KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, August 20, 2018
11:00 AM ET. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks in Kingsport, TN
Tuesday, August 21, 2018
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -1.2%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.0%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.5%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.5%)
4:30 AM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.7M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.6M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.9M)
Wednesday, August 22, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 335.8)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -2.0%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 225.5)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -3.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 927.5)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +0.0%)
10:00 AM ET. July Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 5.38M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous -0.6%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 4.3)
Median Price (USD) (previous 276900)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +5.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 414.194M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +6.805M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 233.128M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.74M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 128.989M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.566M)
Refinery Usage (previous 98.1%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.187M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.741M)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published
Thursday, August 23, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1383.8K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 705K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 803.1K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 212K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -2K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1721000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -39K)
9:00 AM ET. June U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index
9:45 AM ET. August US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 56.2)
9:45 AM ET. August US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 55.5)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. July New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 631K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous -5.3%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.7)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2387B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +33B)
11:00 AM ET. August Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 34)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 49)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 23)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 22)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
N/A U.S. and China impose further tariffs on each other's products
Friday, August 24, 2018
8:30 AM ET. July Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +1.0%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.0%)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as investors remained optimistic that progress was being made in the contentious trade disputes between the U.S. and its major trading partners.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off the late-July low, July's high crossing at 7530.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7303.47 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 7530.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the late-July low crossing at 7166.75. Second support is June's low crossing at 6956.00.
The September S&P 500 was higher overnight and poised to rally to its highest level since January of this year. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off June's low, January's high crossing at 2885.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2796.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2863.00. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2885.30. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2796.30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2791.90.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 146-11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 145-18. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 146-11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-12. Second support is August's low crossing at 141-27.
September T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 121.030 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.238 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 120.200. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is August's low crossing at 119.025. Second support is June's low crossing at 118.295.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: SeptemberNymex crude oil was slightly lower in overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.79 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 62.99 is the next downside target.First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 68.37. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 70.43. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 64.43. Second support is June's low crossing at 62.99.
September heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last- week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.59 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 218.57 are needed to renew the rally off July's low. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 218.57. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 223.88. First support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.59. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 199.85.
September unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the late-July high, the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 196.03 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 206.89 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 206.89. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 210.56. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 196.03. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 189.92.
September Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends August's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.859 would confirm a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 3.018 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 2.973. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 3.018. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.891. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.859.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.26 would would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes this year's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 96.87. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 95.96. Second support is the 20-day moving average low crossing at 95.26.
The September Euro was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.81 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 114.75. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.81. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 113.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78.
The September British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2600 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2956 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2798. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2956. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.2678. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2600.
The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the May-August trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the late-July's high, July's low crossing at 0.9984 is the next downside target. Closes above the late-July high crossing at 1.0174 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.0204. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0302. First support is July's low crossing at 0.9984. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.8880.
The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends this month's decline, July's low crossing at 75.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 77.19. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 77.94. First support is July's low crossing at 75.31. Second support is June's low crossing at 74.80.
The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 0.9172 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 0.8943 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 0.9103. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 0.9172. First support is the reaction low crossing at 0.8943. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.8867.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was higher in overnight trading on ideas that a short-term low may have been posted with last-Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1210.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off April's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1210.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1243.10. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1162.70. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 1162.10.
September silver was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term lower might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.236 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 15.020. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.236. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 14.315. Second support is the December-2015 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 13.620.
September copper was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 273.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off the late-July high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 273.96. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 286.64. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 255.20. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Today marks the start of the Pro-Farmer/Farm Journal Midwest Crop Tour with daily updates. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 3.82 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 3.66 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.89 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.99. First support is August's low crossing at 3.66. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.50 1/4.
December wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rebound off last-Wednesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the July-2017 high crossing at 6.22 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.39 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 6.13. Second resistance is the July-2017 high crossing at 6.22. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.39 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.23 3/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 17-cents at 5.92.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.89 tempering the near-term bearish outlook. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.48 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 6.26. Second resistance is the July-2017 high crossing at 6.42. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.48 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.28 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.25 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 6.56. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 6.60 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.89 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.71 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Monday's low.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 9.14 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November resumes the decline off the late-July high, July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.15. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 9.42 3/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 8.51 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4.
December soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Monday's low, July's high crossing at 343.20 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off the late-July high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 319.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 339.40. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 343.20. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 321.10. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 319.40.
December soybean oil was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the late-July's high crossing at 29.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes this month's decline, July's low crossing at 29.78 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.17. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 29.39. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 28.05. Second support is July's low crossing at 29.78.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed up $3.13 at $58.60.
October hogs gapped up and closed sharply higher on Friday on news that trade talks between the U.S. and China may resume in the near future. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the reaction high crossing at 60.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.82 would temper the bullish outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 58.85. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 60.20. First support is August's low crossing at 47.82. Second support is weekly support crossing at 46.24.
October cattle closed up $1.60 at 110.88.
October cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends today's rally, July's high 112.25 is the next upside target. If October renews the decline off August's high, the reaction low crossing at 105.48 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 112.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33. First support is August's low crossing at 107.65. Second support is July's low crossing at 105.48.
October Feeder cattle closed up $1.63 at $151.85.
October Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 151.40 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends today's rally, the reaction high crossing at 153.45 is the next upside target. If October renews the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 146.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 153.45. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 155.38. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 146.35. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 145.42.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed lower on Friday as it extends this year's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 9.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.77 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
September cocoa closed slightly higher on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If September resumes this summer's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 19.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October sugar closed lower on Friday as it extends this summer's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 9.83 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 11.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October cotton closed lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 78.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 87.43 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks Tallpine!