KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, January 25, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1890.7K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1527.9K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 190.6K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 235K; previous 220K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -41K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1952000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +76K)
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Economic Indicators Report
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. December New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (expected 695K; previous 733K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (expected -5.2%; previous +17.5%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 4.6)
10:00 AM ET. December Leading Indicators
Leading Index (expected +0.5%; previous +0.4%)
Coincident Index (previous +0.3%)
Lagging Index (previous +0.1%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2584B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -183B)
11:00 AM ET. January Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 21)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 29)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 14)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 22)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, January 26, 2018
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected +0.9%; previous +1.3%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.0%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Advance estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +2.9%; previous +3.2%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +2.2%; previous +2.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.7%)
Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous +2.4%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.3%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +2.2%)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this year's rally into record territory. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6686.21 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 7004.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6824.13. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6686.21.
The March S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2756.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2854.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2802.62. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2756.00.
The Dow closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,464.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 26,392.80. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 25,942.49. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,464.21.
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March T-bonds closed down 19/32's at 148-20.
March T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday as it renewed the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 145-26 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 150-26 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 150-26. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 151-29. First support is today's low crossing at 148-07. Second support is weekly support crossing at 145-26.
March T-notes closed down 55/32's at 122-080.
March T-notes closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 120.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.039 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 122.188. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.039. First support is Monday's low crossing at 122.015. Second support is weekly support crossing at 120.285.
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March crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last June's low.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. If March extends this winter's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 65.72. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.52. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 59.39.
March heating oil closed higher on Wednesday as it resumed the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 221.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 202.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 210.66. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 221.96. First support is the reaction low crossing at 202.98. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 197.40.
March unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 192.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 184.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 191.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 192.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 184.57. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 179.00.
March Henry natural gas closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.177 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.899 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.177. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 3.272. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.978. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.899.
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The March Dollar closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 87.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.19 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 90.36. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.19. First support is today's low crossing at 88.95. Second support is weekly support crossing at 87.45.
The March Euro closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 125.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 124.55. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 125.34. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 122.48. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.40.
The March British Pound closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4608 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3703 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.4268. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4608. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3863. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3703.
The March Swiss Franc closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 1.0672 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0350 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 1.0672. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.0762. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0424. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0350.
The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this month's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 82.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.13. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.05.
The March Japanese Yen closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it renewed this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9218 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.8977 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9218. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9288. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.9056. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.8977.
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February gold closed sharply higher on Wednesday due to weakness in the US Dollar. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher price are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, September's high crossing at 1365.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1321.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1361.60. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1365.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1333.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1321.50.
March silver closed sharply higher on Wednesday and renewed the rally off December's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 17.686 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.741 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 18.015. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.068. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.741.
March copper closed sharply higher on Wednesday erasing all of Tuesday's decline.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that low is in or near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 323.34 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 323.34. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. First support is the 62% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 308.61. Second support is the 75% retracement level of December's rally crossing at 303.58.
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March Corn closed up 5 1/4-cents at 3.56 1/2.
March corn posted its largest single-day trading range since December the 4th and closed higher on Wednesday. Today's close above the reaction high crossing at 3.54 3/4 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If March extends today's rally, December's high crossing at 3.60 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below January's low crossing at 3.45 1/2 would renew the decline off last year's high while opening the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 3.32. First resistance is December's high crossing at 3.60 1/2. Second resistance is last October's high crossing at 3.69 1/4. First support is January's low crossing at 3.45 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32.
March wheat closed up 11-cents at 4.32 1/2.
March wheat closed higher on Wednesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off last Friday's high, December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.37. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.43. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 9 3/4-cents at 4.33.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 4.43. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.17 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up 3 1/2-cents at 6.08.
March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.23 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high resistance crossing at 6.51. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 6.04 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
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March soybeans closed up 4-cents at 9.90 1/4.
March soybeans closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.68 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 9.95 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 10.06 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.68 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 9.44 1/2.
March soybean meal closed up $1.40 at 341.00.
March soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last Friday's low, the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 345.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 322.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 341.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 345.90. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 325.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 322.90.
March soybean oil closed up 17 pts. At 32.69.
March soybean oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.09 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this month's decline, last June's low crossing at 31.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.09. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.59. First support is Monday's low crossing at 32.10. Second support is last June's low crossing at 31.85.
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February hogs closed up $0.68 at $72.92.
February hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 76.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 74.25. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 76.91. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.02. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 70.05.
February cattle closed up $0.70 at 125.43.
February cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 126.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 125.68. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 126.78. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.84. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.79.
March Feeder cattle closed down $0.58 at $146.40.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 148.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 140.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.55. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. First support is the reaction low crossing at 140.12. Second support is December's low crossing at 138.30.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 11.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.51 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Multiple closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 20.11 are needed to renew the rally off December's low.
March sugar closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the September-2015 low crossing at 12.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.31 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.24 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 87.18 is the next upside target.