For the weather that effects crops, go here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/11739/
Still have excessive rain in the forecast for the next several days(no changes).
I just realized that the low for SX back in mid July was to just above 826 not 835. So this current move down just below 829 last night has not made new lows. My apologies for getting that wrong.
Grain do not open again until Tuesday Morning 8:30am. Have a Wonderful Labor Day Weekend!
Export sales from yesterday:
Crop ratings from Monday:
USDA crop condition report:
Corn was unchanged and beans improved` 1%. Crop ratings are not going to be much of a factor for the rest of this year.
10% of the corn crop is already mature, compared to 5% average.
Pro Farmer national crop pegs: Corn 14.501 billion bu., yield 177.3 bpa (+/- 1%). Soybeans 4.683 billion bu., yield 53.0 bpa (+/- 2%). @BGrete goes through the Iowa and Minnesota state number and tallies the official Pro Farmer Newsletter estimates. https://soundcloud.com/narrowrow/aug-24-pro-farmer-midwest-crop-tour-official-yield-estimates …
Was thinking the lows are in for corn before the USDA report earlier this month +favorable weather for filling but would not be surprised at new lows now.
Flooding rain event is lending strength today.
CZ around 362.......12c off the lows right now and 66c off the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month Sept.
Corn historical perspective:
Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago
3 month below September(front month)
1 year below
5 year below
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Correction:
I just realized that the low for SX back in mid July was to just above 826 not 835. So this current move down just below 829 last night has not made new lows. My apologies for getting that wrong.
I thought the lows were in for beans but that was before the USDA fed the market one of the most bearish crop reports ever. 2019 to have the highest stocks in history!
Also, outstanding August weather has increased the crop size.
SX dropped just below 8.30 but DID NOT make new lows. Excessive rains coming up ARE providing some support.
These are 10 year lows and over $2 below the $10.60 below late May highs.
If these excessive rain events go away we will probably go much lower...........or when they end.
Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently below 10 year lows !!!!!
Charts below not updated this morning and is still Sept contract.
Soybeans 3 months below......bottom in.
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Soybeans 1 year chart below
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Soybeans 5 years below
Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, Currently, we are below the 10 year lows!
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By metmike - Aug. 29, 2018, 10:38 p.m.
Hi Cliff,
Of course the tariff situation made things worse but the last time that ending stocks as a % of usage were projected to be higher than this was the mid 1980's! Do you remember prices then?
Like you said, with harvest pressure, prices are likely to get even lower than where they are now.........which is 10 year lows. We could drop well below $8 based on the graphs below.
If you look at prices at the bottom, it's a reminder that soybeans were under $5 from early 1999 thru half of 2002 with fundamentals far more bullish than they are now.
So as long as we don't have unprecedented damage from flooding in September, as soon as the market trades on harvest pressure, the bottom really can fall out. The actual bottom will be lower because of the China situation but here on planet earth, the empirical data below means prices would still very likely have dropped below 10 year lows at harvest.
The last 3 years, in Sept. soybean prices were 9.05-2015, 9.43-2016 and 9.35-2017 with MUCH less bearish projections of ending stocks as a % of total use. Then they dropped even lower than that from harvest pressure.
People forget but the only reason that we got above $10 earlier this year was a drought in parts of South America for 2 months, then funds loading up with a huge speculative long position ahead of our growing season.
At the end of May 2018, when the weather turned from hot/dry forecasts to wet and crop estimates kept increasing......they covered their longs and built up a huge short position.
https://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing/grain-supply-and-demand-wasde
US Monthly Average Soybeans Price Received |
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Avg* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $/bu. | |||||||||||||
| 1960 | 2.01 | 1.99 | 1.99 | 2.02 | 2.00 | 1.97 | 1.97 | 1.99 | 1.97 | 1.94 | 1.96 | 1.99 | 1.98 |
| 1961 | 2.23 | 2.48 | 2.68 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 2.60 | 2.48 | 2.49 | 2.34 | 2.20 | 2.27 | 2.30 | 2.50 |
| 1962 | 2.32 | 2.32 | 2.34 | 2.38 | 2.36 | 2.34 | 2.35 | 2.33 | 2.25 | 2.23 | 2.30 | 2.35 | 2.32 |
| 1963 | 2.41 | 2.50 | 2.51 | 2.45 | 2.47 | 2.48 | 2.44 | 2.45 | 2.44 | 2.56 | 2.66 | 2.58 | 2.50 |
| 1964 | 2.65 | 2.57 | 2.55 | 2.45 | 2.36 | 2.35 | 2.34 | 2.35 | 2.51 | 2.55 | 2.57 | 2.71 | 2.50 |
| 1965 | 2.73 | 2.81 | 2.85 | 2.85 | 2.72 | 2.74 | 2.69 | 2.53 | 2.35 | 2.31 | 2.36 | 2.48 | 2.62 |
| 1966 | 2.67 | 2.77 | 2.71 | 2.78 | 2.90 | 3.04 | 3.37 | 3.49 | 2.97 | 2.78 | 2.80 | 2.82 | 2.93 |
| 1967 | 2.77 | 2.71 | 2.74 | 2.71 | 2.69 | 2.71 | 2.66 | 2.56 | 2.53 | 2.44 | 2.43 | 2.48 | 2.62 |
| 1968 | 2.53 | 2.57 | 2.57 | 2.56 | 2.58 | 2.54 | 2.52 | 2.51 | 2.40 | 2.32 | 2.40 | 2.42 | 2.49 |
| 1969 | 2.46 | 2.48 | 2.48 | 2.51 | 2.56 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.51 | 2.28 | 2.23 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.43 |
| 1970 | 2.36 | 2.40 | 2.42 | 2.48 | 2.52 | 2.60 | 2.72 | 2.65 | 2.66 | 2.77 | 2.86 | 2.77 | 2.60 |
| 1971 | 2.86 | 2.92 | 2.91 | 2.80 | 2.85 | 2.98 | 3.18 | 3.09 | 2.95 | 2.96 | 2.84 | 2.93 | 2.94 |
| 1972 | 2.92 | 3.00 | 3.20 | 3.37 | 3.35 | 3.32 | 3.34 | 3.36 | 3.26 | 3.13 | 3.38 | 3.95 | 3.30 |
| 1973 | 4.11 | 5.49 | 6.04 | 6.14 | 8.27 | 10.00 | 6.69 | 8.99 | 5.81 | 5.63 | 5.14 | 5.65 | 6.50 |
| 1974 | 5.87 | 6.07 | 5.96 | 5.15 | 5.21 | 5.13 | 6.11 | 7.55 | 7.32 | 8.17 | 7.44 | 7.03 | 6.42 |
| 1975 | 6.30 | 5.72 | 5.31 | 5.60 | 5.00 | 4.90 | 5.28 | 5.80 | 5.32 | 4.92 | 4.45 | 4.28 | 5.24 |
| 1976 | 4.46 | 4.50 | 4.46 | 4.52 | 4.87 | 6.16 | 6.73 | 6.07 | 6.65 | 5.90 | 6.11 | 6.56 | 5.58 |
| 1977 | 6.81 | 7.06 | 7.83 | 9.05 | 9.24 | 8.13 | 6.52 | 5.48 | 5.17 | 5.28 | 5.61 | 5.68 | 6.82 |
| 1978 | 5.75 | 5.53 | 6.20 | 6.49 | 6.77 | 6.69 | 6.40 | 6.21 | 6.20 | 6.26 | 6.41 | 6.49 | 6.28 |
| 1979 | 6.58 | 6.99 | 7.16 | 7.06 | 7.06 | 7.36 | 7.36 | 7.07 | 6.81 | 6.35 | 6.30 | 6.27 | 6.86 |
| 1980 | 6.39 | 6.20 | 5.94 | 5.63 | 5.76 | 5.91 | 6.75 | 7.18 | 7.59 | 7.68 | 8.18 | 7.80 | 6.75 |
| 1981 | 7.80 | 7.50 | 7.59 | 7.60 | 7.40 | 7.05 | 7.13 | 6.71 | 6.21 | 6.06 | 6.04 | 6.00 | 6.92 |
| 1982 | 6.13 | 6.04 | 5.99 | 6.17 | 6.27 | 6.12 | 5.99 | 5.59 | 5.22 | 5.06 | 5.34 | 5.46 | 5.78 |
| 1983 | 5.56 | 5.66 | 5.82 | 6.09 | 6.06 | 5.90 | 6.27 | 7.57 | 8.28 | 7.96 | 7.81 | 7.75 | 6.73 |
| 1984 | 7.85 | 7.28 | 7.68 | 7.83 | 8.12 | 7.99 | 6.95 | 6.50 | 6.09 | 6.07 | 6.01 | 5.82 | 7.02 |
| 1985 | 5.91 | 5.77 | 5.88 | 5.88 | 5.70 | 5.62 | 5.42 | 5.10 | 4.99 | 4.85 | 4.92 | 5.01 | 5.42 |
| 1986 | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.23 | 5.23 | 5.25 | 5.19 | 5.11 | 4.99 | 4.85 | 4.55 | 4.64 | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| 1987 | 4.70 | 4.69 | 4.73 | 4.90 | 5.20 | 5.36 | 5.25 | 5.02 | 5.02 | 5.04 | 5.36 | 5.63 | 5.08 |
| 1988 | 5.73 | 5.96 | 6.05 | 6.39 | 6.98 | 8.18 | 8.50 | 8.33 | 7.93 | 7.53 | 7.43 | 7.53 | 7.21 |
| 1989 | 7.69 | 7.41 | 7.51 | 7.29 | 7.20 | 7.05 | 6.83 | 6.07 | 5.70 | 5.55 | 5.66 | 5.64 | 6.63 |
| 1990 | 5.65 | 5.56 | 5.65 | 5.82 | 5.97 | 5.88 | 5.97 | 6.00 | 5.99 | 5.88 | 5.78 | 5.72 | 5.82 |
| 1991 | 5.71 | 5.65 | 5.76 | 5.77 | 5.67 | 5.56 | 5.36 | 5.66 | 5.64 | 5.48 | 5.48 | 5.45 | 5.60 |
| 1992 | 5.54 | 5.59 | 5.67 | 5.66 | 5.87 | 5.94 | 5.59 | 5.40 | 5.36 | 5.26 | 5.36 | 5.61 | 5.57 |
| 1993 | 5.58 | 5.56 | 5.65 | 5.73 | 5.81 | 5.90 | 6.56 | 6.56 | 6.21 | 6.01 | 6.32 | 6.64 | 6.04 |
| 1994 | 6.72 | 6.71 | 6.73 | 6.57 | 6.77 | 6.72 | 5.92 | 5.58 | 5.47 | 5.30 | 5.36 | 5.41 | 6.11 |
| 1995 | 5.47 | 5.40 | 5.51 | 5.55 | 5.56 | 5.68 | 5.90 | 5.83 | 5.98 | 6.16 | 6.40 | 6.76 | 5.85 |
| 1996 | 6.78 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.43 | 7.69 | 7.41 | 7.62 | 7.82 | 7.79 | 6.94 | 6.90 | 6.91 | 7.27 |
| 1997 | 7.13 | 7.38 | 7.97 | 8.23 | 8.40 | 8.16 | 7.52 | 7.25 | 6.72 | 6.49 | 6.86 | 6.72 | 7.40 |
| 1998 | 6.69 | 6.57 | 6.40 | 6.26 | 6.26 | 6.16 | 6.14 | 5.43 | 5.25 | 5.18 | 5.39 | 5.37 | 5.93 |
| 1999 | 5.32 | 4.80 | 4.61 | 4.63 | 4.50 | 4.44 | 4.19 | 4.39 | 4.57 | 4.48 | 4.45 | 4.43 | 4.57 |
| 2000 | 4.62 | 4.79 | 4.91 | 5.00 | 5.19 | 4.93 | 4.53 | 4.45 | 4.59 | 4.45 | 4.55 | 4.78 | 4.73 |
| 2001 | 4.68 | 4.46 | 4.39 | 4.22 | 4.33 | 4.46 | 4.79 | 4.85 | 4.53 | 4.09 | 4.16 | 4.20 | 4.43 |
| 2002 | 4.22 | 4.22 | 4.38 | 4.47 | 4.64 | 4.88 | 5.35 | 5.53 | 5.39 | 5.20 | 5.46 | 5.46 | 4.93 |
| 2003 | 5.51 | 5.55 | 5.59 | 5.82 | 6.07 | 6.09 | 5.82 | 5.68 | 6.06 | 6.60 | 7.05 | 7.17 | 6.08 |
| 2004 | 7.35 | 8.28 | 9.28 | 9.62 | 9.56 | 9.08 | 8.46 | 6.83 | 5.84 | 5.56 | 5.36 | 5.45 | 7.56 |
| 2005 | 5.57 | 5.42 | 5.95 | 6.03 | 6.20 | 6.58 | 6.84 | 6.15 | 5.77 | 5.67 | 5.62 | 5.77 | 5.96 |
| 2006 | 5.88 | 5.67 | 5.57 | 5.52 | 5.68 | 5.61 | 5.61 | 5.23 | 5.24 | 5.52 | 6.07 | 6.18 | 5.65 |
| 2007 | 6.38 | 6.87 | 6.95 | 6.88 | 7.13 | 7.51 | 7.56 | 7.72 | 8.18 | 8.36 | 9.41 | 10.00 | 7.75 |
| 2008 | 9.96 | 11.70 | 11.50 | 12.00 | 12.10 | 13.20 | 13.30 | 12.80 | 10.70 | 9.94 | 9.38 | 9.24 | 11.32 |
| 2009 | 9.97 | 9.55 | 9.12 | 9.79 | 10.70 | 11.40 | 10.80 | 10.80 | 9.75 | 9.44 | 9.53 | 9.80 | 10.05 |
| 2010 | 9.79 | 9.41 | 9.39 | 9.47 | 9.41 | 9.45 | 9.79 | 10.10 | 9.98 | 10.20 | 11.10 | 11.60 | 9.97 |
| 2011 | 11.60 | 12.70 | 12.70 | 13.10 | 13.20 | 13.20 | 13.20 | 13.40 | 12.20 | 11.80 | 11.70 | 11.50 | 12.53 |
| 2012 | 11.90 | 12.20 | 13.00 | 13.80 | 14.00 | 13.90 | 15.40 | 16.20 | 14.30 | 14.20 | 14.30 | 14.30 | 13.96 |
| 2013 | 14.30 | 14.60 | 14.60 | 14.40 | 14.90 | 15.10 | 15.30 | 14.10 | 13.30 | 12.50 | 12.70 | 13.00 | 14.07 |
| 2014 | 12.90 | 13.20 | 13.70 | 14.30 | 14.40 | 14.30 | 13.10 | 12.40 | 10.90 | 9.97 | 10.20 | 10.30 | 12.47 |
| 2015 | 10.30 | 9.91 | 9.85 | 9.69 | 9.58 | 9.58 | 9.95 | 9.71 | 9.05 | 8.81 | 8.68 | 8.76 | 9.49 |
| 2016 | 8.71 | 8.51 | 8.56 | 9.04 | 9.76 | 10.20 | 10.20 | 9.93 | 9.43 | 9.30 | 9.46 | 9.64 | 9.40 |
| 2017 | 9.71 | 9.86 | 9.69 | 9.32 | 9.26 | 9.10 | 9.42 | 9.24 | 9.35 | 9.18 | 9.22 | 9.30 | 9.39 |
| 2018 | 9.30 | 9.49 | 9.81 |
As noted below in the seasonals(averaging prices over a 20 year period and graphing them with time), most of the price weakness in corn and beans takes place in June and July.
In many years, the month of August features some price strength.......as much of the weather premium has come out and much of the crop size is known. Even great weather, sometimes has a hard time inspiring additional aggressive selling that pushes prices to new lows.
However, this August has featured great weather and a record crop and has pushed us back near the lows.
At the moment, excessive rains in the forecast are lending support ahead of the long weekend.
This was often described as "frost risk premium" ahead of a potential early freeze.......not much need for that this year with the crop so advanced and weather pattern so warm. However, we have never had a bounce at this time of year from excessive rains.............because they are so rare in early September.
Beans have a pretty strong, brief spike down in late Sept, headed into early harvest that can often features new lows. Corn sometimes too but it often does not take out the Summer lows.
