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS:
NovemberNymex crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 72.74. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.42. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.70.
November heating oil was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November resumes the rally off July's low, the December-2014 high crossing at 237.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 218.32 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 231.28. Second resistance is the December-2014 high crossing at 237.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 218.32. Second support is August's low crossing at 208.43.
November unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 211.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 193.92 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 205.77. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 207.56. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 198.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 193.92.
November Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off September's low, June's high crossing at 3.064 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.870 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.053. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 3.064. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.870. Second support is September's low crossing at 2.747.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 93.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 94.54 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 95.28. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 93.39. Second support is July's low crossing at 93.04.
The December Euro was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 117.19 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 119.36 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 119.36. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 120.14. First support is September's low crossing at 116.12. Second support is August's low crossing at 114.09.
The December British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3053 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 1.3435 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.3586. First support is September's low crossing at 1.2845. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.2735.
The December Swiss Franc was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0418 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0605 is the next upside target. First resistance is Friday's high crossing at 1.0552. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0605. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0419. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0283.
The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of 2017-2018-decline crossing at 77.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 77.74. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of 2017-2018-decline crossing at 77.84. First support is the reaction low crossing at 76.67. Second support is September's low crossing at 75.75.
The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 0.0886 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0905 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0912. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 0.0918. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0890. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 0.0886.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the decline off April's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10 is the next downside target. Closes above trading range resistance crossing at 1215.70 are needed to renew the rally off August's low. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1215.70. Second resistance is the July-26th reaction high crossing at 1239.80. First support is August's low crossing at 1162.70. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10.
December silver was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.322 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If December renews the decline off June's high, the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.322. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.903. First support is September's low crossing at 13.965. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.
December copper was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, the July 25th reaction high crossing at 288.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 269.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 25th reaction high crossing at 288.85. Second resistance is the July 10th reaction high crossing at 290.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 269.56. Second support is September's low crossing at 258.00.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.67 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 3.40 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.67 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.82 1/2. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.42 1/2. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.40 1/4.
December wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.42 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.42 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.49 1/2. First support is September's low crossing at 4.95 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.90.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 3 3/4-cents at 5.29.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.25 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 4.93 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.25 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.57 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.97. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.93 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.95 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 5.42 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.02. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.31 3/4. First support is September's low crossing at 5.60 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.42 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.63 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off the late-July high, psychological support crossing at 8.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.63 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.07. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 8.12 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 8.00.
December soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off the late-July high, the June 2017 low crossing at 301.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 321.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 321.80. Second resistance is the August-15th reaction high crossing at 339.40. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 303.80. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 301.20.
December soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.49 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December renews this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 26.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.49. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 29.00. First support is September's low crossing at 27.15. Second support is monthly support crossing at 26.99.
Thanks tallpine!