Will be in Detroit for another 2 weeks taking care of my Dad but still try to post.
For Weather that effects growing crops go here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/10451/
Rains in the forecast have continued to be abundant...........and even increased the past 2 days(expanded north and west), just adding more ammo to the incredible, shocking USDA report on Friday(for especially beans).
Temperatures have also cooled down which is even more bearish weather fuel at the moment.
By metmike - Aug. 10, 2018, 1 p.m.
Obviously the report was mega bearish. Weather still looks the same. Tons of rain for MO/IL/IN/OH and possibly in to IA.
Not so much northwest belt. Temps may start cooling more in the extended forecasts, so the weather is being seen as bearish.
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/2018/08-10-2018.php
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/crop0818.pdf
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Shocking report from the USDA. Increasing soybean stocks for next year by 200 million bushels to the highest in history. Wow! Am thinking this projection was higher than the highest guess from any of the dozen+ professional services that the market looks to for serious guidance.
From Farm Futures:
https://www.farmfutures.com/afternoon-recap/afternoon-market-recap-aug-10-2018
On beans, what can you say
Still think the lows are in for corn but with less confidence now.
CZ around 369.......19c off the lows right now and 59c off the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month Sept.
Corn historical perspective:
Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago
3 month below September(front month)
1 year below
5 year below
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I thought the lows were in for beans but that was before the USDA fed the market one of the most bearish crop reports ever. 2019 to have the highest stocks in history?
Below was the comment just before the report:
"August is pod filling for beans and critical for determining yields. Crop ratings dropped 3% and rains early this week were less than expected..............but big rains are increasing again in next weeks forecast and we have the huge crop report coming up today.
SX is now trading around 855, just 20c off the lows(which were 10 year lows), around $2.05 below the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month, Sept. It is conceivable that we can make new lows.
Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently just above the 10 year lows !!!!!
Soybeans 3 months below......bottom in.
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Soybeans 1 year chart below
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Soybeans 5 years below
Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, Currently, after bouncing off of 10 year lows, we are back down there again!
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Corn around here is pretty much done. There are a couple fields when the stalks are drying up. Granted...not large fields, but it's a sign the crop has matured in some areas and the best is over.
JIM, We have fields that have given up. Even on some very good soils now, not just the hills or light ground, like last week. Still good crops but certainly maturing way to fast and now shrinking. There will be some chopping for silage and shelling right after labor day this year.