INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Aug. 23, 2018, 4:32 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, August 24, 2018 



8:30 AM ET. July Advance Report on Durable Goods



                       Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +1.0%)



                       Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.5%)



                       Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.4%)



                       Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air,  M/M% (previous +0.6%)



                       Shipments: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.0%)

                       

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The September NASDAQ 100 closed slightly lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are  neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7314.26 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, July's high crossing at 7530.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 7530.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7314.26. Second support is the late-July's low crossing at 7166.75. 



The September S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Thursday in a typical summer session, which is characterized by low trading volumes. Investor are also keeping an eye on a gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyo., where Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be the featured speaker on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this summer's rally, January's high crossing at 2885.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average low crossing at 2800.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2873.50. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2885.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2800.67. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2766.70.  



The Dow closed lower for the second day in a row on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Initial Jobless Claims, a tracker of layoffs in the U.S., fell slightly in mid-August and hovered near a 49-year low. New claims declined by 2,000 to 210,000 in the seven days from Aug. 12 to Aug. 18. Economists had forecast a 215,000 reading. New-home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual 627,000 rate, falling to a 9-month low. IHS Market U.S. manufacturing PMI hit the lowest level in 9 months, with a reading of 54.3 in August from 55.3 in the prior month, while IHS U.S. flash services PMI dropped to 55.2 in August from 56. A reading of at least 50 indicates improving conditions. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,057.29 would confirm that an important top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline. If the Dow extends the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 26,183.49 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 26,183.49. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 26,616.71. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,057.29. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 24,663.82.      



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September T-bonds closed up 4/32's at 145-19.



September T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The minutes of the Fed’s last meeting, released Wednesday, indicated broad-based support for another interest-rate hike in September with many officials stating that as long as economic data remain strong, it would likely soon be appropriate to take another step in removing policy accommodation. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, July's high crossing at 146-11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-26 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 145-24. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 146-11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-26. Second support is August's low crossing at 141-27.        



September T-notes closed down 20-points at 120-180.



September T-notes closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 121.030 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.300 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 120.240. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.300. Second support is August's low crossing at 119.025.        



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



October crude oil posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday amid by signs of tightening U.S. crude inventories. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 69.19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 66.15 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is August's high crossing at 68.86. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 69.19. First support is August's low crossing at 63.89. Second support is June's low crossing at 62.60. 



October heating oil closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 218.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below August's low crossing at 208.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of July low crossing at 205.41. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.09. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 224.48. First support is August's low crossing at 208.05. Second support is July's low crossing at 205.41.



October unleaded gas posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's rally, the late-July high crossing at 201.57 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 191.58 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the late-July high crossing at 201.57. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 204.04. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 183.15. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 177.05.



October Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it extends this month's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off July's low June's high crossing at 3.018 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.899 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 2.982. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 3.025 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.899. Second support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.898.    



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The September Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 94.79 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the late-July low crossing at 93.87. If October renews the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 96.87. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 94.79. Second support is the late-July low crossing at 93.87.    



The September Euro closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 116.58 would signal that the short-term trend has turned higher. If September resumes this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 116.58. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 117.90. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 113.27. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78.    



The September British Pound closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2914 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2600 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2914. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3104. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 126.78. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2600. 



The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, June's high crossing at 1.0302 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0106 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.0217. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0302. First support is August's low crossing at 1.0042. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.9984. 



The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes this month's decline, July's low crossing at 75.31 is the next downside target. If September extends the rally off June's low, August's high crossing at 77.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 77.20. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 77.94. First support is July's low crossing at 75.31. Second support is June's low crossing at 74.80.  



The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9029 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends today's decline, August's low crossing at 0.8943 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 0.9172 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 0.9127. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 0.9172. First support is August's low crossing at 0.8943. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.8867.



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



October gold closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Thursday's low due to strength in the U.S. Dollar. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1205.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off April's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1205.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1239.80. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1162.70. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10.



September silver closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.110 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.792. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.110. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 14.315. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.        



September copper closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 271.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 271.55. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 282.99. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 255.20. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed down 5 3/4-cents at 3.61. 



December corn closed lower on Thursday thereby renewing the decline off the late-July high. Corn exports for last week included 6.8 million bushels in old crop sales and another 41.5 million bushels in new crop sales for a total volume of 48.4 million bushels. That was moderately behind the prior week’s tally of 54.5 million bushels but just ahead of trade estimates of 47.3 million bushels. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 3.50 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.78 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.78. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.89 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 3.60 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.50 1/4.   



December wheat closed down 2 1/4-cent at 5.43. 



December wheat closed lower for the fourth day in a row on Thursday as it extends the decline off August's high. Wheat exports for last week came in at 8.8 million bushels, falling significantly below trade estimates of 23.9 million bushels and the prior week’s tally of 29.5 million bushels. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.68 3/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 5.82 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 5.82 3/4. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 6.13. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.23 3/4.  



December Kansas City Wheat closed down 2 3/4-cents at 5.54 1/2. 



December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off August's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 5.28 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 5.96 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 5.96. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 6.26. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.47. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.28 1/4. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed down 4 1/4-cents at 5.99 1/4. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off August's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.88 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 6.31 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 6.31 3/4. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 6.56. First support is the 50-day moving average low crossing at 5.88 3/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.71 3/4.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed down 15 3/4-cents at 8.54 1/2. 



November soybeans closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline.Soybean exports for last week came in at 5.6 million bushels of old crop sales plus another 42.2 million bushels of new crop sales for a total of 47.8 million bushels. That nearly doubled the prior week’s effort of 25.9 million bushels, along with the average trade guess of 26.6 million bushels. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November renews the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.15 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.15. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.42 3/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 8.51 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4.



December soybean meal closed down $6.20 at 317.00. 



December soybean meal closed lower on Thursday and renewed the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 303.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 331.50 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's crossing at 339.40. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 343.20. First support is today's low crossing at 316.20. Second support is weekly support crossing at 303.80. 



December soybean oil closed down 15-points. At 28.41. 



December soybean oil closed lower on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. If December resumes the decline off the late-July high, July's low crossing at 27.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.03 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.03. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 30.15. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 28.05. Second support is July's low crossing at 27.95. 

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed down $2.43 at $51.17. 



October hogs closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 52.14 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends this week's decline, August's low crossing at 47.82 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 61.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 59.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 61.65. First support is today's low crossing at 51.00. Second support is August's low crossing at 47.82.   



October cattle closed down $0.18 at 108.73. 



October cattle closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 105.48 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off August's low, July's high 112.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 112.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33. First support is August's low crossing at 107.65. Second support is July's low crossing at 105.48.   

 

October Feeder cattle closed up $0.18 at $148.80. 



October Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 146.35 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 152.35 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 152.35. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 153.45. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 146.35. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 145.42.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 9.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.49 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.       



September cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.16 has opened the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.46 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September resumes this summer's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 19.86 is the next downside target. 



October sugar closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 9.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.51 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.  



October cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 78.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 86.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 

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