Weather Monday
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Started by metmike - Sept. 17, 2018, 9:41 a.m.

Welcome to another day, September 17th.  Make it a great day! Do something special for somebody to remember today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it.

Florence accelerating northeast now.

 

New Florence update page: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/13159/

Drying has been great in the Cornbelt  but unwelcome rains in the Midwest this week.


 The latest rain forecasts are below. Not as extreme in NC/SC because much of the rain has already fallen.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126






http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Comments
By metmike - Sept. 17, 2018, 9:44 a.m.
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Excessive rain threat...............still moderate by Florence. New area in the Midwest this week.



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  



Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - Sept. 17, 2018, 9:45 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk. Make a strong storm or 2. Hit the map to get full screen.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
         
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
     
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - Sept. 17, 2018, 9:47 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Tuesday.   Widespread warmth..........even hot in a few spots. Chilly N.Plains to Upper Midwest.   Mild temps and wet under Florence's remnants


                    

By metmike - Sept. 17, 2018, 9:49 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7. Widespread heat S.Midwest to Southeast but very chilly air invades the north and sinks a bit south.  




http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Sept. 17, 2018, 9:50 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?  We are now 8 weeks past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.

 Well above average S.Midwest to Southeast.............but average in mid September is not that hot anymore.

Huge contrast between cold blue anomalies N.Plains and very warm red anomalies southeast.



High temperature departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - Sept. 17, 2018, 9:52 a.m.
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Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!  

A bit humid.  Much cooler and drier air N.Plains.


Current Dew Points

By metmike - Sept. 17, 2018, 9:53 a.m.
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Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature.  Will feel hotter from humidity in many places.

Current US Heat Index Map

By metmike - Sept. 17, 2018, 9:54 a.m.
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Remnants of Tropical Depression Florence accelerating northeast. New  major weather system in the N.Plains to Upper Midwest.  


 

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Current US Surface Weather Map

By metmike - Sept. 17, 2018, 9:59 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image.  Tropical Depression Florence moving northeast. New area of increasing rains Midwest.



http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

Central Great Lakes sector loop

By metmike - Sept. 17, 2018, 10 a.m.
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Satellite picture.      

We can still see you Florence!


US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - Sept. 17, 2018, 10 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours.  Not much................except for Florence.


By metmike - Sept. 17, 2018, 10:01 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

                                    


By metmike - Sept. 17, 2018, 10:02 a.m.
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Too wet in a huge area from massive September rains!

Drier last week, which is minimizing problems to the crops but wet again this week in the  Midwest. Flooding from Florence is happening. 2nd map hasn't been updated in awhile.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

By metmike - Sept. 17, 2018, 10:03 a.m.
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Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Bountiful rains for most of the Cornbelt..............and points eastward and westward. This increased yields in August!!!

But September brought too much rain!  Drying out now.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Sept. 17, 2018, 10:09 a.m.
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Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday. Drought has been shrinking but still persists in Texas.........this measure takes into account the long term precip/sub soil moisture and goes back over MANY months.

Top map is this week. Map below it was last week.


            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    


Drought Monitor for conusDrought Monitor for conus

By metmike - Sept. 17, 2018, 10:13 a.m.
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Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.


Today/tomorrow:   New cool surge Northwest to N.Plains pushing across the Northern Tier this week. Very Southeast half.
NCEP Ensemble t = 024 hour forecast product



In 5+ days:

Very warm/hot East. Cold in Canada hitting northern tier.
NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product



In 10+ days:

Positive Anomalies Southeast to Midwest. Chilly around the heat.
NCEP Ensemble t = 264 hour forecast product


Day 15  Warm anomalies Western Canada.....cool downstream.

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - Sept. 17, 2018, 10:16 a.m.
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The top map is the ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Monday.  Ridge west, trough Midwest/East pattern by late week 2 and beyond. Very pronounced on some solutions.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Oct 2, 2018 00UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast


Here are the 0z GFS ensembles from overnight.  Much disagreement.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

By metmike - Sept. 17, 2018, 10:18 a.m.
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The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4.

Extreme Upper level ridging into Northwest Canada, today it builds back to Alaska.  Cool  downstream in the Midwest.

Septembers gradually get cooler, almost every year. Heating degree days(from cold weather) will soon be replacing cooling degree days(from hot weather) as being the most important as we get into October.


Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - Sept. 17, 2018, 4:32 p.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks. Looking pretty wet over much of the country. Very warm southern 1/2, cool northern tier. A heat ridge rebuilding in the south could set the stage for additional excessive rain events returning to the Midwest. It's already been one of the wettest first half of Septembers ever. 


  



Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

  

the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Sept. 17, 2018, 4:35 p.m.
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Extreme rain potential in the 3-7 day period below. This is interesting for implications on mature crops waiting to be harvested. 



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png