Excessive Rainfall threat. If(when) there is an upper level ridge along the East Coast, this can(will) be a significant factor in the Midwest to pump in moisture for heavy rain events.

Current Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Severe Storm Risk.  Hit the map for full screen.  Elevated risk N.Plains/Upper Midwest to W.Great Lakes today...........shifting southeast with the cold front early this week.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
Current Day 2 Outlook
Current Day 3 Outlook
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

High Temperatures today and Monday. Here comes the heat!............expanding from  the Plains,  into the Midwest and East! More like July!

New cool intrusion N.Rockies(today)/N.Plains tomorrow.........headed east early this week.

Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!  

Here comes the much more humid air too, with the southerly winds! Gulf of Mexico moisture +fairly high soil moisture in the eastern half of the country.

Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature. Heat Index an increasing factor again. Afternoon readings above 100 from Chicago southward.

Highs days 3-7.

Brief shot of cooler air for the N.Plains to Midwest, then Northeast at the start then the heat starts to return by the end of next week...........and the end of August/Start of September!

First week of September looking hot!

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?  We are now 5 weeks past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.

These temperatures will be close to normal..................for early August, not the endof August......with more heat to start September!

They are cooler THIS week than last Thursday's forecast but similar to Friday's/Saturday's  forecast!

High temperature departures:

Low Temperature Departures:

Huge Canadian High with its very dry pleasant air mass has shifted eastward......the center is now along the East Coast. Winds on it's backside are from the south..........transporting in deep level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico(and very warm temps) which will provide copious H2O for rains in much of the Cornbelt over the next several days...........with a cold in the N.Plains sinking southeast early this week.

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Here is the latest radar image.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Satellite picture.  

Rains the past 24 hours.  Parts of Indiana the big winner. 

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

Southern Plains was in horrible shape......the map below shows massive improvement there.  Still a dry pocket  in N. MO which may get more rain in the next week.

Much of the Cornbelt is great shape for Late August so the crops have been fed lots of yield making H2O in August.

Wet from NE/w.IA/sw.MN..............and the East Coast.

Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Bountiful rains for most of the Cornbelt..............and points eastward and westward.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday. Drought has been shrinking but still persists in N.Missouri and Texas.........this measure takes into account the long term precip/sub soil moisture and goes back over MANY months.

            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    

Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.

Today:     Heat is on the move across  the Plains on the way to the Midwest/East the next couple of days..........but a cool surge in the S.Canadian Rockies is hitting the N.Rockies right now and will sink into the N.Plains, then Upper Midwest.....then Northeast early next week.

In 5+ days:

Heat rebounds quickly late this week, setting up for a hot Labor Day weekend.  

In 10+ days   Positive anomalies across much of the country.

Day 15  Heat across most of the country.

Big Question now, is how long will the heat last in the Midwest/East?

Maps below of the Canadian ensembles are for 2 weeks from today.

The top map is the ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average.

Will the heat ridge break down?

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 10, 2018 00 UTC

NWS extended still the same.........high probability of above average temperatures over much of the country. Above average rains over much of the Cornbelt.

This product will be updated automatically at around 2pm CDT. 

6-10 day Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

8-14 day Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4.

Today, we have a marked change from the previous 6 days..........huge upper level ridge in Western Canada..................cool, dry Canadian air dowstream inn the Midwest and East.

September is gradually getting cooler, almost every year and heating degree days start replacing cooling degree days as being the most important.

Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

Precip below: