Is coffee making a triple top or does it break higher?
Mike is it to dry in eastern Brazil?
Hi cutworm!
as soon as I get back home, we’ll find out!
great trading post!
Some extremely high prices for coffee. I'll do some research to report more.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee
1. 10 years:steepening uptrend. Record high prices early this year.
2. 1 year: Top in Feb 2025. Lower high April 2025. Low in July put in after Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazil coffee. Is this a flag pattern?? Breaking out to the upside above the downtrend? Still well below the highs from earlier this year.
3. 1 month
4. 1 week
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The source above no longer allows us to go out beyond 10 years for free.
This was a 50 year price chart from this past January, before they changed those terms:
Coffee all time highs! 1-31-25
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/109764/
Coffee has taken off like a rocket!!! WOW!!!
President Trump broke from his tariff letter format to tell the president of Brazil that he plans to put a 50% tariff on "any and all Brazilian products sent into the United States" starting on Aug. 1.
Trump posted the letter to social media Wednesday afternoon, his 22nd such letter this week. However, this letter departed markedly from the others Trump has posted. All of the other letters were similar, telling countries that the new tariffs were intended to rectify trade imbalances with the U.S.
The letter to Brazil, however, was about Brazilian politics. Trump wrote that the Brazilian tariffs are needed in part "to rectify the grave injustices of the current regime," and in particular what Trump called a "Witch Hunt" against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.
Trump has long praised Bolsonaro, and he continued to do so in his letter.
Trump wrote that he "knew and dealt with former President Jair Bolsonaro, and respected him greatly," and said the way the former leader has been treated in Brazil "is an international disgrace."
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The insanity of this is off the charts.
Trump is literally punishing US companies that buy coffee because THEY are the ones that pay the tariff.
US companies pass along their higher cost to US consumer so Trump's pathological thinking, that he is punishing the country of Brazil for not treating his far right friend well is, in reality punishing US companies and consumers that use coffee.
We don't grow coffee in the US because we don't have the climate to grow coffee, so this isn't going to cause coffee growers/production in Brazil to move to the United States.
It's just flat out violating Trump's own justification for imposing tariffs, which is already based on his complete lack of understanding of the principles of beneficial free trading between countries with different economies.
This is where they grow coffee:
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Brazil/Municipality/Brazil_Total_Coffee.png
Minas Gerais weather counts the most!
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https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coffee-production-by-region
The tropical areas that grow coffee in Brazil have seasonal monsoon climates/weather.
During this time of year at the end of their dry season(the end of their Winter) they've not received much rain since April.
Their wet season usually starts in October then really picks up in November. December/January are the wettest months, with nearly 12 inches/month!!! Then rains taper off in February and March.
https://en.climate-data.org/south-america/brazil/minas-gerais/uberaba-2878/#climate-graph
https://en.climate-data.org/south-america/brazil/minas-gerais-203/r/february-2/#monthly-weather-data
https://charts.equityclock.com/coffee-futures-kc-seasonal-chart
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.30day.figb.gif
30 day rains: There is usually no rain in coffee-land
90 day rains" Usually dry in coffee-land
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.90day.figb.gif
180 day rains Mostly dry thru that period but it was drier than average there earlier this year.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.180day.figb.gif
Brazil's coffee crop faces severe drought impact
Summarized by AI from the post below
FacebookFacebookFacebookFacebookFacebookFacebookFacebookFacebookFacebookFacebookFacebook
2 week total rains from the 18z GEFS run below"
2
2 week rain anomalies from the last 12z European Ensemble model.
The rainy season doesn't usually kick off until October!
46 day anomaly from the EE model:
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Here's a map of where coffee is grown to compare the forecast with. It's still September and the rainy season/monsoon is not expected to start for another month+ or so:
Without massive amounts of fossil fuel manufactured synthetic fertilizer, crop yields and world food production would drop close to 50%!
Anothersecret about fossil fuels: Haber Bosch process-fertilizers feeding the planet using natural gas-doubling food production/crop yields. September 2019
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/39215/
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https://www.helenacoffee.vn/farming-10-nutrition-fertilizer-for-coffee-plants/
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304423823005393
https://coffeebi.com/2025/09/07/coffee-market-update-and-innovations-shape-industry-on-sept-7-2025/
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https://ico.org/specialized-reports/
As at 3 September 2025
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https://www.precedenceresearch.com/coffee-market
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/13/coffee-and-tea-prices-ramp-up-due-to-tariffs.html
2 week rain anomalies in Brazil from the last 12z European Ensemble model. Signs of the first rain at bit early?
This was the 46 day rainfall anomaly forecast. 
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Here's what I think with regards to the weather there.
1. Ahead of widespread huge rain events, that will trigger early flowering, KC could see some heavy selling pressure. Ahead of big rain events, until the crop has flowered and the cherries set. There needs to be a couple of follow up rains after flowering to avoid the flowers being aborted.
2. Typically there is a sell the rumor, buy the fact bounce up AFTER the rains fall. If they are disappointing and there is no additional rains for awhile.......we can rally pretty hard.
3. If the forecast during this key developmental period in Oct-Dec features a long DRY period with no rain in the forecast, the market will consider it very bullish with reductions in the crop size/supply dropping if it gets bad enough.
4. See the actual crop area below to compare the rain forecasts to.
5. Seasonals are actually lower in Sept/Oct. Maybe from the rainy season beginning successfully and causing the selling mentioned above. November is a strong month historically for coffee prices. However, we are near record high pricing right now and extremely volatile. The usual factors that dominate coffee trade are way out of whack when prices are at historical highs.............so historical seasonals are not as reliable.
The overnight EE model rain anomaly for 2 weeks was drier but i seriously doubt that this is a big deal since the rainy season doesn't usually start until October in Coffeeland.
Its impossible to say when the market will start trading 2 week rain forecasts for Brazil coffee as a top price influencing factor. I will guess that it will be earlier than usual because of recent drought and near record high prices.
I should mention that Trump's political 50% tariff on Brazil coffee to punish Brazil for not treating his far right friend right (making the price of coffee for US consumers MUCH more expensive if its not lifted) is a looming risk to traders that might have the wrong position if news comes out from Trump, which is typical of his tariffs...... that he suddenly is changing the terms of this particular tariff.
With that being the case, I would have tight stops in or limit to small positions if you want to minimize your exposure to this elevated risk. Just know its for real! You can be dead right about everything, including all the fundamentals and weather but get your clock cleaned because of an unpredictable, impulsive Trump tariff announcement/decision.
Excellent posts, MetMike. Tremendous overview and current update.
Since I am long a put that expires tomorrow, I can personally GUARANTEE there will be no significant drop in futures to at least the open early Monday morning!
The path of least resistance is down, but coffee has yet to make the "BAD TRADE" and break down through support.
I will review my charts this weekend (do it every weekend) and decide if a short/put is warranted. Premiums are HIGH and will be especially so as the front option will have a month of time!
Trade well
Thanks much, tjc!
always great to get excellent thoughts from,our most active trader.
i forgot to post my agronomy articles that explain the flowering and cherry setting process for coffee, which requires timely rains and will add that when back on the computer, later today.
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https://perfectdailygrind.com/2021/08/why-do-coffee-plants-flower-what-does-it-mean-for-producers/
by Atlantica Coffee | Nov 29, 2023 | Coffee, Sustainability
https://www.atlanticacoffee.com/en/the-brazilian-coffee-cycle-from-flowering-to-harvesting/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CdScpRVYjI
December arabica coffee (KCZ25) today is up +9.65 (+2.58%), and November ICE robusta coffee (RMX25) is up +119 (+2.76%).
Coffee prices are sharply higher today, with arabica posting a 1-week high. Excessive dryness in Brazil's coffee-growing regions has sparked crop concerns ahead of the critical flowering period for coffee trees and is boosting coffee prices. Somar Meteorologia reported today that Brazil's largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received no rain during the week ended September 6.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/brazil-dryness-ahead-flowering-period-boosts-coffee-prices
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This source has no idea what they are talking about. It usually doesn't rain in coffee land in early September!!! This is normal weather.
Almost no rain in J-J-A into the first half of September. Then rains SOMETIMES picks up in late September but usually not until October. Even then, the October rain is still less than 50% of the rain of Dec-Jan.
If the forecast is still dry and its a month from now, THEN the coffee market will get bullish over it.
Also, rains this early in the year will often trigger flowering thats TOO EARLY. Initial rains that cause flowering MUST BE accompanied by follow up rains within a couple of weeks or else the flowers will abort. Aborted flowers zap energy from the coffee plants.
After flowers abort, the plant has to start over with less energy. Coffee plants will get numerous times to flower and add to flowers in Oct-Nov. Flowering in Sept is early but ok if rains don't stop for a couple of weeks. Flowering Dec is late.
What will happen if you have several partial flowerings spaced out numerous weeks apart, the harvest is a nightmare.
They want to pick the cherries just as they get ripe. Not before not too long after. There will always be cherries at different levels of maturity but the more spaced out the flowering, the more times pickers have to harvest the ripe cherries.
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https://www.worlddata.info/america/brazil/climate-minas-gerais.php
thanks for the great info Mike.
It looks like a cup with handle has formed. 400 is strong resistance, triple top. If it breaks should be a good move? JMHO
YW, cutworm!
Thank YOU for pointing this out. I hadn't been watching the coffee market for many months and since it's a bit early for their rainy season, overlooked following it until you brought it up.
I'll try to post updated rain forecasts for Brazil coffee when possible but might not be able to stay on top of it, unless it turns into a huge weather market thats tradable. I don't like waking up at 3:15 am to trade it so that might now happen.
Coffee just spiked 5c higher during this post. WHAT HAPPENED?
This spike higher seems tied to news. Not likely weather because the last 6z GEFS that just came out was WETTER for coffee land. It possible that a too early rain is bullish. As mentioned yesterday, if we have the first flowering in September, the risk of it being aborted is pretty high because the rainy season usually hasn't kicked in yet and the flowering needs additional rains within around 2 weeks or it will be aborted before turning to cherries.
If I had try to trade the increase in rains on this last model, it would have been a short and I would have just got my butt whipped!
1. Just out 6z GEFS-wetter for coffee-land. These are rain anomalies/departures.
2. Previous 0z GEFS-6 hours earlier
3. Coffee-land map
