For the weather that effects crops in the ground.........harvest, go here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/13201/
Turning too wet again!
USDA corn number, increasing yield higher than highest guess was the shocker last Wednesday:
Was thinking the lows were in for corn before the bearish August USDA report. Then, favorable weather for filling in August added more yield. The even more bearish Sept USDA report pushed us to new lows.
Dry weather last week was bearish but too much rain again this week could be supportive.
CZ dropped to 348.5, now back to 350.......just off the lows and 78c off the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month Sept.
Corn historical perspective:
Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago
3 month below September(front month)
1 year below
5 year below
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New low for SX Wednesday, of 821.25 BEFORE the expected very bearish USDA report. We tested that earlier today at 821.75 and have bounced a bit.
In August the USDA fed the market one of the most bearish crop reports ever. 2019 to have the highest stocks in history!
Outstanding August weather has increased the crop size even more.
Harvest pressure and negative seasonals are looming but wet weather this week offsets some of that bearishness. Tariff news is an extreme wild card.
These are still at 10 year lows and over $2 below the $10.60 below late May highs.
Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently at 10 year lows !!!!!
Charts below still Sept contract.
Soybeans 3 months below......bottom in.
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Soybeans 1 year chart below
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Soybeans 5 years below
Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, Currently, we are below the 10 year lows!
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As noted below in the seasonals(averaging prices over a 20 year period and graphing them with time), most of the price weakness in corn and beans takes place in June and July.
However, this August featured great weather and a record crop and has pushed us back near the lows.
Beans have a pretty strong, brief spike down in mid Sept to early Oct, headed into early harvest that can often features new lows. Corn sometimes too but it often does not take out the Summer lows. That does not always happen and each year is different. We have massive supply in this particular year(2018) to deal with. More wet weather coming up in what has been one of the wettest Septembers ever.
Recent comments on grains:
Crop condition. Not a factor unless weather gets too wet and stays wet.
Winter wheat planting going strong in the northern areas of HRW country(where the crop goes dormant earliest).
Some farmers are reporting excessive wet weather has affected grain quality. Soybeans showing 30-40% mold in a sample taken to an elevator. Is mouldy grain quality such that elevators won't accept a write off and thus a crop insurance claim. No matter it would be difficult to market mouldy beans. Toxins etc a concern???
Corn is showing signs of sprouts in the husk before harvest. Is this grain also not fit to market depending on the amount of sprouts. Wheat sprouts are an issue. What about other grains??
In IA one farmer claimed his corn did not mature. It simply died due to excessive heat
Is excessive rain and heat having enough stress on the crop to affect total production or just isolated places, same as we always see every yr.