What's coming up?

Here's the Surface Low Pressure solutions from the 12z European Ensemble models individual members for some interesting time frames.

Not much going on the next several days.

Day 8: Storm off the East Coast

Day 14: Lots of potential new activity blossoming in the key area for storm births

EXTREMELY quiet in the tropics for this time of year. Ferdinand is at 45 mph and weakening.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Models don't show much thru the first week in September. Seasonally tropical storms really pick up then, so odds are high that mid September will feature many more storms. 

MJO is in phase 4-5 now which suppresses tropical activity but should be sliding around to phases 1-2, around the 2nd week in September which, along with the warm ocean temps and time of year, might really ignite alot of tropical activity.

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Forecast

Data from the Climate Data Center       

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/usatlant.fc.gif

We can see the cooler water band in the Western Atlantic in the wake of Erin. Erin stirred up cooler water from significant depths below the surface.

Ocean temps of at least 26 deg. C are needed for a hurricane, which is around 79 deg. F.

Warmer ocean temps have been associated with rapid intensification(when all other elements are favorable at the same time). 

Rapid intensification

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_intensification

This was the Surface Low Pressure forecasts for the different European Ensemble model  individual member forecasts from the last 12z run for September 12th, 360 hours/15 days from now.

The Atlantic Basic is coming to life with tropical activity!! This is also approaching the season peak, along with the warm waters and the MJO in a favorable phase.

 Hopefully, these storms will not threaten the US with any direct hits.

The tropics will be EXPLODING with activity in week 2! These are all the individual solutions for SLP from the Europe Ensemble model.  There may be 3 different storms going at the same time. 

1. Day 7: Birthplace for new storms

2. Day 10: Storms develop and move west

3. Day 13: Storms develop, move west and turn sharply north before hitting the US Coast, though a couple of outliers hit the US, including an outlier in the Gulf of Mexico.

4. Day 15: Same extremely active pattern continues. Most likely paths are similar to Erin, WELL off the East Coast. However, there are a couple of solutions that hit the East Coast or Gulf of Mexico but they are close to outliers.