KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, January 23, 2018
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -1.9%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.7%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +3.0%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +2.6%)
10:00 AM ET. December Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. January Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 20)
Retail Revenues Idx
Services Rev Idx
Shipments Idx (previous 24)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.1M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.8M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.6M)
Refinery Runs
Wednesday, January 24, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 406.3)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +4.1%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 249.2)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +2.7%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1314)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +4.4%)
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter GDP by State
9:00 AM ET. November U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:45 AM ET. January US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 52.4)
9:45 AM ET. January US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 55.0)
10:00 AM ET. December Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (expected 5.75M; previous 5.81M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (expected -1.0%; previous +5.6%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.4)
Median Price (USD) (previous 248000)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +5.8%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 412.654M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -6.861M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 240.942M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.62M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 139.201M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.887M)
Refinery Usage (previous 93.0%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.809M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.17M)
Thursday, January 25, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1890.7K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1527.9K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 190.6K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 235K; previous 220K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -41K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1952000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +76K)
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Economic Indicators Report
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. December New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (expected 695K; previous 733K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (expected -5.2%; previous +17.5%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 4.6)
10:00 AM ET. December Leading Indicators
Leading Index (expected +0.5%; previous +0.4%)
Coincident Index (previous +0.3%)
Lagging Index (previous +0.1%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2584B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -183B)
11:00 AM ET. January Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 21)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 29)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 14)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 22)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, January 26, 2018
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected +0.9%; previous +1.3%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.0%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Advance estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +2.9%; previous +3.2%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +2.2%; previous +2.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.7%)
Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous +2.4%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.3%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +2.2%)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's record trade. However, the Dow and S&P 500 remain poised to extend this year's rally into record territory as investors are cheered by an end to a U.S. government shutdown and signs that earnings season won’t disappoint those looking for another reason to buy stocks. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 index extends this winter's rally into record territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6662.06 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 6858.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6795.57. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6662.06.
The March S&P 500 was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's gainsStochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2747.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2841.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2792.53. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2747.70.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off December's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 145-26 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 151-30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 149-25. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 151-30. First support is Monday's low crossing at 148-12. Second support is weekly support crossing at 145-26.
March T-notes were higher due to short covering overnight as they consolidate some of this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 120.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.076 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 122.246. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.076. First support is the overnight low crossing at 122.015. Second support is weekly support crossing at 120.285.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: MarchNymex crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off last June's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 64.20. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.13. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 59.21.
March heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.21. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 204.76 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 221.96 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.21. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 221.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 204.76. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 197.00.
March unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 192.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 183.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 189.59. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 192.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 183.77. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 178.74.
March Henry natural gas was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.177 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.872 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 3.070. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.177. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.949. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.872.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past six-days. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 87.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 90.71. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.40. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 89.96. Second support is weekly support crossing at 87.45.
The March Euro was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past five-days. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 125.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.12 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 123.69. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 125.34. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 121.96. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.12.
The March British Pound was lower due to profit taking in overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4057 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3659 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.3972. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4057. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3790. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3659.
The March Swiss Franc were slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0326 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0588 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0494. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0588. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0379. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0326.
The March Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight while extending this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 79.48 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41 is the next upside target.First resistance is January's high crossing at 81.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.98. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.48.
The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight and poised to resume this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9141 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.8942 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 0.9104. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9141. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.9026. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.8942.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February resumes the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1349.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1317.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1349.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1365.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1328.60. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1317.30.
March silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.730 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.325. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.730. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 16.140.
March copper was sharply lower overnight and trading below the 50-day moving average crossing at 314.85 as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 314.85 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 323.50 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. Second resistance is the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 314.85. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 311.10.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.54 3/4 are needed to confirm that an important low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off last summer's high, weekly support crossing at 3.32 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.54 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.60 1/2. First support is January's low crossing at 3.45 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32.
March wheat was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.37 are needed to confirm that an important low has been posted. If March resumes last week's decline, December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.37. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.43. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 1-cents at 4.28 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.30 1/2. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 4.43. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.17 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat was steady in quiet trading overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 6.05 is the next downside target. Closes above January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high resistance crossing at 6.51. First support is December's low crossing at 6.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.83 would open the door for additional short covering gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.66 3/4 would signal an end to this month's short covering rebound. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.83. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 9.95 1/2. First support is January's low crossing at 9.44 1/2. Second support is August's low crossing at 9.37 1/2.
March soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last Friday's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 341.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 321.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 341.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-decline crossing at 345.90. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 325.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 321.70.
March soybean oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, last June's low crossing at 31.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.09 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 32.77. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.09. First support is Monday's low crossing at 32.10. Second support is last June's low crossing at 31.85.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $0.28 at $71.80.
February hogs closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 76.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 74.25. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 76.91. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.69. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.95.
February cattle closed up $1.65 at 123.55.
February cattle gapped up and closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 126.78 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 119.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 123.85. Second resistance is the reactio high crossing at 126.78. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.25. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 119.27.
March Feeder cattle closed up $0.23 at $145.83.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 146.60 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 140.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 146.60. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.55. First support is the reaction low crossing at 140.12. Second support is December's low crossing at 138.30.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 11.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.54 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Multiple closes above Thursday's high crossing at 20.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed lower on Monday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the September-2015 low crossing at 12.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.46 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March cotton closed slightly lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 87.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.80 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted.