KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Friday, September 14, 2018

8:30 AM ET. August Import & Export Price Indexes

                       Import Prices (expected +0.1%; previous +0.0%)

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.1%)

                       Petroleum Prices (previous +0.9%)

8:30 AM ET. August Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services

                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.5%)

                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.6%)

                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.6%)

9:15 AM ET. August Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

                       Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.1%)\

                       Capacity Utilization % (expected 78.3%; previous 78.1%)

                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.0)

10:00 AM ET. September University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 96.0; previous 95.3)

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 87.3)

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 107.8)

10:00 AM ET. July Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales

                       Total Inventories (expected +0.5%; previous +0.1%)

Monday, September 17, 2018 

8:30 AM ET. September Empire State Manufacturing Survey

                       Mfg Idx (previous 25.6)

                       Employment Idx (previous 13.1)

                       New Orders Idx (previous 17.1)

                       Prices Received (previous 20.0)

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The December NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates above support marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 7448.27. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7567.50 has tempered the near-term bearish outlook. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7448.20 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the reaction low crossing at 7316.50. First resistance is August's high crossing at 7723.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7448.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7343.25. 

The December S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. If December resumes this summer's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average low crossing at 2885.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 2919.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2885.71. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2846.02.  

The Dow closed higher on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off April's low, January's high crossing at 26,616.71 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 25,754.32 would confirm that an important top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 26,183.49. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 26,616.71. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 25,754.32. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,466.81.        

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December T-bonds closed down 5/32's at 142-04.

December T-bonds closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 141-18 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-22 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 145-06. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 145-16. First support is the reaction low crossing at 141-18. Second support is August's low crossing at 141-04.        

December T-notes closed down 30-points at 119-110.

December T-notes closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high the reaction low crossing at 119.065 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.013 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 120.200. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 120.260. First support is the reaction low crossing at 119.065. Second support is August's low crossing at 118.275.        

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October crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 71.63 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 66.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 71.40. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 71.63. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 66.86. Second support is August's low crossing at 63.89.  

October heating oil closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 216.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the aforementioned rally, the December-2014 high crossing at 237.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 230.93. Second resistance is the December-2014 high crossing at 237.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 220.45. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 216.68.

October unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 211.50 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 192.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 206.24. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 211.50. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 192.60. Second support is August's low crossing at 186.62.

October Henry natural gas closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's rally.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.679 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 2.612 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.679. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.694. First support is September's low crossing at 2.612. Second support is July's low crossing at 2.612.   

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The December Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the late-July low crossing at 93.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 95.28 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is August's low crossing at 93.55. Second support is July's low crossing at 93.04.    

The December Euro closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 118.80 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 116.12 is needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 118.31. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 119.36. First support is August's low crossing at 114.09. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 113.54.    

The December British Pound closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 1.3281. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2975 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3281. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3435. First support is September's low crossing at 1.2845. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.2735.  

The December Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0480 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0326 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0480. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0605. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0326. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0240. 

The December Canadian Dollar closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Thursday's low crossing at 75.75, August's high crossing at 77.74 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 75.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 77.74. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 78.05. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 75.75. Second support is July's low crossing at 75.47.   

The December Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 0.0894 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 0.0924 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 0.0918. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 0.0924. First support is today's low crossing at 0.0899. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.0894.

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October gold closed lower on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1216.40 is the next upside target. If October resumes the decline off April's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1215.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1216.40. First support is August's low crossing at 1162.70. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10.

December silver closed lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past week. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.549 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off June's high, the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.549. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.199. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 13.965. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.        

December copper closed slightly lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 274.17 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 251.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 274.17. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 276.65. First support is August's low crossing at 257.45. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 251.03. 

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December Corn closed down 1 3/4-cents at 3.50 3/4. 

December corn closed closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline following Wednesday's bearish supply-demand report. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 3.40 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.69 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.69. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.82 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 3.48 3/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.40 1/4.   

December wheat closed down 9 3/4-cents at 4.97. 

December wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off August's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 4.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.33 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.33 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.49 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 4.95 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.90. 

December Kansas City Wheat closed down 5-cents at 5.01 3/4. 

December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 4.93 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.41 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.41. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.57 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.97. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.93 3/4.

December Minneapolis wheat closed down 3-cents at 5.62. 

December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off August's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 5.42 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.88 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.88 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.02. First support is today's low crossing at 5.60 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.42 1/4.  

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November soybeans closed down 4 1/4-cents at 8.35 3/4. 

November soybeans closed lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low are in or near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.67 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November resumes the decline off July's high, monthly support crossing at 8.17 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.67 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.07. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 8.21 1/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 8.17.

December soybean meal closed down $2.90 at 315.50. 

December soybean meal closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 324.80 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off July's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 301.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 316.90. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 324.80. First support is August's low crossing at 302.60. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 301.20. 

December soybean oil closed down 15 pts. at 27.84. 

December soybean oil closed lower on Thursday and has broken out to the downside of the July-August trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. If December extends the decline off the late-July high, monthly support crossing at 26.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 29.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 29.00. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 29.39. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 27.63. Second support is monthly support crossing at 26.99. 

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October hogs closed down $0.13 at $55.68. 

October hogs closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off the late-August low, August's high crossing at 59.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 53.00 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 57.25. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 59.50. First support is the late-August low crossing at 48.92. Second support is August's low crossing at 47.82.  

October cattle closed down $0.68 at 110.80. 

October cattle closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 112.25 is the next upside target. If October resumes the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 105.48 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 112.15. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 112.25. First support is August's low crossing at 106.20. Second support is July's low crossing at 105.48.   

October Feeder cattle closed up $0.38 at $155.40. 

October Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, weekly resistance crossing at 156.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 151.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 155.60. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 156.05. First support is September's low crossing at 148.10. Second support is August's low crossing at 145.62.    

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December coffee closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 9.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.25 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.         

December cocoa closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or near. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 22.46 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September renews the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 26.07 is the next upside target.  

October sugar closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-August-decline crossing at 11.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.56 would temper the near-term bullish outlook.  

December cotton closed lower on Thursday while extending the trading range of the past four-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 77.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 85.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.