Weather Wednesday
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Started by metmike - Sept. 19, 2018, 8:46 a.m.

Hello September 19th. Do something special for somebody to remember today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it.


 Unwelcome rains in the Midwest over the next week.


 The latest rain forecasts are below.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126






http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Comments
By metmike - Sept. 19, 2018, 8:51 a.m.
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Excessive Rain threat

Upper Midwest today but shifting southeast quickly




Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  



Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - Sept. 19, 2018, 8:53 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk.

 Upper Midwest today, increasing Thursday and Friday and moving east.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
         
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
     
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - Sept. 19, 2018, 8:55 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Thursday:


 Widespread warmth..........to hot in a few spots. Chilly Northern tier.  


                    

By metmike - Sept. 19, 2018, 8:59 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7.

 Very warm South but chilly air N.Plains.   CDD's still in the south. But HDD's in the north.




http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Sept. 19, 2018, 9:02 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?


 Well above average Southeast, below normal N.Plains.

Huge contrast between cold blue anomalies N.Plains and very warm red anomalies southeast.



High temperature departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - Sept. 19, 2018, 9:03 a.m.
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Dew points.


 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!  

A bit humid.  Much cooler and drier air N.Plains.


Current Dew Points

By metmike - Sept. 19, 2018, 9:04 a.m.
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Heat Index:


Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature.  Will feel hotter from humidity in many places.

Current US Heat Index Map

By metmike - Sept. 19, 2018, 9:06 a.m.
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Current Surface features:


Remnants of Tropical Depression Florence in the W.Atlantic.  New  major weather system in the Plains to Upper Midwest.


 

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Current US Surface Weather Map

By metmike - Sept. 19, 2018, 9:07 a.m.
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Latest radar image.


Action in the Midwest.



http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop



 

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

By metmike - Sept. 19, 2018, 9:08 a.m.
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Satellite picture.


Midwest clouds.


US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - Sept. 19, 2018, 9:10 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours.  

Heavy in the Midwest(Iowa)......last of Florence along the East Coast.


By metmike - Sept. 19, 2018, 9:11 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

By metmike - Sept. 19, 2018, 9:12 a.m.
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Soil moisture anomaly:


Too wet in a huge area from massive September rains!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

By metmike - Sept. 19, 2018, 9:15 a.m.
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Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.


It dried out last week but more rain in the Midwest now.


https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Sept. 19, 2018, 9:17 a.m.
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Drought Monitor.

This product is updated every Thursday. This measure takes into account the long term precip/sub soil moisture and goes back over MANY months. Top map is this week. Map below it was last week.

Drought in the West.


            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    


Drought Monitor for conusDrought Monitor for conus

By metmike - Sept. 19, 2018, 9:20 a.m.
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Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.


Today/tomorrow:   New cool surge Northwest to N.Plains pushing across the Northern Tier this week. Very warm S. Midwest to Southeast half.
NCEP Ensemble t = 024 hour forecast product



In 5+ days:

Very warm East. Cold in Canada to Northwest US ready to plunge south.
NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product



In 10+ days:

 Chilly blast! Hello heating degree days!!!
NCEP Ensemble t = 264 hour forecast product


Day 15  Warm anomalies Northwestern Canada.....cool downstream.

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - Sept. 19, 2018, 9:26 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average


End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Wednesday.  Canadian ridge west, trough Hudson Bay to Midwest/East pattern by late week 2 and beyond.  Very pronounced on some solutions. This is chilly with HDD's more like late October in the North. However, today we have some solutions that show the heat ridge in the Southeast getting stronger again in early October.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Oct 04, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Sept. 19, 2018, 9:30 a.m.
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The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4.


Extreme Upper level ridging that was in Northwest Canada, builds back  even farther into Alaska(retrogrades), Very chilly air recedes, as the heat ridge in the Southeast US rebuilds.


Heating degree days(from cold weather) are replacing cooling degree days(from hot weather) as being the most important as we get into October.


Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif