Sold one at 6954.00 risking yesterday's close.
I bit of a hunch really. I was noticing gold underperforming silver in this metals bull mkt. Then looking at the S&P grinding higher it strikes me as underperforming gold. Stocks look tired. Also today's range is larger on the downside which might indicate acceleration to the downside.
This goes against my thesis that stocks should be ok for the coming 6-12 months with Trump attempting to take over the Fed and implement radically low interest rates.
Thanks very much, joj!
There is nobody that understands the current elevated risks more than you, the biggest one is probably the release of a decision by the Supreme Court related to Donald Trumps illegal, ruinous tariffs.
When that decision comes out, there will certainly be some stock market fireworks.
I agree a lot with your thinking with this position but I have a bearish bias, while at the same time, appreciating that the money flows that keep the market going up can keep coming longer than anybody expects.
Previous threads:
the stock markets, now short ...
21 responses |
Started by kris - Jan. 7, 2026, 9:10 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/117057/
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This was the last post from kris at that thread.
By kris - Jan. 14, 2026, 2:26 p.m.
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This was one of my last posts:
Re: Re: Re: the stock markets, now short ...
By metmike - Jan. 11, 2026, 6:31 p.m.
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The rounded top formation is still valid but that's never how parabolic moves end(this one has been losing steam).
Took my loss overnight at 6991.
Thanks for sharing with us, joj!
I'm only using current pattern recognition with the analysis/chart below.
Each situation is different and although developing patterns often evolve into outcomes that increase the predictability of the future price, I'm thinking that the resolution of this current chart is NOT going to match the one at the bottom that a rounding top predicts.
The current pattern is only an indication of the stock market losing steam/momentum because of the flattening slope of the uptrend.
The previous trend was parabolic at times, so that in itself is not especially bearish necessarily but it clearly does tell us some things.
1. Traders are no longer as interested in buying at the market, regardless of the price as they have been in much of recent times.
2. Upside break outs to new highs often provide buy signals to trading programs which helps to provide positive reinforcement to the upside break out, even when the old highs can be tested.
3. Recent new highs are by a weaker and weaker margin(flattening slope) and are unable to attract upside breakout money flows and follow thru.
4. The overall trend is still clearly up, with bulls STILL stepping in to buy the small corrections(bull flags/waves) but make no mistake that the upside momentum is petering out.
5. Donald Trump is the rich and powerful person's president and focus's much of his agenda on things that make the stock market go higher. He has bragged about how he caused the stock market to go higher dozens of times. It's huge for him. That has greatly assisted in the psychology/mentality that gave the bulls their buying incentive when the stock market was flying higher and making new highs by wide margins.
6. However, this rounding top formation and stock market losing steam is a clear indication that the rich people, with the rich people's Ponzi Scheme are LOSING CONFIDENCE in their biggest advocate, Donald Trump's ability to lead. Too much chaos, too many counterproductive, unhinged decisions that are backfiring AGAINST the bullish and very strong forces that still underpin the stock market. For instance, the market knows that Donald Trump is still the most powerful man in the world and is still obsessed with doing things to make the stock market go higher at any cost.
7. The market is extremely vulnerable because of the unpredictability of Donald Trump. One example is the upcoming ruling by the Supreme Court on his ruinous tariffs. That upcoming decision, by itself could be the biggest factor causing the bulls to avoid buying fresh upside break outs. When that decision comes out, its impossible to NOT imagine the stock market having an extreme reaction that day and possibly longer.
Ruling that his tariffs are illegal, which they crystal clearly are because he imposes them, often with no rhyme or reason and for NON economic(political) criteria that he suddenly manufactures over and over is indisputable evidence of his illegal use of tariffs. But the Supreme court has a majority of conservatives and they must know what the consequences will be if they shoot down Trump's illegal tariffs.
8. That was just the biggest short term risk. There are numerous others that include the growing likelihood that Donald Trump will not finish his 2nd term. This is not me stating what I want to happen, it's entirely based on the objective, authentic factors that are important to the price of the stock market
9. Just to reiterate. The stock market trend is STILL higher and this loss in momentum could be temporary. For instance, if the Supreme Court could rule that Donald Trump is justified in imposing illegal tariffs and the market could explode higher and never look back.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
https://www.ebc.com/forex/rounding-top-pattern-explained-how-to-spot-market-reversals
One could take another shot at a short ES at this level :
In my humble opinion, all major indexes will close ATH Friday