Remember that old tradition where former presidents pretty much stayed out of the current presidents business? Guess Obama and Carter don't know about that.
Anyway, is this where we say something like "You did not build that"....
"Former President Barack Obama on Friday used a speech at the University of Illinois to sharply criticize his successor as well as claim ownership of the U.S. economic recovery.'
do something brave. Do something selfless. Do something just like Obama, kapernick, booker and harris. Lie like the devil
?
I guess I'm going to have to finally break down and give President Obama the credit where credit is due....
Cash For Clunkers Made America Great Again... WOWZA.
The real irony here is that Obama is taking credit for jobs he swore were not coming back.
Can you imagine the press coverage were Trump to be caught in such an inconsistency? Nahhh, the press has better things to do, right?
Trump can claim ownership of crashing the grain markets with his tariff and trade war talk.
Pubs can claim ownership of Trump for starting a trade war that initially crashed the grain markets.
Hi Cliff, do you ever read the grain comments on Market Forum? Just wondering.
Tim,
You must be referring to this:
By metmike - Aug. 29, 2018, 10:38 p.m.
Hi Cliff,
Of course the tariff situation made things worse but the last time that ending stocks as a % of usage were projected to be higher than this was the mid 1980's! Do you remember prices then?
Like you said, with harvest pressure, prices are likely to get even lower than where they are now.........which is 10 year lows. We could drop well below $8 based on the graphs below.
If you look at prices at the bottom, it's a reminder that soybeans were under $5 from early 1999 thru half of 2002 with fundamentals far more bullish than they are now.
So as long as we don't have unprecedented damage from flooding in September, as soon as the market trades on harvest pressure, the bottom really can fall out. The actual bottom will be lower because of the China situation but here on planet earth, the empirical data below means prices would still very likely have dropped below 10 year lows at harvest.
The last 3 years, in Sept. soybean prices were 9.05-2015, 9.43-2016 and 9.35-2017 with MUCH less bearish projections of ending stocks as a % of total use. Then they dropped even lower than that from harvest pressure.
People forget but the only reason that we got above $10 earlier this year was a drought in parts of South America for 2 months, then funds loading up with a huge speculative long position ahead of our growing season.
At the end of May 2018, when the weather turned from hot/dry forecasts to wet and crop estimates kept increasing......they covered their longs and built up a huge short position.
https://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing/grain-supply-and-demand-wasde
US Monthly Average Soybeans Price Received |
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Avg* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $/bu. | |||||||||||||
| 1960 | 2.01 | 1.99 | 1.99 | 2.02 | 2.00 | 1.97 | 1.97 | 1.99 | 1.97 | 1.94 | 1.96 | 1.99 | 1.98 |
| 1961 | 2.23 | 2.48 | 2.68 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 2.60 | 2.48 | 2.49 | 2.34 | 2.20 | 2.27 | 2.30 | 2.50 |
| 1962 | 2.32 | 2.32 | 2.34 | 2.38 | 2.36 | 2.34 | 2.35 | 2.33 | 2.25 | 2.23 | 2.30 | 2.35 | 2.32 |
| 1963 | 2.41 | 2.50 | 2.51 | 2.45 | 2.47 | 2.48 | 2.44 | 2.45 | 2.44 | 2.56 | 2.66 | 2.58 | 2.50 |
| 1964 | 2.65 | 2.57 | 2.55 | 2.45 | 2.36 | 2.35 | 2.34 | 2.35 | 2.51 | 2.55 | 2.57 | 2.71 | 2.50 |
| 1965 | 2.73 | 2.81 | 2.85 | 2.85 | 2.72 | 2.74 | 2.69 | 2.53 | 2.35 | 2.31 | 2.36 | 2.48 | 2.62 |
| 1966 | 2.67 | 2.77 | 2.71 | 2.78 | 2.90 | 3.04 | 3.37 | 3.49 | 2.97 | 2.78 | 2.80 | 2.82 | 2.93 |
| 1967 | 2.77 | 2.71 | 2.74 | 2.71 | 2.69 | 2.71 | 2.66 | 2.56 | 2.53 | 2.44 | 2.43 | 2.48 | 2.62 |
| 1968 | 2.53 | 2.57 | 2.57 | 2.56 | 2.58 | 2.54 | 2.52 | 2.51 | 2.40 | 2.32 | 2.40 | 2.42 | 2.49 |
| 1969 | 2.46 | 2.48 | 2.48 | 2.51 | 2.56 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.51 | 2.28 | 2.23 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.43 |
| 1970 | 2.36 | 2.40 | 2.42 | 2.48 | 2.52 | 2.60 | 2.72 | 2.65 | 2.66 | 2.77 | 2.86 | 2.77 | 2.60 |
| 1971 | 2.86 | 2.92 | 2.91 | 2.80 | 2.85 | 2.98 | 3.18 | 3.09 | 2.95 | 2.96 | 2.84 | 2.93 | 2.94 |
| 1972 | 2.92 | 3.00 | 3.20 | 3.37 | 3.35 | 3.32 | 3.34 | 3.36 | 3.26 | 3.13 | 3.38 | 3.95 | 3.30 |
| 1973 | 4.11 | 5.49 | 6.04 | 6.14 | 8.27 | 10.00 | 6.69 | 8.99 | 5.81 | 5.63 | 5.14 | 5.65 | 6.50 |
| 1974 | 5.87 | 6.07 | 5.96 | 5.15 | 5.21 | 5.13 | 6.11 | 7.55 | 7.32 | 8.17 | 7.44 | 7.03 | 6.42 |
| 1975 | 6.30 | 5.72 | 5.31 | 5.60 | 5.00 | 4.90 | 5.28 | 5.80 | 5.32 | 4.92 | 4.45 | 4.28 | 5.24 |
| 1976 | 4.46 | 4.50 | 4.46 | 4.52 | 4.87 | 6.16 | 6.73 | 6.07 | 6.65 | 5.90 | 6.11 | 6.56 | 5.58 |
| 1977 | 6.81 | 7.06 | 7.83 | 9.05 | 9.24 | 8.13 | 6.52 | 5.48 | 5.17 | 5.28 | 5.61 | 5.68 | 6.82 |
| 1978 | 5.75 | 5.53 | 6.20 | 6.49 | 6.77 | 6.69 | 6.40 | 6.21 | 6.20 | 6.26 | 6.41 | 6.49 | 6.28 |
| 1979 | 6.58 | 6.99 | 7.16 | 7.06 | 7.06 | 7.36 | 7.36 | 7.07 | 6.81 | 6.35 | 6.30 | 6.27 | 6.86 |
| 1980 | 6.39 | 6.20 | 5.94 | 5.63 | 5.76 | 5.91 | 6.75 | 7.18 | 7.59 | 7.68 | 8.18 | 7.80 | 6.75 |
| 1981 | 7.80 | 7.50 | 7.59 | 7.60 | 7.40 | 7.05 | 7.13 | 6.71 | 6.21 | 6.06 | 6.04 | 6.00 | 6.92 |
| 1982 | 6.13 | 6.04 | 5.99 | 6.17 | 6.27 | 6.12 | 5.99 | 5.59 | 5.22 | 5.06 | 5.34 | 5.46 | 5.78 |
| 1983 | 5.56 | 5.66 | 5.82 | 6.09 | 6.06 | 5.90 | 6.27 | 7.57 | 8.28 | 7.96 | 7.81 | 7.75 | 6.73 |
| 1984 | 7.85 | 7.28 | 7.68 | 7.83 | 8.12 | 7.99 | 6.95 | 6.50 | 6.09 | 6.07 | 6.01 | 5.82 | 7.02 |
| 1985 | 5.91 | 5.77 | 5.88 | 5.88 | 5.70 | 5.62 | 5.42 | 5.10 | 4.99 | 4.85 | 4.92 | 5.01 | 5.42 |
| 1986 | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.23 | 5.23 | 5.25 | 5.19 | 5.11 | 4.99 | 4.85 | 4.55 | 4.64 | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| 1987 | 4.70 | 4.69 | 4.73 | 4.90 | 5.20 | 5.36 | 5.25 | 5.02 | 5.02 | 5.04 | 5.36 | 5.63 | 5.08 |
| 1988 | 5.73 | 5.96 | 6.05 | 6.39 | 6.98 | 8.18 | 8.50 | 8.33 | 7.93 | 7.53 | 7.43 | 7.53 | 7.21 |
| 1989 | 7.69 | 7.41 | 7.51 | 7.29 | 7.20 | 7.05 | 6.83 | 6.07 | 5.70 | 5.55 | 5.66 | 5.64 | 6.63 |
| 1990 | 5.65 | 5.56 | 5.65 | 5.82 | 5.97 | 5.88 | 5.97 | 6.00 | 5.99 | 5.88 | 5.78 | 5.72 | 5.82 |
| 1991 | 5.71 | 5.65 | 5.76 | 5.77 | 5.67 | 5.56 | 5.36 | 5.66 | 5.64 | 5.48 | 5.48 | 5.45 | 5.60 |
| 1992 | 5.54 | 5.59 | 5.67 | 5.66 | 5.87 | 5.94 | 5.59 | 5.40 | 5.36 | 5.26 | 5.36 | 5.61 | 5.57 |
| 1993 | 5.58 | 5.56 | 5.65 | 5.73 | 5.81 | 5.90 | 6.56 | 6.56 | 6.21 | 6.01 | 6.32 | 6.64 | 6.04 |
| 1994 | 6.72 | 6.71 | 6.73 | 6.57 | 6.77 | 6.72 | 5.92 | 5.58 | 5.47 | 5.30 | 5.36 | 5.41 | 6.11 |
| 1995 | 5.47 | 5.40 | 5.51 | 5.55 | 5.56 | 5.68 | 5.90 | 5.83 | 5.98 | 6.16 | 6.40 | 6.76 | 5.85 |
| 1996 | 6.78 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.43 | 7.69 | 7.41 | 7.62 | 7.82 | 7.79 | 6.94 | 6.90 | 6.91 | 7.27 |
| 1997 | 7.13 | 7.38 | 7.97 | 8.23 | 8.40 | 8.16 | 7.52 | 7.25 | 6.72 | 6.49 | 6.86 | 6.72 | 7.40 |
| 1998 | 6.69 | 6.57 | 6.40 | 6.26 | 6.26 | 6.16 | 6.14 | 5.43 | 5.25 | 5.18 | 5.39 | 5.37 | 5.93 |
| 1999 | 5.32 | 4.80 | 4.61 | 4.63 | 4.50 | 4.44 | 4.19 | 4.39 | 4.57 | 4.48 | 4.45 | 4.43 | 4.57 |
| 2000 | 4.62 | 4.79 | 4.91 | 5.00 | 5.19 | 4.93 | 4.53 | 4.45 | 4.59 | 4.45 | 4.55 | 4.78 | 4.73 |
| 2001 | 4.68 | 4.46 | 4.39 | 4.22 | 4.33 | 4.46 | 4.79 | 4.85 | 4.53 | 4.09 | 4.16 | 4.20 | 4.43 |
| 2002 | 4.22 | 4.22 | 4.38 | 4.47 | 4.64 | 4.88 | 5.35 | 5.53 | 5.39 | 5.20 | 5.46 | 5.46 | 4.93 |
| 2003 | 5.51 | 5.55 | 5.59 | 5.82 | 6.07 | 6.09 | 5.82 | 5.68 | 6.06 | 6.60 | 7.05 | 7.17 | 6.08 |
| 2004 | 7.35 | 8.28 | 9.28 | 9.62 | 9.56 | 9.08 | 8.46 | 6.83 | 5.84 | 5.56 | 5.36 | 5.45 | 7.56 |
| 2005 | 5.57 | 5.42 | 5.95 | 6.03 | 6.20 | 6.58 | 6.84 | 6.15 | 5.77 | 5.67 | 5.62 | 5.77 | 5.96 |
| 2006 | 5.88 | 5.67 | 5.57 | 5.52 | 5.68 | 5.61 | 5.61 | 5.23 | 5.24 | 5.52 | 6.07 | 6.18 | 5.65 |
| 2007 | 6.38 | 6.87 | 6.95 | 6.88 | 7.13 | 7.51 | 7.56 | 7.72 | 8.18 | 8.36 | 9.41 | 10.00 | 7.75 |
| 2008 | 9.96 | 11.70 | 11.50 | 12.00 | 12.10 | 13.20 | 13.30 | 12.80 | 10.70 | 9.94 | 9.38 | 9.24 | 11.32 |
| 2009 | 9.97 | 9.55 | 9.12 | 9.79 | 10.70 | 11.40 | 10.80 | 10.80 | 9.75 | 9.44 | 9.53 | 9.80 | 10.05 |
| 2010 | 9.79 | 9.41 | 9.39 | 9.47 | 9.41 | 9.45 | 9.79 | 10.10 | 9.98 | 10.20 | 11.10 | 11.60 | 9.97 |
| 2011 | 11.60 | 12.70 | 12.70 | 13.10 | 13.20 | 13.20 | 13.20 | 13.40 | 12.20 | 11.80 | 11.70 | 11.50 | 12.53 |
| 2012 | 11.90 | 12.20 | 13.00 | 13.80 | 14.00 | 13.90 | 15.40 | 16.20 | 14.30 | 14.20 | 14.30 | 14.30 | 13.96 |
| 2013 | 14.30 | 14.60 | 14.60 | 14.40 | 14.90 | 15.10 | 15.30 | 14.10 | 13.30 | 12.50 | 12.70 | 13.00 | 14.07 |
| 2014 | 12.90 | 13.20 | 13.70 | 14.30 | 14.40 | 14.30 | 13.10 | 12.40 | 10.90 | 9.97 | 10.20 | 10.30 | 12.47 |
| 2015 | 10.30 | 9.91 | 9.85 | 9.69 | 9.58 | 9.58 | 9.95 | 9.71 | 9.05 | 8.81 | 8.68 | 8.76 | 9.49 |
| 2016 | 8.71 | 8.51 | 8.56 | 9.04 | 9.76 | 10.20 | 10.20 | 9.93 | 9.43 | 9.30 | 9.46 | 9.64 | 9.40 |
| 2017 | 9.71 | 9.86 | 9.69 | 9.32 | 9.26 | 9.10 | 9.42 | 9.24 | 9.35 | 9.18 | 9.22 | 9.30 | 9.39 |
| 2018 | 9.30 | 9.49 | 9.81 |
A good example of several. :-)