Welcome to the new month, March.
I think that some in the market anticipated the possibility of this attack on Iran but would think we could see some price gaps on the open for some markets.
Gaps higher for the liquid energies stand out as being likely!
What do you guys think.
Will the stock market gap lower?
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 year: Major high last July, 2025. Big price move up in 2026 as the US made more and more moves to strike Iran.
2. 1 week. Steady drop Mon-Wed. Sudden spike up on Thursday (horizontal lines) as the new news leaked out about immediate actions being taken ahead of this attack. Strong move up on Friday as the market dialed in the attack. Closing near the highs sets us up for a GAP HIGHER on the open tonight!
3. 10 years. Major COVID low in 2020. Major war in Ukraine high in 2022. Pretty long lived downtrend channel in 2024/25/early 2026..... which we are going to break out of on the open tonight, after closing at the top of the channel on Friday.
This will be a gap higher on the daily, weekly and monthly bar. It's doubtful that we would gap above the 2025 highs around $74. The front month right now is the April contract.
It's always possible that we see a buy the rumor, sell the fact type of reaction with the market dialing this in the past 2 months and it already being in the price.
Crude +$3 on the open from bids/offers at the moment!
Gap higher natural gas in sympathy!
Gaps higher metals?
Gap lower stock market?
All those calls verified.
Crude at +$2.
Bad quote. Crude opened +$8!!!
The service below was unable to properly graph the price tonight. I drew a red line at the top to show where crude opened, at $75!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
60,000 contracts traded in just the front month April in 15 minutes. That's got to be close to, if not a new record for a Sunday Night open.
Crude is up less than $3 now after opening +$8 and close to the highs.
180,000 contracts traded in just 3 hours for the front month, April contract. That's close to the average volume for the entire session that goes thru tomorrow afternoon!!!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
This source continues to be unable to graph tonight's prices correctly. The top line is where we opened, which was actually just above last Summer's high!!
That's what happens when you have thousands of buy at the market orders on the open and NOBODY wants to sell.
In that situation, the market had to go high enough to match those massive buy orders with the equivalent number of contracts to sell.....which was +$8 higher!!
We're back below $70 right now.
