Grains Tuesday
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Started by metmike - Aug. 21, 2018, 11:09 a.m.

For the latest weather the effects growing crops, go here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/10968/

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By metmike - Aug. 21, 2018, 1:45 p.m.
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Crop condition report yesterday:


Corn 68% gd/ex, down 2% vs the previous week. +6% vs 2017.

Beans 65% gd/ex, down 1% vs the previous week. +5% vs 2017.


Nothing to write home about.


http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-08-20-2018.txt


Corn dented 44% vs 26% avg.

Corn in dough stage 85% vs 72% avg. 

Corn way ahead on maturity, with early harvest on the way.


Beans setting pods 91% vs 83% avg.  Beans also ahead on maturity.


Freeze risk this year will be even lower than normal. In any given year, the chance of a significant freeze that takes away production is around 5% or 1 out of 20.  Am in Detroit taking care of Dad, with my records at home but thought it was 1996 when we had the last, early freeze that took away over  100 million in production. 


That one was in mid September and mainly hurt because the beans were planted late as a result of  a wet Spring/planting season. 

The corn crop will be safe by September 15 and beans shortly after that. The current weather maps, going out the farthest are UN favorable for an early freeze, so the 5% historical chance of an early damaging freeze is probably more like 2% right now. 

By metmike - Aug. 21, 2018, 2 p.m.
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                By metmike - Aug. 20, 2018, 11:04 a.m.            

  Export inspections. Up a bit for beans, down a bit for corn/wheat:


https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

By metmike - Aug. 21, 2018, 2:01 p.m.
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Still think the lows are in for corn but with less confidence now.

CZ  around 374.......24c off the lows right now and 54c off the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month Sept.


Corn historical perspective:

Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago   


3 month below September(front month) 


1 year below

                   

5 year below                

                   

 10 year below                

                   

                                    


            

                

By metmike - Aug. 21, 2018, 2:03 p.m.
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I thought the lows were in for bean(and they might be) but that was before the USDA fed the market one of the most bearish crop reports ever.  2019 to have the highest stocks in  history?

SX are now around 888, 53c off the lows(which were 10 year lows), around $1.72 below the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month, Sept. It is conceivable that we can make new lows. 


Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently just above the 10 year lows !!!!!


Soybeans 3 months below......bottom in. 

                   



Soybeans 1 year chart below   

                   
                    


Soybeans 5 years below



Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, Currently, have bounced a bit off of 10 year lows!