KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, August 23, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1383.8K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 705K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 803.1K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 212K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -2K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1721000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -39K)
9:00 AM ET. June U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index
9:45 AM ET. August US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 56.2)
9:45 AM ET. August US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 55.5)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. July New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 631K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous -5.3%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.7)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2387B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +33B)
11:00 AM ET. August Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 34)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 49)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 23)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 22)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
N/A U.S. and China impose further tariffs on each other's products
Friday, August 24, 2018
8:30 AM ET. July Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +1.0%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.0%)
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The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7310.24 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, July's high crossing at 7530.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 7530.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7310.24. Second support is the late-July's low crossing at 7166.75.
The September S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this summer's rally, January's high crossing at 2885.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average low crossing at 2799.06 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2873.50. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2885.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2799.06. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2766.70.
The Dow closed lower on Wednesday as the minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee’s most recent meeting reaffirmed the central bank’s hawkish bias. The publication of the Fed’s notes come on a day when investors are trying to determine how the legal drama surrounding President Donald Trump will impact the market even as stocks are on the verge of passing the milestone as the longest bull run in history. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 26,183.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,048.03 would confirm that an important top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 26,183.49. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 26,616.71. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,048.03. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 24,663.82.
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September T-bonds closed up 12/32's at 145-16.
September T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, July's high crossing at 146-11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-21 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 145-24. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 146-11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-21. Second support is August's low crossing at 141-27.
September T-notes closed up 60-points at 120-205.
September T-notes closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 121.030 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.279 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 120.240. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.279. Second support is August's low crossing at 119.025.
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October crude oil closed sharply higher for the fifth day in a row on Wednesday and closed above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 67.72 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 69.19 is the next upside target. If October resumes the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 62.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 68.86. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 69.19. First support is August's low crossing at 63.89. Second support is June's low crossing at 62.60.
October heating oil closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 218.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below August's low crossing at 208.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of July low crossing at 205.41.First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.09. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 224.48. First support is August's low crossing at 208.05. Second support is July's low crossing at 205.41.
October unleaded gas closed sharply higher on Wednesday above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 195.71 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off the late-July high, the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 183.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is the late-July high crossing at 201.57. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 204.04. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 183.15. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 177.05.
October Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off July's low June's high crossing at 3.018 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.891 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 2.982. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 3.025 is the next upside target. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.898. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.891.
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The September Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 94.77 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the late-July low crossing at 93.87. If October renews the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 96.87. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 94.77. Second support is the late-July low crossing at 93.87.
The September Euro closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 116.65 would signal that the short-term trend has turned higher. If September resumes this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 116.65. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 117.90. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 113.27. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78.
The September British Pound closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2930 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2600 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2930. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3117. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 126.78. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2600.
The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Wednesday and above initial resistance marked by the late-July high crossing at 1.0174 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0105 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.0217. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0302. First support is July's low crossing at 0.9984. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.8880.
The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, August's high crossing at 77.20 is the next upside target. If September resumes this month's decline, July's low crossing at 75.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 77.20. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 77.94. First support is July's low crossing at 75.31. Second support is June's low crossing at 74.80.
The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9030 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 0.9172 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 0.9127. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 0.9172. First support is August's low crossing at 0.8943. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.8867.
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October gold closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rebound off last-Thursday's low due to weakness in the U.S. Dollar. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1207.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off April's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1207.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1239.80. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1162.70. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10.
September silver closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.156 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.888. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.156. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 14.315. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.
September copper closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 272.36 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 272.36. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 284.26. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 255.20. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74.
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December Corn closed down 7 1/4-cents at 3.67.
December corn closed lower on Wednesday due to expectations that the corn crop will come in at or near the latest USDA crop estimate of 178.4 bushel-per acre, which would be a new per-acre record. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 3.65 1/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.89 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.89 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.99. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.65 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.50 1/4.
December wheat closed down a 1/4-cent at 5.47 1/2.
December wheat closed fractionally lower for the third day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.38 3/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 5.82 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 6.13. Second resistance is the July-2017 high crossing at 6.22. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.38 3/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.23 3/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 5-cents at 5.57 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.47 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 5.96 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 5.96. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 6.26. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.47 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.28 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down 2 3/4-cents at 6.03 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.89 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 6.31 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 6.56. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 6.60 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average low crossing at 5.89. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.71 3/4.
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November soybeans closed down 15 1/4-cents at 8.70 3/4.
November soybeans closed lower on Wednesday as expectations for a near-record U.S. crop become more certain. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November renews the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.15 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.15. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.42 3/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 8.51 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4.
December soybean meal closed down $3.90 at 323.30.
December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 319.40 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 339.40 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's crossing at 339.40. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 343.20. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 321.10. Second support is weekly support crossing at 319.40.
December soybean oil closed down 37-points. At 28.58.
December soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. If December resumes the decline off the late-July high, July's low crossing at 27.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.08 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.08. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 30.15. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 28.05. Second support is July's low crossing at 27.95.
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October hogs closed down $2.63 at $53.60.
October hogs gapped down and closed lower on Wednesday leaving a three-day island top on the daily chart. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 52.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 61.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 59.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 61.65. First support is last-Thursday's gap crossing at 52.75. Second support is August's low crossing at 47.82.
October cattle closed down $1.57 at 108.90.
October cattle closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stagefor a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 105.48 is the next downside target. If October extends the rally off August's low, July's high 112.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 112.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33. First support is August's low crossing at 107.65. Second support is July's low crossing at 105.48.
October Feeder cattle closed down $2.30 at $148.62.
October Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 146.35 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 153.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 153.45. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 155.38. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 146.35. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 145.42.
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September coffee closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 9.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
September cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.17 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.44 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September resumes this summer's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 19.86 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this summer's decline. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 9.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 86.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 78.35 is the next downside target.