UAH v6.1 Global Temperature Update for November, 2025
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Started by metmike - Dec. 2, 2025, 9 p.m.

I bumped this up to the trading forum because of the expanded discussion.

UAH v6.1 Global Temperature Update for November, 2025: +0.43 deg. C

 December 2nd, 2025 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

https://www.drroyspencer.com/2025/12/uah-v6-1-global-temperature-update-for-november-2025-0-43-deg-c/

Comments
By metmike - Dec. 2, 2025, 9:26 p.m.
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The current La Nina continues to TEMPORARILY cool global temperatures with it's cooler, tropical Pacific water temperatures. 

The forecast is for this fairly weak La Nina to start warming soon, evolving to neutral conditions by next Spring, continuing towards weak El Nino as the year goes on.

La Nina's usually have an adverse impact on our growing seasons(hot/dry) El Nino's are associated with wetter growing seasons and favorable weather, so this is a positive outlook for the Cornbelt next year. The more El Nino-ish/ less La Nina-ish, the better the analogs are. 

ENSO: Recent Evolution,
Current Status and Prediction

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf


By metmike - Dec. 3, 2025, 12:05 a.m.
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Here are the ENSO neutral analogs for next year.


ENSO Neutral: Trend Adjusted Precipitation

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/prcp-ta/clickmap.prcp.ta.neutral.html

Indiana: ABOVE average rains with green bars for next Summer.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Illinois: Average rain


Iowa:  ABOVE average rain


Ohio: Near equal odds

By metmike - Dec. 3, 2025, 12:18 a.m.
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Here's another site with some analogs for ENSO neutral. You can adjust the settings to whatever ENSO state and month you want to look at. This is June and July below:


https://hprcc.unl.edu/agroclimate/cpv.php


Long range forecasting skill is not great and even lower for neutral events.