Excessive Rainfall threat. This will increase next week.

Current Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Severe Storm Risk.  Hit the map for full screen.  Elevated risk in a couple of spots.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
Current Day 2 Outlook
Current Day 3 Outlook
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

High Temperatures today and Saturday. Great in the Great Lakes.............but here comes the heat............expanding into the Plains, Midwest and East over the Weekend.

Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!  

Very dry air Midwest to East Coast and even points south of that! Refreshing!!!

Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature. Heat Index not a factor in this pleasantly dry air mass today.

Highs days 3-7.

Here Come Da Heat...........To the eastern 1/2 of the country!

A bit cooler late next week for the Midwest/Northeast on the overnight models!

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?  We are now 4 weeks past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.

These temperatures will around normal..................for mid July at the hottest time of year!!

They are cooler late next week than yesterday!

High temperature departures:

Low Temperature Departures:

Huge Canadian High with its very dry pleasant air mass shifting eastward......the center is now along the East Coast.

Next weather maker now crossing the Midwest.

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Here is the latest radar image.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Satellite picture.  

Rains the past 24 hours. 

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

Southern Plains was in horrible shape......the map below shows massive improvement there.  Still a dry pocket  in MO but much of the surface moisture has been recharged.

Wet from NE/w.IA/sw.MN..............and the East Coast.

Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Bountiful rains for most of the Cornbelt..............and points eastward and westward.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday. Drought has been shrinking.........this measure takes into account the long term precip/sub soil moisture and goes back over MANY months.

            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    

Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.

Today:  Last of the cool in the Midwest for awhile...........or so we thought yesterday.   Heat has already shifted out of the West and is shifting into the Plains.

In 5+ days:

Heat has spread across the Plains eastward! A weak cool front, not there yesterday has emerged in the Upper Midwest.

In 10+ days   Positive anomalies across much of the country.

Day 15  Heat across most of the country.

Big Question now, is how long will the heat last in the Midwest/East?

Maps below of the Canadian ensembles are for 2 weeks from today.

The top map is the ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average.

Upper level heat ridge in the Southern Plains! but does it hold on at the  East Coast(Midwest) still?  A 50-50 split on whether to maintain the ridge along the East Coast vs allowing a strong jet stream to dislodge it.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 08, 2018 00 UTC

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4.

Today, we have widespread heat continuing in week 3 for the 5th day in a row,  and also during week 4 over much of the entire country......with anomalies greatest along the Canadian border........where they would be least bullish because mid September is usually starting to get a bit cool up there and heating degree days start replacing cooling degree days.

Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

Precip below:

The last 12z GFS operational model is a bit cooler yet, with the cool intrusion from Canada next week. This is the reason for natural gas to be sharply lower today.

Then it breaks down the heat ridge for the East and Midwest late in week :

Day 5 below, then day 15 below that:

gfs_namer_120_200_wnd_ht	gfs_namer_120_500_vort_ht
gfs_namer_120_1000_500_thick	gfs_namer_120_850_temp_ht

gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht	gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick	gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht

Last run of the 12z Canadian ensembles flattens the heat ridge even more........suppresses it even farther south..but still with a few members preferring it along the East Coast:

348h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 8, 2018 00UTC

GFS ensembles from 12z at 360 hours still have alot of members that like the heat ridge along the East Coast........... a few that don't.

Extreme weather for days 7-7:

Excessive rains from the C.Cornbelt to Great Lakes.  Excessive heat along the East Coast

NWS extended still the same.........high probability of above average temperatures over much of the country. Above average rains over much of the Cornbelt........extended a bit farther southwest compared to yesterday(dry in the S.Plains.

6-10 day Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

8-14 day Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

Every Friday Afternoon, the NWS makes a forecast for weeks 3 and 4.

Here is the one from today.  It features widespread warmer than average temperatus in the West, East and along the Canadian border states but equal chances for above and below in the S.Plains to W.Cornbelt. 

Rains are forecast to be below average from the S.Plains across the Midwest to the Northeast states. 

Week 3-4 Outlooks
Valid: 08 Sep 2018 to 21 Sep 2018 Updated: 24 Aug 2018
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Temperature Probability	Precipitation Probability (Experimental)