Still nothing in the Atlantic tropics or Gulf and no sign of anything threatening the US for the next 2 weeks.
Update:
Nothing on most of the guidance. However, Larry, who watches the tropics better than me noted a potential early in week 2 system on the European model which he describes nicely below.
Mike,
Based on rather persistent model consistency, including many Euro runs since mid last week, I do feel there’s a good chance we’ll get the next TD+ in the yellowed area in the E Atlantic near or just after 9/1. The good news, however, is that this would likely either recurve harmlessly way east in the open ocean or dissipate. There are chances for something else further west in the basin, but that’s much more up in the air as regards formation and location should it form.
Surprisingly to me, the newest Euro has for the 2nd run in a row a TS that forms near S FL day 6 and then goes into the Gulf and hits LA day 9 by what likely would be at least a cat 1 H IF this were for real. I'm not buying this at this time as other models don't agree and the genesis is rather sudden SE of S FL. Also, the 0Z Euro ensemble had only 3 of 50 or so members with something like this that attains TS+ strength. In addition, the Euro has fooled us in recent years in this area with fake storms. So, despite two model runs in a row having it, I caution readers to not get too excited about this at least for now though it admittedly is quite interesting, especially since it is in what would be a dangerous spot in the warmest waters of the entire basin.
IF this were for real, it would likely be too weak and too fast moving to have a significant effect on the FL orange crop as it would have just developed. However, again IF this were for real, it could potentially have a significant effect on oil and NG production in the NC and NW GOM as it would be much stronger by then most likely. However, the good news is that the % of US NG and oil production in the GOM is much lower than it had been, say, 10+ year ago. So, unlike in years past when any real threat would tend to be bullish due to supply implications being stronger than lowered demand in areas hit by the storm, the lowered demand could easily match any production losses depending on strength offshore and track onshore. Thus, this could conceivably be bearish overall or at least neutral. Too may variables to determine and the chances of this storm being real is low at this time anyway....so not an important factor at least yet.
Thanks Larry!
Here is days 6-10 from the just out 12z European model. The maps are spaced at 12 hour time frames. Note the tropical system.
12Z Euro ensemble (EPS) update for the potential genesis day 6 near S FL: much more active for this than was the 0Z EPS. Something like 30% of the members have a TS+ vs only about 5% on the prior run! Most of these are in the GOM but a couple hit central or N FL east coast. Now this is starting to get my attention a little bit more in that this EPS is saying that PERHAPS the last 2 operational Euro runs aren't drunk. But I still would want to see at least the GFS have this for more confidence. So, still very low confidence.
Thanks Larry!
You posted a link here several months ago for the European model ensembles(not the CDD) but for hurricane tracking that I didn't save. There are several different ones that I see but I wanted to use that one since I know that probably is the best, since you use it.
Can you give me that again please.
