For the weather that effects growing crops, please go here(tons of rain coming up for the central and eastern Cornbelt):
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/10277/
Major USDA report out at 11am matters the most.
The solid lows are in for corn!
CZ at 385 is Trading 31c off the lows right now and 47c off the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month Sept.
Corn historical perspective:
Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago
3 month below September(front month)
1 year below
5 year below
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Lows are in for beans!
August is pod filling for beans and critical for determining yields. Crop ratings dropped 3% and rains this week were less than expected..............but big rains are increasing again in next weeks forecast and we have the huge crop report coming up today.
SX is 61c+ off the lows(which were 10 year lows), still almost $1.64 off the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month, Sept.
Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently just above the 10 year lows !!!!!
Soybeans 3 months below......bottom in.
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Soybeans 1 year chart below
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Soybeans 5 years below
Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, currently, we just bounced off of 10 year lows!
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From earlier in the week:
Lower bean ratings.
Corn down 1%, to 71% gd/ex. Beans down 3% to 67% gd.ex.
Corn 57% in the dough stage vs 37% average............ahead on maturity, though the last 2 weeks were actually a bit cool and slowed things down a tad.
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog3218.txt
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Export inspections from Monday:
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt
Beans were outstanding again.
Corn dropped but still decent, wheat not so good.
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Export sales August 9th:
Started by bcb - Aug. 9, 2018, 7:23 p.m.
I'll take a shot at the trading range tomorrow
CZ Res: 390.50-393
Sup: 375-373
And would like to close at 382.50 or higher if possible.
I do have orders in for CZ9 to hedge at 419
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Started by mcfarm - Aug. 9, 2018, 6:40 p.m.
have to say things are lining up for a bullish report. Exports have been preforming, weather spotty, slight sell off today. I know the gov does very strange things with these reports ad often 360 degrees from logical but it looks like a friendly report and the charts continue upward.
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By wglassfo - Aug. 10, 2018, 2:28 a.m.
Maybe buy the rumour, sell the fact started today[yesterday and tonite]
I dunno
USDA always seems to have a bearish price when report day comes
Maybe I just remember all the down days after any major report
If any surprise comes, might be world stks lower with dry in other countries
.... just got long beans and heavily long corn right before the number otherwise that's all I got going
So:
Corn was down 2-3
Now down 4-5
What is going on??
Expected corn production down 600 million bu
I did post [late last nite] I thought the selling had already started
buy the rumour
Sell the fact
Obviously the report was mega bearish. Weather still looks the same. Tons of rain for MO/IL/IN/OH and possibly in to IA.
Not so much northwest belt. Temps may start cooling more in the extended forecasts, so the weather is being seen as bearish.
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/2018/08-10-2018.php
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/crop0818.pdf
Shocking report from the USDA. Increasing soybean stocks for next year by 200 million bushels to the highest in history. Wow! Am thinking this projection was higher than the highest guess from any of the dozen+ professional services that the market looks to for serious guidance.
From Farm Futures:
https://www.farmfutures.com/afternoon-recap/afternoon-market-recap-aug-10-2018
On beans, what can you say
I got a private blog 30 minutes after the report
Claimed a reduction of 600 million bu of corn based on planted corn acreage and yield
I watched price fall, but posted my info
Obviously this person needs to be put out to pasture
Sorry for incorrect info folks