https://ijr.com/fed-offers-up-prediction-that-spells-good-news-for-trumps-economy/ any ideas of what this means for America if this estimate comes even close to what is predicted......yes great news for America....again..sad sad sad news for libs who continue to root for the demise of this country. Gee next comes the ideas of lower taxes, strong national defense, strong boarders, and best of all personal responsiblilty
Thank you, mcfarm!
From your article:
https://ijr.com/fed-offers-up-prediction-that-spells-good-news-for-trumps-economy/
The Atlanta Fed’s latest GDPNow model estimate comes after U.S. consumer confidence increased by 12.3 points in May, marking the first increase in five months, according to the Conference Board. Moreover, the U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs in April, beating economists’ expectations.
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These monthly jobs reports continue to be FAKE NEWS!
Let's just do the math on this.
REPORTED May Jobs gained +139,000
Revised(final) April jobs lost -147,000
Change in jobs from previous report -8,000
They did the exact same thing while Biden was in office.
The Labor Department estimated that job growth averaged 174,000 a month in the year that ended in March — a drop of 68,000 a month from the 242,000 that were initially reported. The revisions released Wednesday were preliminary, with final numbers to be issued in February next year.
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Let me show you that graph again. Take away the fake, small increase in jobs in 2025 and we have a serious problem.........now THAT is shocking!
Almost every month we get an intentionally bloated estimate of XXX,XXX new jobs that make the headline news and everybody celebrates over how bullish it is to the economy and stock market.
Then, when the next month comes out with the latest intentionally bloated estimate, they tell the truth about the previous month with a downward revision that takes away many of those jobs they told us were created -XXX,XXX jobs, for instance in the revision this last time.
It happens over and over and over.
Entities reporting honest statistics don't repeat errors from the same side each time.
How many coins do you know that land on heads with every 1st flip.............then on the 2nd flip they always lands on tails???
https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=1203968&mid=11251519#M11251519 this chart was supposed to come up and did not....Yes charts are charts they cannot predict but sometimes are amazingly accurate,,,,,,,.......right to that very last data point. Under the current circumstances I prefer to hope for the best because there are just so many train wrecks of Biden to clean up.
Thanks, mcfarm!
This was the same group's previous forecast. Obviously, a later forecast would be much more important but it shows how unreliable the predictions are:
May 14, 2025
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimated 
that real GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025, the first negative reading since the first quarter of 2022. As figure 1 shows, this reading was still well above the final nowcast of −2.7 percent growth for what was then the standard GDPNow model and meaningfully above, but closer to, the final "gold-adjusted" model forecast of −1.5 percent.
I have NEVER followed this report and am just learning about it(and sharing) because you brought it up, its fascinating and the markets obviously focus on it.
Note the 90% confidence level of the +139,000 number we got is between 3,200 and 274,800.
NO WONDER the revisions are always huge. The fact that they are usually DOWNward revisions tells us the bias.
This would be like me forecasting the weather tomorrow to be party sunny, with a 90% chance of it being somewhere between sunny and rainy.
Current Employment Statistics - CES (National)
%20U.S.%20Bureau%20of%20Labor%20Statistics.png)
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Looking at that data for the May jobs report which states +139,000, the service sector had +144,000 which was the leader.
https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag07.htm
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Let's look at the past 3 months for a better indication of where new jobs are coming from:
%20U.S.%20Bureau%20of%20Labor%20Statistics.png)
3 main industries gained jobs:
1. service
2.private health
3. hospitality.
4. Government jobs??????????
How in tarnation did government jobs increase by 6,000!!!!
Compared to 6 months ago, there are 69,000 more government jobs. Compared to 12 months ago, there are 142,300 new government jobs. How can that be unless they are manipulating these numbers to make the jobs report look good?
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Here are the authentic facts:
By Reuters
With the latest reductions, reported on Friday in the monthly nonfarm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, federal government non-U.S. Postal Service employment has declined by more than 23,000 so far this year.
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Why aren't these REAL job losses showing up in the reports, like the one from The Bureau of Labor Statistics that we got yesterday???
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics
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https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
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https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
%20FRED%20St.%20Louis%20Fed.png)
If you throw out the spike lower from COVID(and 2 year recovery), the May 2025 number was the LOWEST since October 1977. Lowest in almost 48 years.
The only reason that the numbers were lower, prior to that was that most women with children stayed home to take care of the kids and were not a part of the workforce.
So the reality is.........the May 2025 Labor Force participation rate drop to 62.4%, outside of the COVID spike is the lowest reading during this modern era with working mothers.
Those are the stone cold facts, along with the employment DROPPING by 696,000 this past month!
So the employment figures we get are very dishonest.
At the very least, it appears that what they've done is take all the fired workers from government jobs and categorized them (as well as other lost jobs) as no longer part of the work force so they don't show up as lost jobs.
Labor participation in the work force dropped by .2%. Those were all people that had jobs in April............but no longer have jobs in May but they are no longer using them to calculate employment figures in the monthly reports, like those released last week.
The honest number for May is:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
With regards to extremely volatile models like this one, shown to predict the future:
https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=1203968&mid=11251519#M11251519
HA! They can't even get the past right!
And the reason this particular model is so messed up is because it relies on the bogus government numbers fed into it:
https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/realgdptrackingslides.pdf
"GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model."
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Garbage in, garbage out
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garbage_in,_garbage_out
"GIGO" redirects here. For the protein subunits, see Gi/Go. For the Japanese arcade chain GENDA GiGO, see Sega World.
In computer science, garbage in, garbage out (GIGO) is the concept that flawed, biased or poor quality ("garbage") information or input produces a result or output of similar ("garbage") quality. The adage points to the need to improve data quality in, for example, programming. Rubbish in, rubbish out (RIRO) is an alternate wording.[1][2]
The principle applies to all logical argumentation: soundness implies validity, but validity does not imply soundness.
again what a mess in big gov. As I was watching some big time bureaucrat testify before congress I was thinking about all the facts you presented above. This guy was trying to convince congress that he had spent well in researching out of country business partners like The commys in china. But he could not answer after spending millions just why certain black listed corporations sled right thru all his wasted millions and were on our partners in several ventures. Hell who knows maybe our tax dollars paid for that drone balloon that went right over all our military installations and we did nothing.
Thanks, mcfarm!
The drop in the labor force participation rate has been a slow drop for over 2 decades, mostly based on our aging worker population(baby boomers) that have increased those in retirement.
One can guess that this faster than usual drop was from people previously employed by the government that have chosen an early retirement.
A big problem with this (and the real employment drop of 696,000 workers) is that they go from tax payers that are the primary source of income for our government to people that draw money from the government (pensions, short term severance packages, unemployment and social security benefits if older).
I'm in strong agreement with you on cuts in government spending and waste, mcfarm. And doing it the way we've done it before was only increasing government spending and waste, so something different needed to be done.
However, I'm especially for the cuts because it helps reduce the ballooning deficit which is increasingly crushing our economy.
I'd like to revisit this article from several posts up.
What jumps out (literally) is what happened during the Obama years. HOLY COW!
Something doesn't seem right about this.
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THIS source claims Obama got rid of a massive number of government jobs.
Private payrolls have added 7 million jobs over Obama’s presidency, while government payrolls (federal, state and local) have contracted by a combined 634,000 jobs.
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Both of those sources above can't be right.
Maybe Obama DID increase federal government jobs while state and local government jobs declined but the magnitude of his increase in federal jobs at the top is so great that it required constructing a special chart with MUCH greater values above 0 so that it would fit his massive +151.2k on it.
Their last statement is this:
And while the federal government has added 62,700 non-postal jobs, the Postal Service has reduced its workforce nearly 18%, or 129,400 jobs. The Postal Service now employs fewer than 600,000 people, its smallest payroll since 1964.
This suggests that Obama, other than the postal service did add federal government jobs. The article from last month say 151.2K total which is a huge disparity.
Pew Research Center is usually an extremely reliable source but so is Reuters at the top. This is very puzzling. Does anybody have an explanation for this disparity between these 2 sources on the Obama Federal jobs??
Thanks much, mcfarm!
I feel that Rand Paul is the only politician that consistently reflects ethically based principles in his positions. His other voting principles and how he sticks to them are 2nd to none.
It's insane that we keep electing these unqualified people when the absolutely best, no question about it, massively qualified guy is Rand Paul!
His dad, Ron would have made a good president but Rand is THE BEST!
In a field that features cruds and duds, he stands out above them all.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_Rand_Paul
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rand_Paul
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cpi-report-today-inflation-may-2025-trump-tariffs/
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https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-consumer-prices-rise-moderately-may-2025-06-11/
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https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/
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Graphics for Economic News Releases
https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm
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With all the job cuts by DOGE, this was inevitable.
06/05/2025
Productivity decreases 1.5% in Q1 2025; unit labor costs increase 6.6% (annual rates)
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OUCH!!!!