KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, August 23, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1383.8K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 705K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 803.1K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 212K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -2K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1721000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -39K)
9:00 AM ET. June U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index
9:45 AM ET. August US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 56.2)
9:45 AM ET. August US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 55.5)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. July New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 631K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous -5.3%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.7)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2387B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +33B)
11:00 AM ET. August Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 34)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 49)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 23)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 22)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
N/A U.S. and China impose further tariffs on each other's products
Friday, August 24, 2018
8:30 AM ET. July Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +1.0%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.0%)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7314.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off the late-July low, July's high crossing at 7530.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 7530.00. Second resistance isunknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7314.33. Second support is the late-July low crossing at 7166.75. Third support is June's low crossing at 6956.00.
The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, January's high crossing at 2885.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2800.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2873.50. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2885.30. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2800.68. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2791.90.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 146-11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 145-24. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 146-11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 144-26. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-26.
September T-notes were slightly lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 121.030 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.299 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 120.240. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.124. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.299.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: OctoberNymex crude oil was slightly lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 69.19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 66.16 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 68.86. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 69.16. First support is August's low crossing at 63.89. Second support is June's low crossing at 62.60.
October heating oil was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 219.09 are needed to renew the rally off July's low. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 213.18 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.09. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 224.48. First support is August's low crossing at 208.05. Second support is July's low crossing at 205.41.
October unleaded gas was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 198.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 191.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 199.47. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 201.57. First support is July's low crossing at 185.93. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 183.15. Third support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 177.05.
October Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends August's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If October resumes the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 3.025 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.899 would confirm a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 2.982. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 3.025. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.899. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.865.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 94.79 would open the door for additional weakness and possible test of the late-July low crossing at 93.87. If September resumes this year's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 96.87. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 94.79. Second support is the late-July low crossing at 93.87.
The September Euro was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 116.59 would open the door for additional gains and a possible test of the late-July high crossing at 117.90. If September renews this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 116.59. Second resistance is the late-July-high crossing at 117.90. First support is August's low crossing at 113.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78.
The September British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2919 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2600 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2919. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3106. First support is August's low crossing at 1.2678. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2600.
The September Swiss Franc was slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Wednesday's close above the late-July high crossing at 1.0174 confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of June's high crossing at 1.0302 later this month. If September renews the decline off the June's high, July's low crossing at 0.9984 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.0217. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0302. First support is July's low crossing at 0.9984. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.8880.
The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, August's high crossing at 77.19 is the next upside target. If September resumes this month's decline, July's low crossing at 75.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 77.19. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 77.94. First support is July's low crossing at 75.31. Second support is June's low crossing at 74.80.
The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or near. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 0.8993 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 0.9172 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 0.9126. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 0.9172. First support is the reaction low crossing at 0.8993. Second support is August's low crossing at 0.8943.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1205.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off April's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1205.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1236.50. First support is August's low crossing at 1162.70. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10.
September silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.114 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.7999. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.114. First support is August's low crossing at 14.315. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.
September copper was lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off the late-July high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 271.51 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 271.51. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 282.98. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 255.20. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 3.65 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 3.82 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.89 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.99. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.65 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.50 1/4.
December wheat was lower overnight as it extends this week's sell off. The low-range close sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.38 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 5.82 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 5.82 3/4. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 6.13. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.23 3/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 5-cents at 5.57 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.47 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 5.96 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 5.96. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 6.26. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.47 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.28 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.88 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 6.31 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is August's high crossing at 6.56. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 6.60 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.88 3/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.71 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were lower overnight as it extends this week's decline.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. If November resumes the decline off the late-July high, July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 38% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 9.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.15. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 9.42 3/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 8.51 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4.
December soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off the late-July high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 319.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 331.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 339.40. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 343.20. First support is August's low crossing at 321.10. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 319.40.
December soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes this summer's decline, July's low crossing at 29.78 is the next downside target. Closes above the late-July's high crossing at 29.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.03. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 29.39. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 28.05. Second support is July's low crossing at 29.78.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $2.63 at $53.60.
October hogs gapped down and closed lower on Wednesday leaving a three-day island top on the daily chart. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 52.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 61.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 59.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 61.65. First support is last-Thursday's gap crossing at 52.75. Second support is August's low crossing at 47.82.
October cattle closed down $1.57 at 108.90.
October cattle closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stagefor a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 105.48 is the next downside target. If October extends the rally off August's low, July's high 112.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 112.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33. First support is August's low crossing at 107.65. Second support is July's low crossing at 105.48.
October Feeder cattle closed down $2.30 at $148.62.
October Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 146.35 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 153.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 153.45. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 155.38. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 146.35. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 145.42.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 9.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
September cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.17 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.44 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September resumes this summer's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 19.86 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this summer's decline. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 9.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 86.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 78.35 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!