KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, February 1, 2018
7:30 AM ET. January Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -7.4%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1890.7K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1527.9K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 190.6K)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (expected +0.6%; previous +3.0%)
Unit Labor Costs (expected +0.9%; previous +0.5%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 235K; previous 233K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +17K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1937000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -28K)
9:30 AM ET. IMF regular press briefing
9:45 AM ET. January US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 55.1)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. December Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (expected +0.3%; previous +0.8%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. January ISM Manufacturing Report on Business
Manufacturing PMI (expected 58.5; previous 59.7)
Prices Idx (previous 69.0)
Employment Idx (previous 57.0)
Inventories (previous 48.5)
New Orders Idx (previous 69.4)
Production Idx (previous 65.8)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2296B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -288B)
11:00 AM ET. January Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 54.5)
4:00 PM ET. January Domestic Auto Industry Sales
Auto Sales Annualized (expected 17.3M; previous 17.85M)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, February 2, 2018
8:30 AM ET. January U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +175K; previous +148K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 4.0%; previous 4.1%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 26.63)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.09)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.34%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +2.5%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous +2K)
Private Payroll (previous +146K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.7%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
9:45 AM ET. January ISM-NY Report on Business
Business Index (previous 56.3)
10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 95.0; previous 95.9)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 84.3)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.4%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 113.8)
10:00 AM ET. December Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (expected +1.5%; previous +1.3%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6834.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the NASDAQ 100 index renews this winter's rally into record territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 7047.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6946.98. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6834.11.
The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2801.79 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this year's rally, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2878.40. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2801.79. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2736.80.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight as they extend the decline off December's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 145-26 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 149-18 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 148-15. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 149-18. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 147-03. Second support is weekly support crossing at 145-26.
March T-notes were lower overnight as they extend this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 120.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.169 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 122.003. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.169. First support is the overnight low crossing at 121.100. Second support is weekly support crossing at 120.285.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: MarchNymex crude oil was slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.99 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off last June's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 66.66. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.99. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.44.
March heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidated some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 202.61 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 221.96 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 213.62. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 221.96. First support is the reaction low crossing at 202.61. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 199.52.
March unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 180.61 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 197.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 193.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 197.79. First support is the reaction low crossing at 183.88. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 180.61.
March Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's huge decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.896 is the next downside target.If March renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.281 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.177. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.281. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.896. Second support is January's low crossing at 2.693.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 87.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.36. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.30. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 88.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 87.45.
The March Euro was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at 126.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 125.34. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 126.74. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 124.03. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.68.
The March British Pound was higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4608 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3904 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1.4370. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4608. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4125. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3904.
The March Swiss Franc were slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the August-2016 high crossing at 1.0859 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0488 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is is last Thursday's high crossing at 1.0804. Second resistance is the August-2016 high crossing at 1.0859. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0635. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0488.
The March Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 82.04 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41. Second resistance is 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 82.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.59. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.48.
The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9063 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9218. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.9151. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9063.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1338.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off December's low, the contract high posted in August-2016 crossing at 1396.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1370.50. Second resistance is the August-2016 high crossing at 1396.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1338.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1304.60.
March silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.752 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 18.015 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 18.015. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.752. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 16.140.
March copper was slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 325.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. Second resistance is the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05. First support is the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61. Second support is the 75% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 303.58.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.65 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.52 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3.62 1/4. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 3.65 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.49 1/2. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.45 1/2.
March wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.29 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has likely been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, last September's high crossing at 4.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.58 3/4. Second resistance is last September's high crossing at 4.82. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.19 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.13 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 2 1/2-cents at 4.67 1/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wedneday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's high, September's high crossing at 4.77 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.30 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.71 1/4. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 4.77 1/2. First support is January's low crossing at 4.20 1/2. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high resistance crossing at 6.51. First support is January's low crossing at 6.04 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans were lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off January's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are poised to turn bearish with additional weakness near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.76 1/2 would signal an end to the rally off January's low. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.16 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.83 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.76 1/2.
March soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 328.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 351.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 344.90. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 351.20. First support is the reaction low crossing at 334.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 328.90.
March soybean oil was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.36 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off November's high, last June's low crossing at 31.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.36. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 34.10. First support is January's low crossing at 32.10. Second support is last June's low crossing at 31.85.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.65 at $72.25.
April hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 70.97 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.99 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.52. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.25. First support is December's low 70.97. Second support is November's low crossing at 70.62.
April cattle closed down $1.25 at 122.92.
April cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 127.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 126.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.37. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.
March Feeder cattle closed down $2.12 at $145.05.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 142.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 154.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 156.13. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 142.42. Second support is January's low crossing at 140.13.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's decline, December's low crossing at 11.83 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.45 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at 20.11 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's decline, the September-2015 low crossing at 12.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.91 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 75.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.