KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, September 6, 2018
7:30 AM ET. August Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -27.1%)
8:15 AM ET. August ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +190000; previous +219000)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Revised Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity (expected +2.9%; previous +0.4%)
Unit Labor Costs (expected -0.9%; previous +2.9%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 213K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +3K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1708000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -20K)
9:45 AM ET. August US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 56.0)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. July Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (expected -0.6%; previous +0.7%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +1.0%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
10:00 AM ET. August ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business
Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 56.0; previous 55.7)
Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 56.5)
Prices Idx (previous 63.4)
Employment Idx (previous 56.1)
New Orders Idx (previous 57.0)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2505B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +70B)
11:00 AM ET. August Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 405.792M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.566M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 232.774M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.554M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 130.001M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.837M)
Refinery Usage (previous 96.3%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 22.137M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.596M)
12:00 PM ET. August Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, September 7, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 700.5K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 702.5K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 414.8K)
8:30 AM ET. August U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +190K; previous +157K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.8%; previous 3.9%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.05)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.07)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.26%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +2.7%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous -13K)
Private Payroll (previous +170K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.9%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Quarterly Services
Monday, September 10, 2018
10:00 AM ET. August Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 109.89)
ETI, Y/Y% (previous +5.4%)
3:00 PM ET. July Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +10.21B)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. U.S. stocks closed mostly lower Wednesday with the technology sector posting its worst single-day decline since late July, triggering a huge decline in the Nasdaq. The weakness in tech stocks came as Facebook Inc. and Twitter Inc. executives testified on Capitol Hill about online misinformation. Trade-related concerns also weighed on the market, with the U.S. and Canada set to restart high-stakes efforts to resolve differences as they work toward recasting the North American Free Trade Agreement.Stochastics and the RSI are bearish with this week's decline signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7494.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 7697.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7494.41. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7380.24.
The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2868.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 2917.00. Second resistance is is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2868.94. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2825.07.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower price are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 142-11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 144-23 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 145-29. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 146-11. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 143-21. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 142-11.
September T-notes were slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.014 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 121.030 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 120.240. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.014. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 119.125.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: OctoberNymex crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 71.63 is the next upside target.First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 71.40. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 71.63. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.50. Second support is August's low crossing at 63.89.
October heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 216.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off July's low, the December-2014 high crossing at 237.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 230.93. Second resistance is the December-2014 high crossing at 237.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 223.01. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 217.80.
October unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 194.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October resumes the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 211.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 206.24. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 211.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 194.57. Second support is August's low crossing at 186.62.
October Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 2.751 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.905 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.905. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 2.982. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.783. Second support is August's low crossing at 2.751.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.43 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September resumes this year's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off August's high, the late-July low crossing at 93.87 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 96.87. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 25% retracement level of the January-August-rally crossing at 94.52. Second support is the late-July low crossing at 93.87.
The September Euro was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.62 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September renews the rally off August's low, the late-July high crossing at 117.90 is the next upside target. If September renews this summer's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78 is the next downside target. First resistance is the late-July high crossing at 117.90. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 118.52. First support is August's low crossing at 113.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78.
The September British Pound was slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2600 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3039 would signal that the short-term trend has turned sideways to higher while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3039. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3240. First support is August's low crossing at 1.2678. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2600.
The September Swiss Franc was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0188 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0383 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.0373. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0383. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0272. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0137.
The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 75.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.67 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 77.63. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 77.94. First support is July's low crossing at 75.31. Second support is June's low crossing at 74.80.
The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past two-months. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. September extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 0.8867 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 0.9172 is the next upside target. If First resistance is August's high crossing at 0.9126. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 0.9172. First support is August's low crossing at 0.8943. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.8867.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was higher in overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1223.30 is the next upside target. If October resumes the decline off April's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1220.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1222.20. First support is August's low crossing at 1162.70. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10.
September silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.679 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.469. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.679. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 13.960. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.
September copper gapped up and was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off August's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 275.38 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off the late-July high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 275.38. Second resistance is the July 25th reaction high crossing at 286.70. First support is August's low crossing at 255.20. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.68 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 3.50 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.68 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.82 1/2. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 3.55 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.50 1/4.
December wheat was slightly lower in quiet trading overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 5.07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.47 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.47 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.82 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.07. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.90.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 9-cents at 5.28.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 5.11 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.61 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.61 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.96. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.11 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.97.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 5.71 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.01 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.31 3/4. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 6.56. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.71 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.42 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off the late-July high, July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.15. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 9.42 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 8.28 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4.
December soybean meal was slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 326.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off the late-July high, the June 2017 low crossing at 301.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 309.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 320.30. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 303.80. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 301.20.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the July-August trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes this summer's decline, July's low crossing at 29.78 is the next downside target. Closes above the late-July's high crossing at 29.39 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 29.11. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 29.39. First support is August's low crossing at 28.05. Second support is July's low crossing at 29.78.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed up $0.90 at $51.98.
October hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 53.59 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 47.82 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 55.65. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 59.50. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 48.92. Second support is August's low crossing at 47.82.
October cattle closed down $0.83 at 109.05.
October cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at 112.15 is the next upside target. If October resumes the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 105.48 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 112.15. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 112.25. First support is August's low crossing at 106.20. Second support is July's low crossing at 105.48.
October Feeder cattle closed down $0.35 at $151.08.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 152.35 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 148.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 152.35. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 153.45. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 146.35. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 145.42.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed higher on Wednesday due to short covering. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.48 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 9.39 is the next downside target.
December cocoa closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.42 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September renews the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 26.07 is the next upside target.
October sugar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.89 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If October renews the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 9.83 is the next downside target.
December cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 85.17 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 77.99 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!