INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Sept. 10, 2018, 8:06 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, September 10, 2018  

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. August Employment Trends Index

 



 

 

                       ETI (previous 109.89)

 



 

 

                       ETI, Y/Y% (previous +5.4%)

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. July Consumer Credit

 



 

 

                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +10.21B)

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7396.03 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. If September renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 7697.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7396.03. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7316.50.



The September S&P 500 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of last-week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2871.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is August's high crossing at 2917.00. Second resistance is is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2871.94. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2831.57.      



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower price are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 142-11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-20 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 145-29. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 146-11. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 143-06. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 142-11.  



September T-notes were slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 119.125. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.088 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 120.240. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is the reaction low crossing at 119.125. Second support is August's low crossing at 119.025.



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: OctoberNymex crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 71.63 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 71.40. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 71.63. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.60. Second support is August's low crossing at 63.89.    



October heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 218.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October resumes the rally off July's low, the December-2014 high crossing at 237.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 230.93. Second resistance is the December-2014 high crossing at 237.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 218.58. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 216.35. 



October unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October resumes the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 211.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 206.24. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 211.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.21. Second support is August's low crossing at 186.62.  



October Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 2.688 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.888 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.833. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.888. First support is August's low crossing at 2.751. Second support is July's low crossing at 2.688.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 95.28 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December resumes this year's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the late-July low crossing at 93.48 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 96.45. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 25% retracement level of the January-August-rally crossing at 94.15. Second support is the late-July low crossing at 93.48.  



The December Euro was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.52 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December renews the rally off August's low, the late-July high crossing at 118.80 is the next upside target. If December renews this summer's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 113.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is the late-July high crossing at 118.80. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 119.36. First support is August's low crossing at 114.09. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 113.54. 



The December British Pound was slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2632 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3083 would confirm that the short-term trend has turned sideways to higher while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3083. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.3228. First support is August's low crossing at 1.2735. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2632.  



The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0294 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0480 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.0460. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0480. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0294. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0229. 



The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 75.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.67 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 77.74. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 78.05. First support is July's low crossing at 75.47. Second support is June's low crossing at 75.00.  



The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past two-months. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 0.0924 is the next upside target. December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 0.0894 is the next downside target. If first resistance is August's high crossing at 0.0918. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 0.0924. First support is August's low crossing at 0.0901. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.0894. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was lower in overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the decline off April's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off August's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1219.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1220.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1219.60. First support is August's low crossing at 1162.70. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10.



December silver was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.653 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.472. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.653. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 13.960. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620. 



December copper was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off the late-July high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 251.03 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 275.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 275.97. Second resistance is the July 25th reaction high crossing at 288.85. First support is August's low crossing at 257.45. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 251.03.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.69 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 3.50 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.69 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.82 1/2. First support is August's low crossing at 3.55 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.50 1/4.  



December wheat was higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 4.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.40 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.40 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.82 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.07. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.90.        



December Kansas City Wheat closed down 2-cents at 5.14 3/4. 



December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off August's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.97 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.52 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.52 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.96. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.11 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.97.



December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 5.71 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.94 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.31 3/4. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 6.56. First support is the overnight low crossing at 5.67. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.42 1/4.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans were higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a pre-harvest low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.69 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November extends the decline off the late-July high, July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.15. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 9.42 3/4. First support is August's low crossing at 8.28 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4.



December soybean meal was steady overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 325.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off the late-July high, the June 2017 low crossing at 301.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 319.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 325.50. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 303.80. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 301.20. 



December soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the July-August trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes this summer's decline, July's low crossing at 29.78 is the next downside target. Closes above the late-July's high crossing at 29.39 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 29.11. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 29.39. First support is August's low crossing at 28.05. Second support is July's low crossing at 29.78. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed up $0.68 at $55.65. 



October hogs closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's rally, August's high crossing at 59.50 is the next upside target. If October renews the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 47.82 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 55.65. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 59.50. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 48.92. Second support is August's low crossing at 47.82.   



October cattle closed up $1.05 at 109.95. 



October cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at 112.15 is the next upside target. If October resumes the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 105.48 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 112.15. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 112.25. First support is August's low crossing at 106.20. Second support is July's low crossing at 105.48.   

 

October Feeder cattle closed up $1.43 at $152.95. 



October Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 155.38 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 148.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 153.45. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 155.38. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 146.35. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 145.42.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed slightly higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.39 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 9.39 is the next downside target.         



December cocoa closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.56 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September renews the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 26.07 is the next upside target.  



October sugar closed higher on Friday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.97 thereby opening the door for additional gains near-term. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 11.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.42 would temper the near-term bullish outlook.   



December cotton closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 77.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 85.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

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