INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Jan. 29, 2018, 7:47 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, January 29, 2018   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December Personal Income & Outlays

 



 

 

                       Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.8%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.5%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. January Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

 



 

 

                       Business Activity (previous 29.7)

 



 

 

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 32.8)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was lower due to profit taking overnight. U.S. stock futures are poised for a weaker open for equities when the day session opens later this morning. Major indexes appear set to take a breather from their record-setting run since the start of the year. That caution comes as a busy week kicks off, with investors bracing for a Federal Reserve meeting, a speech by President Donald Trump, a monthly jobs report and a large number of earnings reports to be released this week. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 index extends this winter's rally into record territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6767.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 7047.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6905.75. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6767.80.  



The March S&P 500 was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. Stocks have a packed week of data releases beginning with an update on employment later today with readings on personal income, consumer spending and core inflation for December due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2782.14 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2878.40. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2829.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2782.14.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were sharply lower overnight as they renew the decline off December's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 145-26 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 150-08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 149-06. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 150-08. First support is the overnight low crossing at 147-21. Second support is weekly support crossing at 145-26.  



March T-notes were sharply lower overnight as they extend the decline off last September's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 120.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.276 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 122.103. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.276. First support is the overnight low crossing at 121.180. Second support is weekly support crossing at 120.285. 



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: MarchNymex crude oil was slightly lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last June's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 66.66. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.43. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 59.94.



March heating oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally but remains above broken resistance marked by the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.21. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 221.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 202.61 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 213.62. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 221.96. First support is the reaction low crossing at 202.61. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 198.60.      



March unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 197.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 186.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 193.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 197.79. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 186.28. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 179.81. 



March Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.281 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.955 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.177. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.281. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.035. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.955.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 87.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.79. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.70. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 88.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 87.45.



The March Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.12 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at 126.74 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 125.34. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 126.74. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 123.49. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.12. 



The March British Pound was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3807 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4608 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1.4370. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4608. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4020. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3807.  



The March Swiss Franc were lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the August-2016 high crossing at 1.0859 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0423 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is is last Thursday's high crossing at 1.0804. Second resistance is the August-2016 high crossing at 1.0859.  First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0543. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0423.     



The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 82.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41. Second resistance is 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 82.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.39. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.48.



The March Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9025 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9218. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.9110. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9025.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1334.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off December's low, the contract high posted in August-2016 crossing at 1396.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1370.50. Second resistance is the August-2016 high crossing at 1396.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1344.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1334.40.



March silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that  a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.755 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 18.015 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 18.015. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.755. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 16.140. 



March copper was slightly higher overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 322.06 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. Second resistance is the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05. First support is the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61. Second support is  the 75% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 303.58.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 3.60 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.51 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is December's high crossing at 3.60 1/2. Second resistance is last October's high crossing at 3.69 1/4. First support is January's low crossing at 3.45 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32. 



March wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Last Friday's close above the reaction high crossing at 4.37 confirms that an important low has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at 4.50 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.29 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.  First resistance is November's high crossing at 4.50 1/4. Second resistance is the late-October high crossing at 4.60 3/4. First support is January's low crossing at 4.13 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2.    



March Kansas City Wheat closed up 8-cents at 4.43. 



March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term trend change has taken place. If March renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 4.43. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.17 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2.      



March Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.21 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high resistance crossing at 6.51. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 6.04 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.72 1/4 would signal an end to this month's short covering rebound. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 9.95 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.72 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 9.44 1/2.



March soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 326.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 351.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 344.90. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 351.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 334.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 326.10.



March soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.03 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, last June's low crossing at 31.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.03. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.47. First support is January's low crossing at 32.10. Second support is last June's low crossing at 31.85.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed down $0.20 at $72.28. 



February hogs closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 76.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 74.25. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 76.91. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.13. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 70.14. 



February cattle closed up $2.13 at 124.60. 



February cattle closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If February extends the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 126.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 126.03. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 126.78. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.07. Second support is January's low crossing at 116.25.

 

March Feeder cattle closed up $2.80 at $146.73. 



March Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 148.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 140.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.55. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. First support is the reaction low crossing at 140.12. Second support is December's low crossing at 138.30.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.48 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 11.83 is the next downside target. 



March cocoa closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 20.11 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



March sugar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the September-2015 low crossing at 12.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.16 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.



March cotton closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.53 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 87.18 is the next upside target. 

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