KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, September 19, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 337.4)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 233.5)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +0.9%)
Refinance Idx (previous 884.3)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -5.9%)
8:30 AM ET. August New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.23M; previous 1.168M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected +5.3%; previous +0.9%)
Building Permits (expected 1.30M; previous 1.311M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected -0.8%; previous +1.5%)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter International Transactions
Current Account (USD) (expected -103.2B; previous -124.105B)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 396.194M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -5.296M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 235.869M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.25M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 139.283M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +6.163M)
Refinery Usage (previous 97.6%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.57M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.093M)
Thursday, September 20, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 2754.7K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2445.7K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 387.6K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 210K; previous 204K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -1K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1696000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -15K)
8:30 AM ET. September Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 15.0; previous 11.9)
Prices Paid (previous 55.0)
Employment (previous 14.3)
New Orders (previous 9.9)
Prices Received (previous 33.2)
Delivery Times (previous 6.4)
Inventories (previous 15.4)
Shipments (previous 16.6)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. August Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.6%)
Leading Index (previous 110.7)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
10:00 AM ET. August Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (expected 5.38M; previous 5.34M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (expected +0.7%; previous -0.7%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 4.3)
Median Price (USD) (previous 269600)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +4.5%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2636B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +69B)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, September 21, 2018
9:45 AM ET. September US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 55.0; previous 55.2)
9:45 AM ET. September US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 55.0; previous 54.5)
Monday, September 24, 2018
8:30 AM ET. August CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.13)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.05)
10:30 AM ET. September Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 30.9)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 29.3)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The December NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Tuesday as investors shrugging off rising trade tensions with China and focused on an economy that remains strong by many measures. The gains were led by consumer-discretionary and technology shares, two sectors that had slumped in the previous session. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7465.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the reaction low crossing at 7316.50. If December extends the rally off today's low, August's high crossing at 7723.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 7723.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7465.30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7343.25.
The December S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes this summer's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average low crossing at 2893.93 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 2919.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2893.93. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2854.66.
The Dow closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it resumed the rally off April's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off April's low, January's high crossing at 26,616.71 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 25,754.32 would confirm that an important top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 26,317.34. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 26,616.71. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 25,754.32. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,565.53.
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December T-bonds closed down 1-02/32's at 140-18.
December T-bonds closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 138-28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-09 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 142-09. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-09. First support is today's low crossing at 140-19. Second support is May's low crossing at 138-28.
December T-notes closed down 125-points at 118-235.
December T-notes closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 118.000 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.274 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 119.152. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.274. First support is today's low crossing at 118.255. Second support is May's low crossing at 118.000.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 71.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 66.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is September's high crossing at 71.40. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 71.63. First support is the reaction low crossing at 66.86. Second support is August's low crossing at 63.89.
October heating oil closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 216.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off August's low, the December-2014 high crossing at 237.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 230.93. Second resistance is the December-2014 high crossing at 237.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 216.79. Second support is August's low crossing at 208.05.
October unleaded gas closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 211.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 192.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 206.24. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 211.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at 192.60. Second support is August's low crossing at 186.62.
October Henry natural gas closed sharply higher on Tuesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.855 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends today's rally, August's high crossing at 2.979 is the next upside target. If October renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 2.612 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.937. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 2.979. First support is September's low crossing at 2.752. Second support is July's low crossing at 2.688.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The December Dollar closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the late-July low crossing at 93.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 95.28 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the late-July low crossing at 93.48. Second support is July's low crossing at 93.04.
The December Euro closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 118.80 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 116.12 is needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 118.80. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 119.36. First support is August's low crossing at 114.09. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 113.54.
The December British Pound closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 1.3281. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3028 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3281. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. First support is September's low crossing at 1.2845. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.2735.
The December Swiss Franc closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0370 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0605 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0480. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0605. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0370. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0253.
The December Canadian Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low crossing at 75.75, August's high crossing at 77.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 77.74. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 78.05. First support is September's low crossing at 75.75. Second support is July's low crossing at 75.47.
The December Japanese Yen closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 0.0894 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0906 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0912. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 0.0918. First support is today's low crossing at 0.0895. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.0894.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
October gold closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 1215.70 is the next upside target. If October resumes the decline off April's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1215.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1226.70. First support is August's low crossing at 1162.70. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10.
December silver closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.450 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off June's high, the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.450. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.075. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 13.965. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.
December copper closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 276.65 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 251.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 276.65. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 283.80. First support is August's low crossing at 257.45. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 251.03.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down 5 1/4-cents at 3.42 3/4.
December corn closed closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 3.40 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.67 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.57 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.67 3/4. First support is monthly support crossing at 3.40 1/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.29 3/4.
December wheat closed up 4 3/4-cents at 5.11.
December wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.25 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 4.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.25 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.49 1/2. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 4.95 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.90.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 3 1/4-cents at 5.16.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.31 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 4.93 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.31 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.57 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.97. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.93 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up 5-cents at 5.80 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.82 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 5.42 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.82 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.02. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 5.60 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.42 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed down 9 1/4-cents at 8.14 1/4.
November soybeans closed lower on Tuesday as it renewed the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off July's high, monthly support crossing at 8.10 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.64 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.64 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.07. First support is monthly support crossing at 8.10 1/2. Second support is monthly support crossing at 7.76 1/4.
December soybean meal closed down $1.70 at 304.00.
December soybean meal closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 301.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 323.40 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 323.40. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 339.40. First support is the June-2017 low crossing at 301.20. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 289.50.
December soybean oil closed down 34 pts. at 27.36.
December soybean oil closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this summer's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. If December extends the decline off the late-July high, monthly support crossing at 26.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.54 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 29.00. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 29.39. First support is today's low crossing at 27.34. Second support is monthly support crossing at 26.99.
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October hogs closed up $2.73 at $59.18.
October hogs gapped up and closed sharply higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off the late-August low, August's high crossing at 59.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 52.95 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 59.45. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 59.50. First support is the late-August low crossing at 48.92. Second support is August's low crossing at 47.82.
October cattle closed down $0.20 at 113.22.
October cattle closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 115.24 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 109.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 113.98. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 115.24. First support is August's low crossing at 106.20. Second support is July's low crossing at 105.48.
October Feeder cattle closed down $1.15 at $158.03.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, weekly resistance crossing at 160.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 151.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 159.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 160.48. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 151.91. Second support is September's low crossing at 148.10.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this summer's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 9.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.16 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
December cocoa closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last-Friday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 21.35 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 26.07 is the next upside target.
October sugar closed lower for the third day in a row on Tuesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the aforementioned decline, August's low crossing at 9.91 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.07 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
December cotton closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it marked a downside breakout of the trading range of the past five-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 77.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 84.79 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
Thank you tallpine!