For weather that effects the natural gas market(Cooling Degree Days in the Summer help gauge residential natural gas use because natural gas is used to generate electricity for air conditioning...........and now, to generate residential heating:
From Natural Gas Intelligence:
More Long-Range Cold Seen Overnight as October Natural Gas Steady
8:55 AM
Coming off Tuesday’s sharp rally, October natural gas futures were trading close to even shortly after 8 a.m. ET Wednesday at around $2.930/MMBtu, with forecasters pointing to additional long-range cold in the overnight guidance.
Storage is Very Low for this time of year!!
Storage is just below the bottom of the previous 5 year range and also almost 700 bcf below last year at this time!
This is why the temperature forecast matters....in the Summer/cooling season and Winter/heating season.
Last Thursday's EIA Number:
+69 billion cubic feet-neutral
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (09/07/17) | 5-year average (2013-17) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 09/07/18 | 08/31/18 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 679 | 659 | 20 | 20 | 805 | -15.7 | 780 | -12.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 734 | 702 | 32 | 32 | 901 | -18.5 | 879 | -16.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 166 | 162 | 4 | 4 | 208 | -20.2 | 195 | -14.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 250 | 246 | 4 | 4 | 296 | -15.5 | 326 | -23.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 806 | 799 | 7 | 7 | 1,088 | -25.9 | 1,052 | -23.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 182 | 183 | -1 | -1 | 282 | -35.5 | 268 | -32.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 624 | 615 | 9 | 9 | 806 | -22.6 | 784 | -20.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,636 | 2,567 | 69 | 69 | 3,298 | -20.1 | 3,232 | -18.4 | |||||||||||||||||
Here are the temperatures from the 7 day period, ending last Friday that was used for this EIA storage report. Near record heat in some high population centers of the East(and Eastern Midwest). So the injection was a bit less than the 5 year average.
These were the temperatures last week, for the 7 day period that will be used for this Thursday EIA report:
Natural gas hit some tough resistance back in August. Even the hottest of the hot forecasts couldn't push us to $3 with very low storage.........but we held support last week.
The heating season is coming up and we have some chill in the forecast that caused ng to spike higher on Tuesday.
| Natural gas 3 months |
Naturalgas 1 year below
Naturalgas 5 years below
| Naturalgas10years below
|
By Jim_M - Sept. 17, 2018, 3:22 p.m.
Bearish? Where storage is right now, anything under 100 bcf is bullish. Throw a cold month in this winter and things could get very serious.