well of course they will they are setting export records on a monthly basis. 

the  tariffs are not hurting them 

the US on the other hand  not so good

Hi Frey

I can't see the response so I hope I have the correct poster

[my memory not being so good]

Where did you get the info that china exports are so good

My info [as bad as it is] seems to recollect some who think china exports are suffering due to trade tensions

Also, china may devalue their currency more [of which china doesn't want]

 unemployment is becoming an issue, and their banks may need a bail out as much of their internal spending on ghost cities etc. has no economic benefit and the loans can never be paid back due to lack of revenue

I know much of this is  bad decisions on allocation of capital, but my info is that exports have slowed thus china has a lack of revenue and possible non re-payment of bank loans

I am also unable to provide solid stats on china so maybe some body could help both of us in our disagreement of exports by china

I think china wants to go to the WTO about the trade issue so my thinking is, if trade is so great, why go to the WTO which Trump will ignore, so , one more reason why china is hurting and grasping at straws at the WTO

My perspective on tariffs and trade imbalance run along these lines.  If having a negative trade imbalance is not a bad thing, then as for myself, I am willing as an American to suffer the consequences of having a positive trade imbalance for the sake of the worlds economic health.  

So let's turn it around and for every country we have a negative trade imbalance with, let's turn it into a positive trade imbalance.  I'm willing to make the sacrifice.  

Wayne here is an article on China exports both to the US and the rest of the world

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade/chinas-july-exports-rise-more-than-expected-despite-u-s-tariffs-idUSKBN1KT09X

There is nothing good for America in these stats.  It's a reflection of gutless politicians that wouldn't stand up for us because capitalists were getting rich.

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html

We have nothing to lose.  It is still 350 billion against us.  I favor war to continually being the dumping ground for the world's exports without equal reciprocity in trade.

frey,

Your article from the news reporting source Reuters states this:

China's July exports rise more than expected despite U.S. tariffs

Elias Glenn

BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s exports growth unexpectedly accelerated in July despite fresh U.S. tariffs, while its trade surplus with the United States remained near record highs as Beijing and Washington ramped up a bitter dispute that has rattled financial markets. 

China’s closely watched surplus with the United States dipped only slightly to $28.09 billion last month from a record $28.97 billion in June. Washington has long criticized China’s trade surplus with the United States and has demanded Beijing cut it."

So I decided to fact check that number from a data source and got this:

                    China July Trade Surplus Smaller than Expected              

            https://tradingeconomics.com/china/balance-of-trade

"China's trade surplus narrowed sharply to USD 28.05 bilion in July 2018 from USD 44.85 billion in the same month a year earlier and far below market consensus of USD 39.33 bilion.  Imports jumped 27.3 percent to a near record high while exports rose at a softer 12.2 percent."

Looking at the data we see the wild month to month fluctuations and big misses with guesses.

Interesting that China's tiny 2% increase in exports was described by Reuters as "growth unexpectedly accelerated" 

But the drop in their suplus with the US of over 3% was described as "dipped only slightly" 

Funny how the media can write stories with selective facts and verbiage and push it as objective. 

However, they did finish with a fair conclusion(after the reader(intentionally) has already formed their opinion from the title and article preceding the last paragraph:

"A weaker yuan, which marked its worst 4-month fall on record between April and July, may have taken the sting out of 25 percent tariffs on $34 billion exports to the United States. However, analysts still expect a less favorable trade balance for China in coming months given it’s early days in the tariff brawl."

well metmike I guess one could also say its about the readers agenda.

If you listened to trump ( we have them on the run trade wars are easy to win ) or polled those of his followers about how the tariffs were working I would bet most of them would be surprised if not shocked that their exports increased  after the tariffs were enacted, I have told many times on this site just wait and see they need the US and we don't have to worry we are winning.  so yes unexpectedly accelerated would then be accurate. 

and anybody without and agenda would certainly understand paying a 25% tariff to achieve a 3% result would view that as minuscule.

but like I stated when the reader has an agenda and a article does not meet that agenda they will always find a way to try to discredit the article.

I guess its all in what news you want to buy into.     

So in your other post, you stated that 6 months is not enough time to wait for the bad stuff to happen but here, it's enough time to see that all the good stuff is not happening that Trumps brags about.

We can agree 100% that Trump massively exaggerates the good things happening in any realm that he effects. 

So, ignoring  Trumps incredible embellishment of facts, we should judge his policies..........not compared to what he says is happening  but  based on what is happening.

Of course anybody that dislikes Trump will read me as brain washed Trump follower. 

All I care about is  the empirical evidence that either supports an agenda or not. 

On climate change and the climate accord I have a strong opinion.

On the tariffs...........I have read alot from both sides but can't decide. It could be the dumbest thing a president has ever done or the smartest thing. 

The strangest thing to me is that there are so many people who know about as much as me that are absolutely positive they know.

I believe that the Chinese will not come to the table until after the elections in November. If pubs retain senate then they will come to the table. But if impeachment is imminent they will hold out longer. JMHO

beans are down $2.00 a bushel since the Chinese stated they would retaliate with tariffs on beans if trump put tariffs on there products.

This country grows 4.5 billion bu of beans thats Nine Billion out of the US economy for a couple hundred steel jobs?

and that is in just one retaliatory tariff  then look at pork and corn ect.ect.ect.

Yes the steel industry is going to be a possible small net winner and the cost to the rest of the economy is what?  

That 2 dollar drop has nothing to do with yet another record crop, Brazil setting their own record year after year, record world stocks, or swine flu.

Jim all the things you mentioned would be true in a lib world if and only if Obama were in office.....otherwise they are no factor its all Trump all the time

Sad but true.  

well world production is down about 1 mmt from last year, The Market knew how many acres the US was planting and how big worldwide Production was going to be along with the fact that the Hog issues were not news when the Market tanked we were trading 10.25-10.77 for a couple of months while all of these events were know ( except for swine issues )  not until the retaliations did the price tank.

Some were able to take advantage of those prices some did not the tanking started just as soybeans werre being put into the ground in a lot of areas.

for thirity five years I have sat and listened to how Carter screwed the Farmers but now when trump does the same thing Mcfarm and his Minions say it has no effect on the markets.

That is when you know they are just a bunch of kool-aid drinkers and truly deserve trump.

Did you not see the last USDA report?  World stocks at an all time high.  US ending stocks at an all time high and threatening to get higher.  SA had another record.

If world stocks grew 10% and world production was down 1MMT, then it's even worse that what the price action is suggesting.  

It's not kool aid.  It's math.  

No ... really, soybeans should seriously still be at 10.65... (*insert heavy sarcasm*)

 --- At Least The Donald Is Addressing The Situation Of China Ripping Us Off

rope - a - dope

"well world production is down about 1 mmt from last year, The Market knew how many acres the US was planting and how big worldwide Production was going to be along with the fact that the Hog issues were not news when the Market tanked we were trading 10.25-10.77 for a couple of months while all of these events were know ( except for swine issues )  not until the retaliations did the price tank."

frey,

Let's check to see how accurate your statement is:

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate from the last USDA report on  August 10, 2018.

https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

OILSEEDS

:

  U.S. oilseed production for 2018/19 is projected at 135.6 million tons, up 7 million from last month mainly due to a higher soybean production forecast.  Soybean production is forecast at 4,586 million bushels, up 276 million on higher yields.  Harvested area is forecast at 88.9 million acres, unchanged from the July projection.  The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 51.6 bushels per acre is 3.1 bushels above last month and 2.5 bushels above last year.  As higher production more than offsets lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies for 2018/19 are projected at a record 5,040 million bushels, 5 percent above last month.  With larger supplies, crush and exports are raised 15 and 20 million bushels, WASDE-580-3 respectively.  Ending stocks are projected at 785 million bushels, up 205 million from last month.

Global oilseed 2018/19 supply and demand forecasts include higher production, exports, crush, and stocks compared to last month.  Global oilseed production for 2018/19 is projected at 603.1 million tons, up 10.5 million with higher soybean, sunflower seed, cottonseed, and peanut production partly offset by lower rapeseed.  Global soybean, peanut, and cottonseed crops are raised on higher U.S. production.  Sunflowerseed production is higher for the EU, benefitting  from favorable weather conditions in southern and southeastern Europe.  

Conversely, hot, dry weather in northern Europe resulted in a 1-million-ton reduction to EU rapeseed production.  Other oilseed production changes include higher sunflowerseed and rapeseed production for Russia and Ukraine due to beneficial weather conditions over the past few weeks.   Global oilseed exports for 2018/19 are projected at 182.5 million tons, up 1.2 million with higher soybean exports for the United States and higher rapeseed exports for Ukraine.  Global crush is raised 1.2 million tons to 501.8 million.  Lower soybean crush for China and rapeseed crush for the EU are offset by higher rapeseed crush for Russia and sunflowerseed crush for the EU, Russia, and Ukraine. With larger increases to supply than use, global oilseed stocks are raised 8.3 million tons to 119.9 million

So we were trading the china retaliatory tariffs in May -- before US beans for the most part were planted that makes  Last year 16-17 this year 17-18 and next year 18-19 even at this late date you can tell this by the fact that all of the 18-19 figures are projected yields and carryouts.

so that is where you are misguided 

"so that is where you are misguided"

All  I did was provide data from the USDA.

Since you want to continue to dig your hole:

"So we were trading the china retaliatory tariffs in May -- before US beans for the most part were planted that makes"

April 04, 2018

April 4 – Soybean Prices Plunge as China and USA Play Chicken

https://farmlead.com/blog/breakfast-brief/april-soybean-prices-plunge-china-trade-war/

"Grain markets are down hard this morning, led by soybean prices, as China has announced import tariffs on many goods, namely soybeans"

November soybeans made their highs on May 29th at 10.60(Sunday Night) after a week of hot/dry forecasts turned to wet and we had one of the best Summer's ever for growing beans with widspread rains, especially in the key, pod filling month of August. 

 "Last year 16-17 this year 17-18 and next year 18-19 even at this late date you can tell this by the fact that all of the 18-19 figures are projected yields and carryouts."

That's why they are  called the "futures" markets. We trade on reliable information that goes out as far as the market can see. Please look at that August USDA report again. It was the most bearish in history. The USDA projections in that report, did not suddenly come from nowhere.

In early June, when the weather turned much wetter the market already started trading those bearish numbers........as the bearish weather continued production estimates got higher and risk premium came out of the price and prices collapsed lower.

Of course the China tariff issue made it worse.

frey,

So where do you  think SX would be priced at right now if China was not a factor?

beans would be somewhere between 9.50 and 10 and corn would be 3.90 to 4.10 

but mainly the market would have some fear of being short at times during the growing season, but with the tariffs the shorts have NO fear because they truly understand that for the foreseeable future the Chinese carry us in a dim view.

Lets say trump is able to force the Chinese to capitulate and they take the kind of hit to exports that they will have to to cut the trade deficit in half. what will that kind of unemployment do to demand in china for high value protein ?

add to that the resentment the people and government will have towards the US ?

it will be a long term drag on farming and many other industries that will hope to ship into China.

did things need to change in the trade YES - is the trump method going to work in the long run   NO  IMHO

when US steel spends 750 million to update their facilities you can bet that automation will take jobs away vs add them why do you think they talked about the investment and not about added employees?

So things are slipping out about the Mexico deal it sure seems like we gained nothing or very next to nothing for all of the bs involved. but I will wait to see on how it works out. 

Interesting.  $10 for record amount of beans in the world and not by a small margin if not for the tariffs.  Not sure why you think they would be so valuable other than farmers are proud of their crops.  

Corn....I could see that price, but stock levels justify that.  

if you look at the spread or cash port SA vs Port USA it is screaming to you that USA is undervalued by $1.50 per bushel then at to that donney dictator thinks the cost of the tariffs is $1.65 per bushel seems pretty logical that $10,00 is the Number.

you don't have to be a farmer ( which I am not )  that overvalues his crop to come to the $10.00 number you simply have to be an objective numbers person.

in other words you simply have to to the MATH 

So lets do as you suggest and use math/numbers.

 1 year ago today, August 28, 2017 beans closed at $9.58. 

End of day Commodity Futures Price Quotes for Soybeans  

Soybeans 1 year chart below   

So let's see why soybeans in 2018 should be valued higher($10) than last year. Maybe production was lower this year? Nope production was higher.......a new record for production in 2018. Prices this  year...............should be lower,,  not higher using supply math below.

Maybe ending stocks as a % of  total usage are-- lower? Nope, they are MUCH higher and prices should be cheaper using  this  metric(below) also.

I also am not a farmer but am excellent at math, statistics and providing authentic empirical data to shed objective truth/interpretation on subjects that involve numbers.

The charts/graphs/numbers/stats above clearly do not justify $10 beans.  

If you disagree, then you should take it up with the soybean market and USDA. 

Soybean Supply & Demand Charts

https://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing/grain-supply-and-demand-wasde

Here is a price chart for beans going back 10 years:

Soybeans are at 10 year lows lower.and could drop lower.

thanks Mike...more empirical evidence....voodoooo to some

Not coincidentally with prices at 10 year lows, ending stocks as a % of usage are projected to be at 10 year highs.............in fact, the last time that they were higher than the latest projection for next year(which is what the market trades-latest information) was in the mid 1980's!

If the tariff war with China did not exist, of  course prices would be higher than they are right now. 

Based on the fundamentals and record crop however, we can say with confidence that they likely would be much lower than they were a year ago. 

How much lower?  I won't guess because so far, my posts on this have been based on objective empirical data and not speculative guesses. 

quote "I'm also not a farmer but am excellent at math, statistics, and providing Authentic empirical data to shed objective truth/interpretation on subjects that involve numbers.

and then you use ending stocks as a percent of total demand to try and prove your case that the price of beans is where it should be.

I have waited about a week to see if you would correct the flaw in you empirical objective view and you have not so 

Can you tell me where the flaw in your thinking and data is on bean prices?