KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, February 5, 2018
9:45 AM ET. January US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 53.7)
10:00 AM ET. January Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 107.10)
ETI, Y/Y% (previous +5.2%)
10:00 AM ET. January ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business
Non-Mfg Composite Idx (previous 55.9)
Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 57.3)
Prices Idx (previous 60.8)
Employment Idx (previous 56.3)
New Orders Idx (previous 54.3)
11:00 AM ET. January Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 53.9)
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The March NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6841.26 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 6593.81 is the next downside target. If March resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 7047.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is today's low crossing at 6797.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6593.81.
The March S&P 500 posted its largest signal-day loss since September 9th 2016 as it closed sharply lower on Friday and below key support marked by the 20-day moving average. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2804.12 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2716.90 is the next downside target. If March renews this winter's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2878.40. Second resistance is unknown. First support is reaction low crossing at 2736.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2716.90.
The Dow closed sharply lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,946.22 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. U.S. stock market fell sharply today as investors digested a stronger-than-expected jobs report that ignited inflation fears and contributed to a continued rise in bond yields. The U.S. economy added 200,000 jobs in January with the best news coming from the wage growth. Average hourly wages rose 0.3%, pushing the yearly increase to 2.9%, the fastest pace in more than eight years. The Dow now appears to be pricing in tighter monetary policy if inflation driven by wage growth accelerates. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 25,256.99 is the next downside target. If the Dow renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 26,529.44. Second resistance is unknown. First support is today's low crossing at 25,619.05. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 25,256.99.
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March T-bonds closed down 1-14/32's at 145-04.
March T-bonds posted its lowest close in three-years on Friday as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high,weekly support crossing at 143-25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 149-05 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 148-00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 149-05. First support is today's low crossing at 144-24. Second support is weekly support crossing at 143-25.
March T-notes closed down 120/32's at 120-270.
March T-notes closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off last September's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 119.170 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.167 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 122.272. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.119. First support is today's low crossing at 120.210. Second support is weekly support crossing at 119.170.
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March crude oil closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this winter's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 66.66. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.22. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 62.78.
March heating oil closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 202.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 221.96 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 213.62. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 221.96. First support is the reaction low crossing at 202.98. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 199.81.
March unleaded gas closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 180.85 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 197.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 193.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 197.79. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 180.85. Second support is December's low crossing at 168.44.
March Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.894 as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at 2.693 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.040 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.040. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.281. First support is January's crossing at 2.693. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.532.
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The March Dollar closed higher on Friday while extending the trading range of the past six-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 87.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.14 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.17. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.14. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 88.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 87.45.
The March Euro closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, monthly resistance crossing at 126.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 125.76. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 126.74. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 124.34. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.90.
The March British Pound closed lower on Friday ending a three-day rally off Tuesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3934 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4608 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1.4370. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4608. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.4004. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3934.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2016-decline crossing at 1.0994 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0515 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1.0829. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2015-2016-decline crossing at 1.0994. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0678. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0515.
The March Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 82.04 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 82.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.64. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.41.
The March Japanese Yen closed sharply lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9074 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 0.9260. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9074. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.8987.
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April gold closed sharply lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1339.00 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1305.80 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off December's low, the August-2016 high crossing at 1396.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1370.50. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1396.20. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1313.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1305.80.
March silver closed lower on Friday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.745 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 16.140 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 18.015 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 18.015. First support is today's low crossing at 16.530. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 16.140.
March copper closed lower on Friday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 325.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 325.80. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. First support is the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61. Second support is the 75% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 303.58.
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March Corn closed down 3/4-cents at 3.61.
March corn closed fractionally lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.65 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.52 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.65 1/2. Second resistance is last October's high crossing at 3.69 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.52 1/2. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.45 1/2.
March wheat closed down 4-cents at 4.47.
March wheat closed lower due to profit taking on Friday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top has been posted. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.33 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March extends the aforementioned rally, last September's high crossing at 4.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4.58 3/4. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 4.82. First support is January's low crossing at 4.13 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 3 3/4-cent at 4.63 1/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's high, September's high crossing at 4.77 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.40 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4.71 1/4. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 4.77 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.48 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.40 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down 8-cents at 6.03 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday as it renewed the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.18 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high resistance crossing at 6.51. First support is today's low crossing at 6.02 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
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March soybeans closed down 6 1/2-cents at 9.78 1/2.
March soybeans closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.76 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.16 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.76 3/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 9.61 1/4.
March soybean meal closed down $2.70 at 331.30.
March soybean meal closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 328.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 351.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 348.50. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 351.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 328.80. Second support is January's low crossing at 310.30.
March soybean oil closed down 38 pts. At 32.52.
March soybean oil closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, last June's low crossing at 31.85 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.32 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.32. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 34.10. First support is January's low crossing at 32.10. Second support is last June's low crossing at 31.85.
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April hogs closed up $0.73 at $73.55.
April hogs closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.74 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 70.97 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.52. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.25. First support is December's low 70.97. Second support is November's low crossing at 70.62.
April cattle closed up $0.20 at 126.13.
April cattle closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 127.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 126.75. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.57. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.
March Feeder cattle closed up $1.38 at $150.93.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 154.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 145.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 156.13. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 142.42. Second support is January's low crossing at 140.13.
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March coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this year's decline, December's low crossing at 11.83 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.43 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-December-decline crossing at 21.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.73 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, the September-2015 low crossing at 12.72 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 75.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.34 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.