The trade is certain that U.S. corn yield will decline from the September levels on Friday, but that's not the case with soybeans (some see yield rising). Analysts peg the U.S. corn crop up 13.5% on the 5yr production average, but the soy crop is seen 0.7% below.
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Very wide estimate ranges for U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks on Friday, driven by varying ideas of both production and demand. Just looking at the average trade guesses (i.e. they are very similar to Sept) doesn't tell the whole story.
Conab updated Brazilian S&D on Thursday - negligible changes to soy and corn. USDA is updating on Friday. Biggest diffs w/ Conab are on corn. FYI, USDA's last estimates (mmt): 24/25 corn - 135 24/25 beans - 169 25/26 corn - 131 25/26 beans - 175
South America weather matters big now.
I just checked the long range forecast for the next 46 days from the European model Weeklies. Holy Cow!!!
This model has a drought in Argentina and S. Brazil. Maybe this is part of why the beans shot higher a few weeks ago?
This forecast has most of the Argentina crop at high risk of severe drought and around 20-25% of the Brazil crop in the south. Beans have clearly made MAJOR lows but this could really launch prices higher.
The map below is CUMULATIVE rain anomalies or the next 46 days.
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/default.aspx?id=BR
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Brazil/Municipality/Brazil_Soybean.png
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/default.aspx?id=AR
Recent rains in South America. It's been dry in Brazil but their rainy season(monsoon) usually kicks in right around now. Argentina looks ok from what I can tell.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.30day.figb.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.90day.figb.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.180day.figb.gif
The USDA WASDY report today at 11 central time
USDA Flash sales reports from during the shutdown will be released at the same time. This is what the market will be watching for Chinese business.
A lot of info in a short time, Extra volatility
opinion: someone has been buying beans, will this be a buy the roomer sell the fact. Or do we go higher???
nov beans go off the board yesterday jan beans have some carry. That could leave a gap on the continuous chart which could leave an island reversal on the chart.
Thanks, cutworm!
Clearly bearish compared to expectations!!!!
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US corn and soybean yields come down from September, corn by less than expected.
U.S. corn stocks are slightly higher than in Sept (smaller crop, bigger exports, bigger carry-in). Beans are slightly smaller - smaller crop, smaller exports, smaller carry-in).
USDA increased 24/25 Brazil and Argentina soybean production and 24/25 Brazil corn production.
