KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, August 30, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1228K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1301.3K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 239.8K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 210K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -2K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1727000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -2K)
8:30 AM ET. July Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.4%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.2%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +2.0%; previous +1.9%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2435B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +48B)
2:30 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, August 31, 2018
9:45 AM ET. August ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 63.0; previous 65.5)
10:00 AM ET. August University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 95.2; previous 97.9)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 87.3)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.9%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.4%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 114.4)
Monday, September 3, 2018
N/A U.S. Labor Day. Financial markets closed
N/A Marianas: Labour Day
Tuesday, September 4, 2018
9:45 AM ET. August US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 55.3)
10:00 AM ET. July Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (previous -1.1%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. September IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 58.0)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 56.8)
10:00 AM ET. August ISM Manufacturing Report on Business
Manufacturing PMI (previous 58.1)
Prices Idx (previous 73.2)
Employment Idx (previous 56.5)
Inventories (previous 53.3)
New Orders Idx (previous 60.2)
Production Idx (previous 58.5)
11:00 AM ET. August Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 52.7)
4:00 PM ET. August Domestic Auto Industry Sales
Auto Sales Annualized (previous 16.77M)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. With September trading in uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7465.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 7674.50. Second resistance isunknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7465.76. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7338.29.
The September S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this summer's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2860.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 2917.00. Second resistance is is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2878.45. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2860.47.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower price are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-11 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 146-11 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 145-29. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 146-11. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-11. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 143-27.
September T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.007 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 121.030 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 120.240. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.007. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 119.125.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: OctoberNymex crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, June's high crossing at 71.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.14 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 70.01. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 71.29. First support is August's low crossing at 63.89. Second support is June's low crossing at 62.60.
October heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 229.92 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 215.35 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above May's high crossing at 229.92 or below July's low crossing at 205.41 are needed to confirm a breakout of this trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 226.08. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.92. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 215.35. Second support is August's low crossing at 208.05.
October unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 204.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 193.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the late-July high crossing at 201.57. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 204.04. First support is August's low crossing at 186.62. Second support is July's low crossing at 185.93.
October Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish signaling that a low is in or near. If October extends the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 2.751 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.918 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.918. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 2.982. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 2.830. Second support is August's low crossing at 2.751.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the late-July low crossing at 93.87 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.42 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September resumes this year's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 96.87. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 25% retracement level of the January-August-rally crossing at 94.52. Second support is the late-July low crossing at 93.87.
The September Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If September extends the rally off August's low, the late-July high crossing at 117.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.62 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September renews this summer's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78 is the next downside target. First resistance is the late-July high crossing at 117.90. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 118.52. First support is August's low crossing at 113.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78.
The September British Pound was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3070 would signal that the short-term trend has turned sideways to higher while at the same time opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2600 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3070. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3240. First support is August's low crossing at 1.2678. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2600.
The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0383 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0127 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.0336. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 1.0383. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0127. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.0042.
The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, June's high crossing at 77.94 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.35 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 77.63. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 77.94. First support is August's low crossing at 75.93. Second support is July's low crossing at 75.31.
The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 0.8943 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 0.9172 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 0.9126. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 0.9172. First support is August's low crossing at 0.8943. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.8867.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was lower in overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1228.20 is the next upside target. If October resumes the decline off April's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1220.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1228.20. First support is August's low crossing at 1162.70. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10.
September silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.924 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.924. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.470. First support is August's low crossing at 14.315. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.
September copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 278.71 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off the late-July high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 278.71. Second resistance is the July 25th reaction high crossing at 286.70. First support is August's low crossing at 255.20. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off the late-July high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 3.50 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.72 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.82 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.89 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.55 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.50 1/4.
December wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.59 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 5.07 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.59 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.82 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.07. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.90.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 21 1/2-cents at 5.49 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.74 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 5.11 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.57. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.74 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.11 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.97.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.14 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 5.71 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.31 3/4. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 6.56. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.71 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.42 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were higher overnight as they consolidate some of this month's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off the late-July high, July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.75 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.15. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 9.42 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 8.32. Second support is July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4.
December soybean meal was slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off the late-July high, the June 2017 low crossing at 301.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 328.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 317.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 325.00. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 303.80. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 301.20.
December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the July-August trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the late-July's high crossing at 29.39 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If December resumes this summer's decline, July's low crossing at 29.78 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.87. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 29.39. First support is the reaction low crossing at 28.05. Second support is July's low crossing at 29.78.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $0.45 at $51.55.
October hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends last week's decline, August's low crossing at 47.82 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 54.42 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 59.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 61.65. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 50.18. Second support is August's low crossing at 47.82.
October cattle closed up $0.25 at 108.70.
October cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 109.65 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 105.48 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 112.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33. First support is Monday's low crossing at 106.20. Second support is July's low crossing at 105.48.
October Feeder cattle closed down $0.02 at $149.40.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 152.35 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 144.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 152.35. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 153.45. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 146.35. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 145.42.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 9.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
September cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.79 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 25.94 is the next upside target.
October sugar closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.03 is the next upside target. If October renews the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 9.83 is the next downside target.
October cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 86.04 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 78.35 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!