Weather Tuesday
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Started by metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 9:13 a.m.

Welcome to September 18th.  Make it a great day! Do something special for somebody to remember today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it.

Florence going out to sea.

Florence page here:  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/13159/


 Unwelcome rains in the Midwest this week.


 The latest rain forecasts are below. Not as extreme in NC/SC because much of the rain has already fallen.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126






http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Comments
By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 9:14 a.m.
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New area in the Midwest this week.



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  



Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 9:15 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk. Increasing later this week.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
         
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
     
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 9:17 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Wednesday.   Widespread warmth..........even hot in a few spots. Chilly N.Plains to Upper Midwest to Upper Great Lakes.  


                    

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 9:18 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7. Widespread heat S.Midwest to Southeast but very chilly air invades the north and sinks a bit south.   CDD's still in the south. But increasing HDD's in the north.




http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 9:19 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?  We are now 8 weeks past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.

 Well above average S.Midwest to Southeast.............but average in mid September is as hot anymore.

Huge contrast between cold blue anomalies N.Plains and very warm red anomalies southeast.



High temperature departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 9:20 a.m.
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Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!  

A bit humid.  Much cooler and drier air N.Plains.


Current Dew Points

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 9:20 a.m.
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Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature.  Will feel hotter from humidity in many places.

Current US Heat Index Map

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 9:21 a.m.
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Remnants of Tropical Depression Florence accelerating out to sea.  New  major weather system in the Plains to Upper Midwest to Great Lakes.


 

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Current US Surface Weather Map

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 9:23 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image.  Tropical Depression Florence moving out of the Northeast. New area  of  sometimes heavy rains Midwest.



http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop



 

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 9:27 a.m.
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Satellite picture.      

Farewell Florence, Hello new system.


US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 9:28 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours. Picking up Midwest................last of Florence.


By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 9:28 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 9:29 a.m.
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Too wet in a huge area from massive September rains!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 9:30 a.m.
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Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Bountiful rains for most of the Cornbelt..............and points eastward and westward. This increased yields in August!!!

More rain in the Midwest now.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 9:31 a.m.
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Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday. Drought has been shrinking but still persists in Texas.........this measure takes into account the long term precip/sub soil moisture and goes back over MANY months.

Top map is this week. Map below it was last week.


            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    


Drought Monitor for conusDrought Monitor for conus

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 9:34 a.m.
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Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.


Today/tomorrow:   New cool surge Northwest to N.Plains pushing across the Northern Tier this week. Very warm S. Midwest to Southeast half.
NCEP Ensemble t = 024 hour forecast product



In 5+ days:

Very warm/hot East. Cold in Canada hitting Northwest to northern tier.
NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product



In 10+ days:

 Chilly blast! Hello heating degree days!!!
NCEP Ensemble t = 264 hour forecast product


Day 15  Warm anomalies Northwestern Canada.....cool downstream.

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 9:37 a.m.
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The top map is the ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Tuesday.  Ridge Canadian west, trough Hudson Bay to Midwest/East pattern by late week 2 and beyond. Very pronounced on some solutions. This is chilly with HDD's more like late October in the North.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Oct 03, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 9:38 a.m.
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The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4.

Extreme Upper level ridging into Northwest Canada, again today it builds back to Alaska.  Cool  downstream in the Midwest. Heating Degree Days above average!

Septembers gradually get cooler, almost every year. Heating degree days(from cold weather) will soon be replacing cooling degree days(from hot weather) as being the most important as we get into October.


Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 3:33 p.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks. Very chilly air from Canada pouring in!!


Pretty wet too.  It's already been one of the wettest first half of Septembers ever. 


  



Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

  

the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Sept. 18, 2018, 3:35 p.m.
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Extreme rain potential in the 3-7 day period below. Slowing down harvest in some places. 



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

By wxgrant - Sept. 18, 2018, 5:57 p.m.
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Love this pattern change. Tired of the heat. All the ensembles are showing a significant cool down moving into the lower 48. The cooling trend looks to move into the Northeast  by next week. Below is the EURO ensemble. 

By metmike - Sept. 19, 2018, 12:05 a.m.
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Thanks for sharing that with us Grant!


The 18z ensembles were the coldest they've been yet:

gefs-mean-sprd_namer_360_500_vort_ht.gif