Thursday, September 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S.
stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings
when the New York day session begins. It’s been a quieter
week on the fundamental news front, with the ongoing U.S.-
China trade war the main focus. However, traders and
investors are fatigued with that news and the markets are
reacting less and less to the latest salvos.

In overnight news, Turkey’s finance minister said his
country will experience lower economic growth and higher
inflation in the coming two years, with annual inflation
reaching a whopping 20%. The Turkish lira is down 40%
against the U.S. dollar this year.

Japan’s prime minister Abe on Thursday was re-elected as
his party’s leader by a landslide.

The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index
lower as the bulls are fading this week. Meantime, Nymex
crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $71.50 a
barrel. However, around present price levels rallies have
been capped several times this year. 

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the
weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business
survey, leading economic indicators, and existing home
sales.

--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES 

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher
in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-
term technical advantage as prices trade not far below the
recent contract and record highs. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the
contract high of 2,921.75 and then at 2,935.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at 2,900.00 and then at this
week’s low of 2,883.50. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

December Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are firmer in
early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 7,575.00 and then
at 7,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
7,500.00 and then at this week’s low of 7,422.25. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S.
trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical
advantage as a downtrend is in place on the daily chart.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
the overnight high of 140 16/32 and then at Wednesday’s high
of 140 23/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 139
23/32 and then at 139 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
 
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S.
trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar
chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 118.23.5 and then Wednesday’s high of
118.27.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of
118.16.0 and then at 118.12.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is lower and hit a seven-week
low in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage but are fading and a five-
week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The
shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are
bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 94.165 and then at this
week’s high of 94.565. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 93.780 and then at 93.500. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a contract
high in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages
are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above
technical resistance at $72.00 and then at $72.50. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $71.00 and then
at $70.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Grain market
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and new
lows are still likely in corn and soybeans. Traders are
awaiting this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
U.S. corn and soybean harvest pressure is under way this
week, so look for sideways-at-best trading in the grains in
the coming weeks, but more likely sideways-to-lower.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you. 

Jim Wyckoff