Re: Re: Re: Re: USDA September 12, 2025/Grains
By metmike - Sept. 23, 2025, 5:28 p.m.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Record low for Evansville today in 1995.
https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/evansville/record-low-by-day
| September 23 | 36 | 1995 |
I remember this record low of 36 degrees, 30 years ago. It was a Saturday but I was margined out, long with a position in November Soybeans!!!
This was before the internet. Beans in this area were planted late and were still green. Same for much of IL, which is the state that harvests the most beans. A freeze would definitely hurt them.
I was monitoring temps with my own private weather service using a satellite dish on our roof, though that was pretty tough before the internet.
After seeing the above freezing lows around the area, my initial thought was........OH, OH! No freeze this weekend with early harvest in progress means a sharply lower open on Monday and my long position suffering a big loss!!!
Then I went outside to water our garden(it had been extremely dry) and no water came out.
What the heck? Turns out that the water in the hose that was ON THE GROUND was completely frozen.
Official thermometers are 6 feet above the ground. So that morning, we had an extreme inversion(typical of nights with clear skies, no wind and dry air and optimal radiation cooling at the surface) with temps on the ground, being 10 degrees colder than the NWS thermometers just 6 feet higher.
Same thing on Sunday morning. That intense, radiation freeze took away around 100 million bushels of production based on estimates.
So the beans opened HIGHER on Monday morning at 9:30 am. Before Project A(overnight trading).....an opportunity to cash in then, before harvest pressure pushed prices lower the rest of the month/early October.
cutworm, mcfarm, Do you guys remember this?
Freeze dates in the Midwest
by metmike - Aug. 22, 2023, 9:26 p.m
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/98473/
+++++++++++
This discusses the Labor Day Freeze of 1974. I know that our older producers must remember that one!!!!
I was just out of high school and starting classes as a freshman at University of Detroit and had never heard about commodity/futures prices. Which didn't happen until moving to Evansville IN in September 1982 to be chief meteorologist for WEHT-TV.
Then ending up trading commodities very successfully, starting in January 1992, starting with a $2,000 account with IRA Epstein. The only place that would take less than $5,000 but 2K was all the money we had saved.
This article appeared in the NYT BEFORE the freeze damage on Sept. 23/24 1995(mainly in IL/IN then). I bought beans near the close on Friday, Sept. 22, anticipating the freezes in the Central/Eastern Cornbelt.
The article was about less damage in the UPPER MIDWEST, previous to Sept. 23.
+++++++++++++++++
Earlier in the week, when the freeze potential first showed up on the maps, soybeans hit limit up(30c back then)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
metmike: After the freeze damage, many of the immature beans, instead of leaves gradually going from green to yellow with natural maturity in sync with late pod filling, TURNED BLACK because of premature DEATH. Ending the pod filling!
Estimated losses were from 100-200 million bushels in IL/IN.
+++++++++++++++
cs-D WEEKLY
OUTLOOK
Cooperative
Exlension
Service
https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/assets/marketing/weekly/1995/1995-09-25.pdf
SEPTEMBER 25. 1995
SOYBEANS: HARVEST PRESSURE VERSUS SMALLER CROP EXPECTATIONS
The USDA will provide an updated estimate of the size of the 1995 crop on October 1 1 .
That report will reflect conditions as of the last week of September and should capture
information about seed size and reflect early yield results. That report, however, may not
fully reflect the effect ol lreeze damage. Potential yield of damaged crops will be nearly
impossible to judge.
The size of the soybean crop is especially critical this year. A smaller estimate could
change the supply/demand balance from one of surplus to one requiring some modost
rationing ofuse. That is, based on the cunent crop estimate soybean crush and exports
could remain at the record level of this past year without reducing year ending stocks
belor 275 million bushels. On the other hand, a 2-bushel reduction in the average yield
would reduce ending stocks below 200 million bushels, even with a 50 million bushel
reduc{ion in use as projected by the USDA.
https://sheboygan.extension.wisc.edu/files/2010/10/Soybean-Response-to-Freeze-Damage.pdf
Table 1. Soybean Response to Freeze Damage
Growth Stage Yield Reduction
R4 – Full Pod 70%-80%
R5 – Beginning Seed 50%-70%
R6 – Full Seed 15%-30%
R7 – Beginning Maturity 0%-5%
R8 – Full Maturity 0%
Source: Saliba et. At. Kansas State University, 1982
Specific damage characteristics will depend on stage of development
https://extension.sdstate.edu/sites/default/files/2020-03/S-0004-50-Soybean.pdf
+++++++++++++++++
Department of Agronomy Fall Freeze Damage in Summer Grain Crops
https://bookstore.ksre.ksu.edu/download/fall-freeze-damage-in-summer-grain-crops_MF2234
+++++++++++
https://fieldcropnews.com/2013/09/what-happens-to-soybeans-when-they-get-frosted/