Not saying this is "THE" top [we'll find out in due course] but I think we have a September/October high in place.
I have attached a chart with two major points of interest for tomorrow 09/25/2025 , let's just say I will be looking into the short side ....
Thanks, Kris!
I posted similar thoughts earlier. Nice chart.
More on Thursday. Keep us posted with your ideas.
By metmike - Sept. 24, 2025, 11:21 a.m.
Potential reversal lower on the weekly chart if we close below the red line.
We can disregard the above chart since the overnight broke yesterday's low, crash cycle may be underway ... ?
Jobs report later this morning, going to be a fun day !
Thanks, Kris
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
1. 1 week
2. 1 month
3. 1 year
4. 10 years
Interestingly, the stock market has been trading bad economic news as bullish and good economic news as bearish!
By metmike - Sept. 25, 2025, 5:51 p.m.
Published
Sep 25, 2025 at 08:58 AM ED
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-gets-surprise-boost-on-economy-10740222
The Ponzi Scheme for wealthy people hold's on for the umpteenth time!
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
we may have a top in today ... !
Thanks very much, kris!
We can't keep going higher forever!
The rich people's Ponzi Scheme and self fulfilling prophesy greatly exceeding intrinsic valuations and making records highs on bad economic news, then more record highs on more economic news.......completely detached from anything but the big money traders feeding it and giving each other positive feedback(self fulfilling prophesy) will eventually have to reckon with the world outside of their money.
Parabolic/exponential moves like this never last and are impossible to predict the top. but this could be a buying exhaustion/top, considering the bad news is getting SO bad.
After markets like this top, the extraordinarily over leveraged and unbalanced long positions that fed it on the way up............are high octane fuel for the spike lower collapse.
1. 1 week
2. 1 year
3. 10 years-Parabolic/exponential move higher. Not sustainable
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
Previous post on the other thread. We can continue the discussion here and appreciate your contributions, kris!
By metmike - Oct. 1, 2025, 3:58 p.m.
Fresh all time highs again today for the wealthy people's Ponzi scheme!
1. News of an economic slow down and weak economy and lost jobs = record highs
2. News of excessive inflation = record highs
3. News of additional ruinous tariffs with no rhyme or reason in setting them =record highs.
4. News of a government shutdown = record highs
5. Increasingly unhinged, lunatic rants from a pathologically thinking and acting president that completely makes up and imagines the world he describes = record highs
6. Record highs in the stock market =Trump's positive reinforcement message that the wealthy people want him to keep doing exactly what he's doing and in fact, double and triple down on it.
++++++++++++++++
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
1. 1 month. New highs today
2. 10 years. Parabolic/exponential move higher with an increasingly steep uptrend slope line. Completely detached from intrinsic valuations. Money flows are dumping in from rich people based on the principle of a "self fulfilling prophesy".
https://philonotes.com/2024/12/robert-k-mertons-theory-of-the-self-fulfilling-prophecy
++++++++++++++=
+++++
The Stock Market Is Disconnected From Reality.
+++++++++++
Re: Re: Re: Re: : Micro Nasdaq
By metmike - Oct. 2, 2025, 11:41 a.m.
A close below any of these red lines would be especially bad with today's reversal lower from record highs! It would set us up for a GAP LOWER open on Sunday Night which would be a powerful top signature!
Today may be a high for a while, textbook performance on the part of the markets ....
Thanks, kris!
Keep us posted. Almost everything tells us this market should have topped previously and it should have topped again on Friday. We'll see if the market FINALLY runs out of huge traders that will buy no matter what.
No top yet. Buyers stepped in again before we even tested any sort of support.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
Ascending wedge/triangle formation now. This is a continuation pattern verified when we break the top line, which would be new all time highs.
Failing here would obviously be a double top.
I'm not predicting that or trading this market, just having fun analyzing price charts for this mind boggling market that is completely dominated by the self fulfilling prophesy of wealthy traders in a realm that trades what it wants to trade and ignores numerous realities that mattered in the past..........and may have to eventually reconcile with when the disparities between intrinsic valuations and speculative valuations become too great to maintain.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
+++++++++++++++++++++
1pm CDT:
Final answer: the tops are in ..... ???!!!
Thanks, kris!
Keep us posted. Here's some lines of support and resistance to consider.
I have nothing to add.
1. 1 month
2. 10 years
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
I would not want to be short The NASDAQ . There is absolutely nothing on a daily chart to indicate any type of pull back. It is above the 20 day average, above rising trend line,
as for the economy, what is wrong with these numbers?
United States Stock Market Index - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News | Trading Economics
| Related | Last | Previous | Unit | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States Inflation Rate | 2.90 | 2.70 | percent | Aug 2025 |
| United States Fed Funds Interest Rate | 4.25 | 4.50 | percent | Sep 2025 |
| United States Unemployment Rate | 4.30 | 4.20 | percent | Aug 2025 |
Thanks, cutworm!
Looks like there are enough people that don't want to be short, like you stated to help minimize the selling pressure needed to offset the buying.........so we are unable to go lower in spite of top formation/momentum loss signals.
The ascending wedge/triangle chart formation mentioned earlier in the week is still valid. It can go 1 of 2 ways.
1. Prices breaking the top and confirmation of this continuation of the trend pattern formation.
2. Breaking the bottom decisively. Top is in, POSSIBLY if we close below 6600.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
OK, NOW it looks like a potential top!!!!
We had a fake upside break out of the ascending wedge/triangle earlier today BUT NO FOLLOW THRU after the new all time highs and have reversed lower below that uptrend of the wedge/triangle.
The DOWNSIDE break out is confirmed with a solid close below 6600........and it could get ugly after that.
However, this energizer bunny market may still have more rich people that margin out/leverage even more of their speculative money to keep their self fulfilling prophesy going. That's the only thing that has been keeping it from collapsing.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
Has anybody else read this book?
I got it when it first came out almost 3 decades ago and the stock market at this moment reminds me of one of the trading signals that Linda Raschke suggested using.
When a market breaks out to a new high but then trades BELOW that previous high with no follow thru because the buying has been exhausted, SELL THE MARKET and put a buy stop above the new record high set earlier that day.
I've watched the markets and seen that trade work many times.
The nicest thing about it is the well defined, low risk and potentially very high rewards to this trade. I don't trade stocks but selling right now with a stop above the highs earlier today would be the position outlined above from Linda!
I am not recommending that, just having fun with the analysis of this market as it trades with unprecedented craziness.
On further analysis, we could be holding the uptrend line based on the market generating some buying at that support level.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
The above chart shows an area of interest (to me) slightly above today's high.
The DJI is cooked ...
The DJT is cooked ...
The NQ is usually the last one to put in a top ...
Markets like round numbers ....
An NQ high in the 25200 area will not surprise me ...
Trade safe everyone !!!
Thanks very much, Kris!
Based on most similar situations in the past, I would sure think the stock market is cooked.
I don't trade this particular market like you but don't ever remember the continuing move up to record highs on bad news and more bad news about the economy and so much chaos.
Gold making insane new highs actually makes more sense to me.
I don't trade gold either (mainly grains and ng/ho) but following it, silver and the stock market with chart analysis is fun and challenging............and doesn't cost any money!
The way i trade a
1 large outside day that closes lower,
2especially if it gaped higher then closed lower,
3 is a new high or at resistance
in a bull market
is to put a sell stop1 tick below the low of the day, stoploss if filled at 1 tick above the high
this has worked several times for me but sometimes it does not get filled.
this is NOT a trade recommendation
cutworm,
This sounds like a smart method to trade. Thanks for sharing it.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
Global stocks pummeled on Trump China tariff threat
Reversal comes after equity indices hit a series of new records in recent weeks
https://www.ft.com/content/b9ae2417-2e89-4b0a-bad5-d94f4e980ecc
Even today's high in the NQ will hold for a while, today is just the start ...
Thanks, kris!
A gap lower to start next week would look especially ominous as it would be a downside break away gap after a powerful reversal down the previous day.
A gap at that spot in time would be a daily, weekly and monthly(Oct) gap lower.
It's still possible for us to hold here, for instance if Trump announces a deal with China that undoes all his damage. Or if Zelensky announces an agreement with Putin on ending the war.........but those items seem unlikely. '
I would be more concerned that Trump could announce something else to make it WORSE for the stock market.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
Three weeks of gains wiped out in a single day, October is going to be a bad month for the financials, long trades in this new environment would not last long imho because this is a rare paradigm shift.
Trade well my friends !
Thanks kris!
Great call the past 2+ weeks!
The last couple of hours after the main close were about as bad as possible.
It will take a miracle to recover from this next week!
1. 1 week. WOW! Collapse this morning, immediately after more bad news on tariffs as this was FINALLY the bad news straw that broke the camels back. However, the market was struggling and vulnerable for the last 2 weeks(with numerous technical red flags) as kris has been recognizing with his posts.
2. 1 month: After barely making new highs yesterday with the false upside break out, generating a Linda Raschke sell signal when the market traded below the old highs (and a buy stop above the new fresh highs-that never got hit so that short trade would have a massive profit right now).
3. 1 year: Steep up channel decisively broken. Previous record high from early this year is the first red line. 2nd one is the spike low from Trump's tariffs at the start of April.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
To your point Mike : "The last couple of hours after the main close were about as bad as possible"
In the last 15 minutes of trading we dropped roughly 50 points = total capitulation !
Well I was getting ready to post asking for thoughts on tonight's open...and then I remembered we are closed tomorrow! Oh well. I check back in tomorrow evening. ;)
Thanks, buck!
Actually we still have electronic trading.
I was going to mention over the weekend that that spike down from Trump's tariffs announcement on Friday could take a similar path to his initial announcement on April 2nd, so called "Liberation Day".
That was an extreme spike low followed by a surge to more and more new highs. The strong move up early tonight is surprising but maybe there is news I don't know about since I've been working outside all day.
I think kris is right though about this market being toast.
Ask me about grains and natural gas during a weather market and my thoughts about market direction should be considered more as a trader. Regardless, the stock market and metals are fascinating right now.
Well I guess I am really messed up! I was just thinking gov holiday and markets would be closed. I guess I should pay a little more attention!
This is why the stock indices are sharply up:
Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump • 
Truth Social
Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!! President DJT
Thanks very much, Larry!
That would explain it alright.
More evidence that one of Donald Trump's key indicators is the rich people's Ponzi Scheme (stock market).
