KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, September 18, 2018
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -2.0%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +4.4%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +6.3%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +6.3%)
10:00 AM ET. September NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (expected 66; previous 67)
4:00 PM ET. July Treasury International Capital Data
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -8.6M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.1M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +5.8M)
Wednesday, September 19, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 337.4)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 233.5)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +0.9%)
Refinance Idx (previous 884.3)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -5.9%)
8:30 AM ET. August New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.23M; previous 1.168M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected +5.3%; previous +0.9%)
Building Permits (expected 1.30M; previous 1.311M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected -0.8%; previous +1.5%)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter International Transactions
Current Account (USD) (expected -103.2B; previous -124.105B)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 396.194M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -5.296M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 235.869M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.25M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 139.283M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +6.163M)
Refinery Usage (previous 97.6%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.57M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.093M)
Thursday, September 20, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 2754.7K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2445.7K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 387.6K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 210K; previous 204K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -1K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1696000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -15K)
8:30 AM ET. September Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 15.0; previous 11.9)
Prices Paid (previous 55.0)
Employment (previous 14.3)
New Orders (previous 9.9)
Prices Received (previous 33.2)
Delivery Times (previous 6.4)
Inventories (previous 15.4)
Shipments (previous 16.6)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. August Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.6%)
Leading Index (previous 110.7)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
10:00 AM ET. August Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (expected 5.38M; previous 5.34M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (expected +0.7%; previous -0.7%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 4.3)
Median Price (USD) (previous 269600)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +4.5%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2636B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +69B)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, September 21, 2018
9:45 AM ET. September US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 55.0; previous 55.2)
9:45 AM ET. September US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 55.0; previous 54.5)
Monday, September 24, 2018
8:30 AM ET. August CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.13)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.05)
10:30 AM ET. September Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 30.9)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 29.3)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7469.94 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. If September renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is August's high crossing at 7723.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7463.94. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7343.25.
The December S&P 500 was higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 2879.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is August's high crossing at 2919.50. Second resistance is is unknown. First support is the reaction lowcrossing at 2879.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2854.35.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower price are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 141-04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-10 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 142-12. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-10. First support is Monday's low crossing at 141-07. Second support is August's low crossing at 141-04.
December T-notes was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 118.275. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.279 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 119.162. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.279. First support is Monday's low crossing at 118.315. Second support is August's low crossing at 118.275.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: OctoberNymex crude oil was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 66.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 71.63 is the next upside target.First resistance is September's high crossing at 71.40. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 71.63. First support is the reaction low crossing at 66.86. Second support is August's low crossing at 63.89.
October heating oil was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off July's low, the December-2014 high crossing at 237.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 216.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 230.93. Second resistance is the December-2014 high crossing at 237.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 216.80. Second support is August's low crossing at 208.05.
October unleaded gas was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 211.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 206.24. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 211.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.24. Second support is August's low crossing at 186.62.
October Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.850 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 2.688 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.850. Second resistance is the August 31st high crossing at 2.931. First support is August's low crossing at 2.751. Second support is July's low crossing at 2.688.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the late-July low crossing at 93.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 95.28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 95.28. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. First support is the the late-August low crossing at 93.93. Second support is the late-July low crossing at 93.48.
The December Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If December renews the rally off August's low, the late-July high crossing at 118.80 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 116.12 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the late-August high crossing at 118.31. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 119.36. First support is August's low crossing at 114.09. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 113.54.
The December British Pound was slightly lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the July-26th reaction high crossing at 1.3281 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3029 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July-26th reaction high crossing at 1.3281. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. First support is September's low crossing at 1.2845. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.2735.
The December Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0605 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0371 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0480. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0605. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0371. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0254.
The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 77.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 77.74. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 78.05. First support is September's low crossing at 75.75. Second support is July's low crossing at 75.47.
The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 0.0894 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0906 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0912. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 0.0918. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0896. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.0894.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above trading range resistance crossing at 1215.70 are needed to renew the rally off August's low. If October resumes the decline off April's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1215.70. Second resistance is the July-26th reaction high crossing at 1239.80. First support is August's low crossing at 1162.70. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10.
December silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.453 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.453. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.076. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 13.965. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.
December copper was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews last-week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.89 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off the late-July high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 251.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.89. Second resistance is the August 9th reaction high crossing at 283.80. First support is August's low crossing at 257.45. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 251.03.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was fractionally lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 3.40 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.67 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.67 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.82 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.48 3/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.40 1/4.
December wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.25 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 4.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.25 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.49 1/2. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 4.95 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.90.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 3 1/2-cents at 5.12 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.34 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 4.93 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.34 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.57 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.97. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.93 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.82 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 5.42 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.02. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.31 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 5.60 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.42 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If November extends the decline off the late-July high, monthly support crossing at 8.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.64 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.64 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.07. First support is the overnight low crossing at 8.19 1/2. Second support is monthly support crossing at 8.17.
December soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off the late-July high, the June 2017 low crossing at 301.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 323.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 323.50. Second resistance is the August-15th reaction high crossing at 339.40. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 303.80. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 301.20.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends last-week's breakout to the downside of the July-August trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 26.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.54 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 29.00. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 29.39. First support is the overnight low crossing at 27.43. Second support is monthly support crossing at 26.99.
Thanks Tallpine!