I don't trade much anymore but I have owned some gold as financial disaster insurance since the 1990s. My hope was (is) to pass them along to my children when I'm gone. Similarly with fire insurance on your home. You don't want to use it, but you sleep better knowing you have it.
There are always the exceptions to the rule. If someone offers me more for my fire insurance policy than the value of the home, well that's what I call "stupid valuations".
Back in the late 70s silver was a necessary metal for developing film. As you may recall silver rallied from $5/oz to $50/oz in the Hunt brothers bull market also fueled by pretty severe inflation. The story I recall was a film developer looked at his silver inventory and discovered that it was worth 3 times the value of his business. He unloaded at the top, not because he thought "this is the top". He sold because people were offering him "stupid valuations".
So what gold price would I consider to be "stupid valuations"? That is a difficult question for me to answer. I have numbers in my head like 10,000 - 15,000 per oz, but it is based on nothing. I cannot even be sure of why gold is this strong (not that it matters). I fear that this move is a canary in the coal mine that is a prelude to the world being out of whack. Scary.
Lower interest rates (potentially inflationary) are often cited as a bullish fundamental for gold. When Powell's term expires on May 15th, 2026, Trump will install a loyalist who commits to aggressively lowering interest rates sharply. (like 150 basis points from current levels). MORE VODKA in the punch bowl anyone? Perhaps that will be a sell the news event at much higher prices than here.
Gold is up 50% this year. If it accelerates, maybe 100% next year? Scary!
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Shorter term, CNBC is FINALLY covering the gold market with some news stories. Maybe a short term top is imminent?
Thanks for sharing this, joj!
Those are some of the most profound thoughts on gold/silver ever!
Certainly worth our "Post of the Week"
Nothing special for earning that except the moderators appreciation and recognition that your post really was profound in his/my view.
Previous thread:
Gold adjusted for Inflation
47 responses |
Started by joj - April 24, 2025, 7:18 a.m
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/111451/
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Last post from that thread that is still valid for the first response to the new thread.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Gold adjusted for Inflation/silver
By metmike - Oct. 7, 2025, 2:10 a.m.
Incredible parabolic/exponential move up! Steepening uptrend slope. 3-4 times higher price compared to a decade ago.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold
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Same thing with silver! WOW!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/silver
Gold today is soaring higher!
Historic day!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold
1.1 day
2. 1 year
Top is in for gold. At least short term???
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold
Silver hit new all time high before reversing lower:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/silver
This particular trading strategy would have been very profitable in gold/silver today. I have never traded the metals.
By metmike - Oct. 9, 2025, 11:11 a.m.
Has anybody else read this book?
I got it when it first came out almost 3 decades ago and the stock market at this moment reminds me of one of the trading signals that Linda Raschke suggested using.
When a market breaks out to a new high but then trades BELOW that previous high with no follow thru because the buying has been exhausted, SELL THE MARKET and put a buy stop above the new record high set earlier that day.
I've watched the markets and seen that trade work many times.
The nicest thing about it is the well defined, low risk and potentially very high rewards to this trade. I don't trade stocks but selling right now with a stop above the highs earlier today would be the position outlined above from Linda!
I am not recommending that, just having fun with the analysis of this market as it trades with unprecedented craziness.
That reversal and short term high in gold lasted for..........1 day
We're back above 4000 and have NEGATED part of the reversal down, top formation from yesterday.
This is a market that still has more buyers that will still buy at these lofty levels.
However, this could also be a topping formation too. Only time will tell.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold
How about that silver. WOW!
Today's high COULD HAVE been a double top, however like the gold market, we apparently still have traders that will buy aggressively at the market even at this lofty prices.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/silver
I have that book on my bookshelf. Lots of other trade ideas. Been 25+ years... I'll have to give it another read soon.
Thanks, joj!
I think the trading environment has changed a great deal over the past 3 decades since that wonderful book came out but there are still some great trading ideas. Even more so, trading rules about risk management and so on that will always be valid.
Here's a few of them:
https://sobrief.com/books/street-smarts
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As a meteorologist trader that exclusively uses the impact of weather on certain markets(not as active anymore), my particular method trumps everything else but there is so much to learn about markets from this book. Even a non trader that is just interested in learning about the markets will get more than their money's worth in the form of authentic knowledge that can be applied for the rest of their lives and used as a good source to reach discernment.
Gold and Silver off to very strong starts to the trading week!