Weather Thursday
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Started by metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 9:26 a.m.

It's September 6th already. Another day is gone! Do something special to remember this next day! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it today.


 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!


The heavy rains are farther southeast now and will increase early this weekend when Gordon's moisture is merged with a Midwest front. 6+ inches possible from e.MO/IL/IN. By the rains don't stick around for very long.

Drying after this the following week minimizes the damage.


 The latest rain forecasts are below...........broken down into each period coming up. Then the 1 week totals.


Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126






http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Comments
By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 9:29 a.m.
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There will continue to be a risk of excessive rains this week.............high confidence...........and that it will go up when Gordon's moisture merges with a Midwest weather system.


Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  



Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 9:29 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk.  Hit the map for full screen. Main  risk is heavy rains.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
         
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
     
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 9:31 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Friday.  Hot in the Eastern USA. Very cool in the Plains/Midwest..................cooler air to cover a lot of area this week, that was supposed to have heat in last week's forecast.


                    

By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 9:34 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7.
Cooler air Plains/Midwest/Great Lakes, Northeast. This surges a bit  farther south over the weekend! Starting to warm back up next week.



http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 9:36 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?  We are now 7 weeks past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.

Not far from average. Warming up again next week to well above average.............but average in mid September is not that hot anymore.



High temperature departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 9:41 a.m.
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Here are the surface map features for that same days 3-7 period:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif


A cold front with the remnants of Gordon dump heavy rains..........then exits on Sunday.

That system will be strong enough to have a small  surface (low) reflection and dump some copious rain amounts along its path.  It will be moving, so hefty rain totals directly from Gordon will only last something like 6-12 hours in any spot once things get moving early in the weekend...............then be gone before the start of next work week, with a Canadian High pressure settling in at first, then warming up as the week goes on.

This will not be the best weather for soybeans but we dry out after Sunday!

Heads up along the East Coast in a week..........Hurricane Florence is threatening!

By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 9:42 a.m.
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Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!  

Humid air in place.  Gulf of Mexico moisture +fairly high soil moisture. This H2O will continue to be used by our main weather maker the next several days. Added moisture will come from Gordon.

 Very dry air N.Plains to Upper Midwest.


Current Dew Points

By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 9:42 a.m.
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Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature. Heat Index is a big  factor over the Eastern 1/3 or the US right now.Current US Heat Index Map

By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 9:44 a.m.
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As warm, moist air moves northward,  with southerly winds(on the backside of a huge high pressure system along the East Coast) rains  will continue the next several days.

But everything has shifted southeast with a cold front, the leading edge of cooler and drier air taking front stage!

The remnants of Gordon are moving northwest and will soon merge with the cold front.


 

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Current US Surface Weather Map

By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 9:46 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image.  Rains with the Midwest cold front have shifted farther southeast. Rains from Gordon in the south have moved west. They will be merging soon.



http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 9:49 a.m.
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Satellite picture.    Clouds from southeast Canada across the Great Lakes/Midwest from a cold front.

Clouds from Gordon in the South. The 2 will merge.

US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 9:51 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours.  Heaviest in the Midwest(shifted southeast from previous heavy rain events) and from Gordon in the South(moving northwest).  They will merge soon. 


By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 9:51 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 9:52 a.m.
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Much of the Cornbelt is in great shape for early September so the crops were fed lots of yield making H2O in August.

Too wet in a zone across n.IA/s.MN to w.WI/nw.IL..............and the East Coast. It will get  wetter for an area just southeast of the wettest areas later this week/into the weekend.

Drier next week, which will minimize the problems to the crops.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 9:54 a.m.
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Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Bountiful rains for most of the Cornbelt..............and points eastward and westward. This increased yields in August!!!

Now we have had too much rain!  But the too much rain has shifted southeast as expected! It will come to an end very early next week and we will dry out.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 9:56 a.m.
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Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday. Drought has been shrinking but still persists in N.Missouri  and Texas.........this measure takes into account the long term precip/sub soil moisture and goes back over MANY months.


            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    

Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 10:02 a.m.
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Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.


Today:     Big Heat in the East is exiting stage right. Cooler Plains/U.Midwest to settle south!
NCEP Ensemble t = 024 hour forecast product



In 5+ days:

Very warm West.......starting to spread back in.
NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product



In 10+ days:

Very warm for much of the country. Heat spreads east again. Mid September heat is not mid July heat! Cold air Canada down to the border.
NCEP Ensemble t = 264 hour forecast product


Day 15  Positive anomalies for much of the country. How warm will it be in the East?? Heat in mid September is not like heat in mid July! Cold in Canada.

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 10:04 a.m.
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The top map is the ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

Question is........how dominant will the heat ridge be in the SouthEast to possibly East as week 2 progresses?  Will it be suppressed south?

Powerful jet stream in Canada! How far south will it dip into the US and where? Cold air pooling in Canada...........will it surge across the border later this month?

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 21, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 10:06 a.m.
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This was the GFS ensemble mean from 06z.....the last run. Nothing left of the stout heat ridge in the Southeast. Upper level trough in the West, similar to the Canadian model ensembles.


   

gefs-mean-sprd_namer_372_500_vort_ht.gif

By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 10:09 a.m.
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The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4.

Quite a bit different from yesterday, that featured much cooler air in Canada coming south.  Drier in late September............good for harvest.

September is gradually getting cooler, almost every year and heating degree days start replacing cooling degree days as being the most important.

In October onward, warmth like this, especially in the Northern States will be increasingly BEARISH because it decreases the need for warming energy vs heat currently still increasing the need for cooling energy.  

Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 3:27 p.m.
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The trend of less rain in week 2 has really continued here for the 4th day in a row. You might remember that all the week 2 forecasts last week featured widespread above average rains with fairly high probabilities. 

Like the previous 3 days we continue to have a large area with BELOW average rain. Many areas will be water logged with excessive rains during week 1 and the drier weather will be just what the grain doctor ordered to minimize/lessen disease pressure and other issues from wet crops.

Early harvest, will not be so early in places that need awhile to dry out...........but week 2 should make things better and harvest pressure should increase later this month........which the market traded today.

The heat in week 2 will assist in drying out the corn crop as well as the ground.  Hot weather from mid Sept onward is just loosing it's ability to be bullish for natural gas because it can't stay hot enough for long enough anymore.




6-10 day Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


8-14 day Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 3:29 p.m.
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Threat for heavy rains in the 3-7 day period.  Moving east. The last of the heavy rains on 9/9- 9/10 until Florence hits the East Coast area. Speaking of which, note the huge waves coming to the East Coast, starting on 9/9 and last all of next week from Florence. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png