Grains Tuesday
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Started by metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 10:31 a.m.

For weather that effects the growing crops, go here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/10516/


Massive widespread rains coming up.......extraordinarily rare by August standards.

Mostly beneficial in most places but excessive in some spots. 1 week totals amount to around 2 months worth of average rain in the wet spots.......lesser amounts in N/Northwest belt.


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By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 11 a.m.
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                Started by mcfarm - Aug. 13, 2018, 5:59 p.m.            

                                        https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=799451&mid=6927862#M6927862   notice Illinois especially.  Heat fill and flash droughts come out of no where and are hard and fast. I can tell you a fair amount of Indiana and Minnesota are experiencing the same. With ears starting to hang this rain predicted is far too late for corn...will help some of the beans

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                By metmike - Aug. 13, 2018, 11:57 p.m.            

            

Thanks mcfarm. It's awesome when you send us links like that!

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-08-13-2018.txt




By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 11:01 a.m.
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                By Jim_M - Aug. 13, 2018, 3:49 p.m.            

            

Corn around here is pretty much done.  There are a couple fields when the stalks are drying up.  Granted...not large fields, but it's a sign the crop has matured in some areas and the best is over.  

                                    


          

                By mcfarm - Aug. 13, 2018, 3:54 p.m.            

            

JIM, We have fields that have given up. Even on some very good soils now, not just the hills or light ground, like last week. Still good crops but certainly maturing way to fast and now shrinking. There will be some chopping for silage and shelling right after labor day this year.

             

By metmike - Aug. 10, 2018, 1 p.m.            

            

Obviously the report was mega bearish.  Weather still looks the same.  Tons of rain for MO/IL/IN/OH and possibly in to IA.

Not so much northwest belt. Temps may start cooling more in the extended forecasts, so the weather is being seen as bearish.


USDA Forecasts Record High Corn Yield and Soybean Production for 2018

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/2018/08-10-2018.php

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/crop0818.pdf

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Shocking report from the USDA. Increasing soybean stocks for next year by 200 million bushels to the highest in history. Wow! Am thinking this projection was higher than the highest guess from any of the dozen+ professional services that  the market looks to for serious guidance. 

From Farm Futures:

Afternoon Market Recap for Aug. 10, 2018

https://www.farmfutures.com/afternoon-recap/afternoon-market-recap-aug-10-2018


On beans, what can you say

                      


            

                

By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 11:04 a.m.
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Still think the lows are in for corn but with less confidence now.

CZ  around 372.......22c off the lows right now and 56c off the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month Sept.


Corn historical perspective:

Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago   


3 month below September(front month) 


1 year below

                   

5 year below                

                   

 10 year below                

                   
By metmike - Aug. 14, 2018, 11:08 a.m.
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I thought the lows were in for beans but that was before the USDA fed the market one of the most bearish crop reports ever.  2019 to have the highest stocks in  history?

Below was the comment just before the report:

 "August is pod filling for beans and critical for determining yields. Crop ratings dropped 3% and rains early this week were less than expected..............but big rains are increasing again in next weeks forecast and we have the huge crop report coming up today.


SX has now bounced back to 879, 44c off the lows(which were 10 year lows), around $1.81 below the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month, Sept. It is conceivable that we can make new lows. 


Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently just above the 10 year lows !!!!!


Soybeans 3 months below......bottom in. 

                   



Soybeans 1 year chart below   

                   
                    


Soybeans 5 years below



Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, Currently, after bouncing off of 10 year lows, we are back down there again!

                   
By bcb - Aug. 14, 2018, 11:28 a.m.
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Speaking of IL. corn. Anyone notice that in the excellent number went UP 2% to 32%. That's 1/3 of the crop in IL